State of the Heat Riley is gambling that veteran O'Neal can bring Miami the championship Posted: Friday October 1, 2004 3:27PM; Updated: Friday October 1, 2004 3:27PM Dwyane Wade's life got a whole lot easier when the Heat traded for Shaquille O'Neal this summer. Heat At A Glance Head coach -- Stan Van Gundy 2003-04 Season -- Record: 42-40 | Stats Key Additions C Shaquille O'Neal (Lakers) PG Damon Jones (Bucks) SG Wesley Person (Hawks) PG Keyon Dooling (Clippers) C Michael Doleac (Nuggets) Key Losses PF Lamar Odom (Lakers) PF Brian Grant (Lakerss) SF Caron Butler (Lakers) PG Rafer Alston (Raptors) PF Samaki Walker (Wizards) Projected Lineup Starters Reserves PG D. Wade D. Jones SG E. Jones D. Wright SF W. Person R. Butler PF C. Laettner U. Haslem C S. O'Neal M. Doleac This is going to be an interesting experiment. And you've got to give Pat Riley credit for taking a chance: At best, this could be Wilt Chamberlain with the Los Angeles Lakers; at worst, it's Chamberlain with the San Diego Conquistadors. Trading for Shaquille O'Neal is not an unreasonable gamble, considering the returns on such a transaction are usually good. But nothing is guaranteed, and only time will tell if Riley broke up a promising young basketball team to take one more shot at a ring. Riley, however, ensured his Miami Heat franchise would attract more fans, appear on national TV more often and have as good a chance as anyone in the East to reach the Finals. The Heat, who made it to the second round of the playoffs last year after a two-year drought, didn't surprise. This was a quick, dynamic team led by a heady winner from the Midwest and an all-around talent up front. Miami boasted an intelligent rookie coach, who knew the league inside and out. And let's not forget that the team was playing in a pitiful Atlantic division. Take a chance on me Last season, the Heat took a chance on Lamar Odom, a player capable of brilliance but someone who had done nothing but disappoint and frustrate in four years with the Clippers. Injuries and suspensions limited Odom's floor time in Los Angeles, and when he did play, his game didn't seem to develop. In addition to Odom, Miami took a risk on rookie Dwyane Wade, trusting him with the starting point guard position after playing the 2 at Marquette. Coach Stan Van Gundy inherited a Heat team from Riley filled with rookies and youngsters, with the notable exceptions of Tyrone Hill and Bimbo Coles. This was a different squad from the one Riley amassed in '01-02 where names like Jim Jackson, Rod Strickland, Chris Gatling, Kendall Gill, Alonzo Mourning and LaPhonso Ellis dotted the roster. After Caron Butler won over Riley with his play during his '02-03 rookie campaign, the Heat president decided to take a chance on Wade, making him the cornerstone of the team from the outset. Wade was given the leeway to learn on the job. Heat brass recognized Wade as a player who wouldn't get down after a bad game and as someone who could rally his team to win. With Wade steering the ship, Odom was allowed to roam and youngsters like Rasual Butler and Rafer Alston were given big roles. Miami won 42 games, Wade won the hearts of basketball junkies from coast to coast and Odom rehabbed his reputation. The team had upside. The East wasn't getting better, but Riley wouldn't have been satisfied with another 50-win season and second-round playoff ouster in '04-05. Starting anew And Riley knew he couldn't pass up the opportunity to acquire O'Neal, so he initiated the gamble that -- in the end -- wasn't. Odom, Brian Grant and Butler were sent to Los Angeles for O'Neal, the 32-year-old center, who is fresh off a season in which he posted a career-low in points per game (21.5). O'Neal hasn't played more than 79 games since the '93-94 season and hasn't looked comfortable running up and down the court since '00-01, the year in which he won his first championship and his only MVP trophy. O'Neal will make $62 million over the next two seasons, and his contract will expire in '06. But after his current deal expires, the Heat will only have Eddie Jones (one year left), Wade and rookie Dorell Wright on their books. That's a lot of financial freedom, especially if O'Neal (at age 34) takes a Kevin Garnett-sized pay cut to stick around Florida. Riley is in the driver's seat, he gets a motivated O'Neal for two years, then a blank slate in '06 while Odom and Grant's contracts are stuck in L.A. Not bad. Wade's world A lot will be asked of Wade in his second season. Not only will he have to eclipse last year's numbers (16.2 points per game) after a summer of international play, he'll have to balance out the offense. He has to get O'Neal the ball, but he's also going to have to make life easier for his less-talented teammates. He has to keep O'Neal's respect, and that's no easy task. But Wade can handle it. Jones was the Heat's leading scorer last season, playing solidly in 81 games and averaging 17.3 points. His clock is ticking -- he'll turn 33 a week before the season begins -- and his ever-increasing reliance on the three-pointer (he averaged nearly six attempts a game last season) is worrisome. Jones defends well and can finish in transition, but his production dwindled in the playoffs: His scoring average dropped to 13.2 points per game and he shot just 37 percent. Jones is a career 38 percent shooter from behind the arc, and he'll need to match that in '04-05, if O'Neal is going to have room to work down low. The rest of the Heat After that, things get a little dicey. Butler is an intriguing talent at small forward, but the Heat could do better. Most likely, Jones will see a lot of time at the three (in the East, it hardly matters), while Wade and either Damon Jones or Keyon Dooling run in the backcourt. Wesley Person and rookie Wright will also see time at the wing. Kind of makes you pine for LaPhonso Ellis? Udonis Haslem is an absolute bull. He'll start at power forward where he averaged 7.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game in his rookie season. Haslem is a strong, sturdy player who will only get better. But the Heat need spacing in the frontcourt around O'Neal, which is why Christian Laettner will get as many minutes as his 35-year old body can handle. Malik Allen is another talented youngster, and he'll find some time at the four. Also look for Wang Zhizhi to play there, as well. This isn't a deep team, trading two starters and your top bench player will do that to a squad, but Riley has made solid pickups since acquiring O'Neal. He'll have to do it again next summer, as O'Neal and Jones alone will make $47 million, and he'll have to keep an eye on available free agents as the Heat make their way through '04-05. Van Gundy will have his hands full, even with a simple eight-man rotation. He knows the X's and O's and has a knack for cutting through the bluster and getting to the point. But this is a new challenge. O'Neal gets moody, and he needs time off. And Wade will be under a great deal of pressure. Nobody is awarding the Heat a ticket to the Finals, but the expectations are there. Time for O'Neal to deliver.
Yeah, I read it. Seems like an alright estimate. Noone is quite sure fully what to expect of us until the season starts. Haslem could be the next Boozer this year. Wade could break out even more, and Shaq could possibly be the MVP... nobody knows what's gonna happen. Or the worst case scenario would be a career ending injury to Wade and Shaq... bu tI'm not even gonna talk about that, because of bad karma.
I actually think that Butler will really step up this year. Last year his shot selection was great and if I'm not mistakened he lead the league in field-goal %-age. He always seemed to be in Careon's shadow since he's been in the NBA and now is his time and just needs some face time on the court and not on the bench.
