I don't think there's been a more debated aspect of Dunleavy's game than his outside shooting. But here's my bold prediction for next year: Mike Dunleavy will be one of the top 10-15 three point shooters in the league next year. (Careful though, as you'll find out, that doesn't put him in the same company you'd think it would.) Dunleavy shot 37% from 3 last year, up from 34.7% the year before. He also made 94 3's, up from 52 the year before. There were only 22 players in the league that made more 3's than Dunleavy last year while shooting better than 37%. Just imagine how good he'll be if he makes the same kind of improvement next year. And he should improve, given that he and Pietrus will get most of the sf minutes and Dunleavy will be expected to carry a lot more of the scoring load with Damp and NVE gone. Just because it's late and I'm looking for a diversion, here's what Dunleavy's numbers would be if he made a proportionate improvement in year 3 to the one he made in year two: Y1: 52 made at 34.7% Y2: 94 made at 37% Y3 (projected): 169 made at 39.3% Now these numbers have little basis in reality because I'm not accounting for the differences in the amount of minutes per game Dunleavy played in his first year compared to last year or the fact that he only played in 75 games last year as opposed to 82 his first year along with a host of other factors that can't be calculated. But I'm simply trying to make a point. Dunleavy turned himself into a pretty good shooter last year, and that was with a coach who didn't like him or have any confidence in his game. Now Dunleavy has a coach that loves his game and a front office that's backing him. He and Richardson will be the two main options on the team, so that will mean more shots and probably a lower shooting percentage. He won't have Damp's inside presence to help free him up, but he will have guys like Richardson, Pietrus, and Claxston driving to the land and dishing out to him. If the vets can get Dunleavy to step up on the court and start taking games over, I think Dunleavy could easily become one of the top 3 point marksmen in the league. My guess is that he goes from taking 3.4 3's a game to around 5-5.5 and makes about 35-37%. If he does that he'll make around 145-165 3's, which would make him one of the top 15 shooters in the league. What does this all mean? Not a whole lot. Guys like Eddie Jones, Rafer Alston, Jamal Crawford, and Damon Stoudemire were all in the top 10 in 3's made (and with the exception of Crawford, all shot around 37%). But I do know that one of the ingredients to building a successful team is having a guy like that who can stretch the defenses. By the way, here's another useless bit of trivia from last season: Quick can you think of the top 10 guys in 3 pointers made last year? I bet your list would include guys like Reggie Miller, Pierce, Nowitzki, Ray Allen, Brent Barry, Michael Redd, and Allan Houston right? I know mine did. But, NONE of them were in the top 10 in three's made last year. I was shocked at who's actually in the top ten: 1. Peja 240 2. Baron 187 3. Eddie Jones 177 4. McGrady 174 5. Crawford 165 6. Mobley 164 7. Jim Jackson 162 8. Rafer Alston 161 9. Stoudemire 156 10. Finley 150 And except for Baron and Crawford, everyone shot at least 36% from three. So like I said, getting Dunleavy among the league leaders isn't a automatic indicator of success, it would certainly help. Without guys like Dunleavy to keep defenses honest, the other team's could collapse on Richardson or Speedy when they drive to the lane and the whole offense would break down. With him it frees up the middle of the court for who ever is posting up or driving to the hoop.
I did not realize he was shooting from 3pt what some guys shoot from the field. I am impressed. Go Dunleavy!
