This is based on watching all of one preseason game on an undersized laptop with a bad internet connect, so take it for what it's worth: I think Rose will have a slight drop in his scoring and shooting percentage. The offense looks to me to be brilliantly situated for Boozer, Korver and Deng. This means dropping all of the high pick and roles that Rose flourished with. Rose has never struck me as a quick learner and a player with a broad range of moves. He seems to me to have no limitations on his game, but that it takes him time to develop a vocabulary for new situations and confidence in new systems, which is fine. I think it's going to take him a full season to learn how to work his game in Thibodeau's more complex offense, and that he will slip a little bit this upcoming season. For the upcoming season, I'm guessing he'll put up between 18 and 19 points, on 46%-47% shooting. I think his rebounding will be about the same, and that he will have slightly more assists. I also think he will have a lot more steals, maybe one more per game.
I think Rose is gonna do better. I see the potential for this, but I think several factors are going to work in Rose's favor. First, he's by all acounts worked very hard and very closely with Thibs this summer. So insofar as he can learn quickly, he's certainly giving it the old 1 year at Memphis rarely attending classes try. I also think the basic system they're using has been very successful with PGs of similar but much lesser offensive skill (eg Rondo). I'd expect he'll have a lot more assists because he'll find guys open, and I think his turnovers are going to fall. But I could be wrong. Even if he doesn't immediately get it, if he eventually gets it I think he'll as well suited to it as he is to any system.
I think Rose will do better this year as well. Mostly because I think Thibs is a smart guy and he'd be an idiot to implement a basketball system that didn't cater to Rose's particular aptitudes. While I do think Thibs probably has a 'philosophy' that may be similar to the 'jib' stuff of PaxSkiles, I don't think he'd take it to the point of implementing it to the point that it didn't fit our players.
