<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">So all that in mind, here are some gut-instinct reads on area players involved in the draft and how the draft will play out in three weeks: ?Marvin Williams, North Carolina - Williams will almost certainly go to Atlanta with the No. 2 pick, after Milwaukee takes Utah's Andrew Bogut at No. 1. Williams simply has too much upside for the Hawks to risk passing up. They have a far bigger need at point guard, and that's why there has been speculation they would go for Chris Paul or Deron Williams instead. But Billy Knight, the Hawks' GM, knows that if he passes over Marvin Williams and he turns out to be a superstar, this would be Sam Bowie II. Knight's job is precarious enough as it is to take a chance like that. Trading the pick would be equally risky, especially for Knight's long-term employment future. ?Chris Paul, Wake Forest - Best odds right now are that Paul winds up with the Charlotte Bobcats, either as the No. 3 or No. 5 pick. The Bobcats like Paul more than any other team high in the draft and have the resources to trade up to get him, if that's what it takes. Contrary to some speculation, there's no way that Paul will wind up in Atlanta; even if they took a point guard, they like Deron Williams better. Portland needs guards but is committed to grooming Sebastian Telfair, their top pick last year, at point guard. New Orleans, at four, would also prefer Deron Williams to Paul, mostly because of the size factor. The Bobcats need a foundation player with area ties, and Paul fills the bill. Plus, Paul, with his quickness and floor-general abilities, is the prototype point guard in Bernie Bickerstaff's system. Bernie loves Paul. So how do the Bobcats ensure themselves of getting Paul? The perfect scenario is to trade the No. 5 pick plus something to Portland for the No. 3 pick. Bickerstaff is willing to give up a future conditional No. 1 from Toronto, if necessary. That deal would make tons of sense for both teams. The Blazers expected to wind up with the sixth pick before the lottery, got lucky and moved up to three. They've had their sights set on high-schooler Gerald Green all along, and they could still get Green - plus a future first-round pick - by trading down with Charlotte. The Blazers are talking to Boston about trading the No. 3 pick, but that's probably a ploy to make Bickerstaff panic. In reality, it would be counterproductive for the Blazers to trade that far down - Boston has the 18th pick, and Green certainly wouldn't be around at 18. The Bobcats could sit tight and still have a chance of getting Paul - if Milwaukee took Bogut, Atlanta took Marvin Williams, Portland took Green and New Orleans took Deron Williams. Portland could throw a monkey wrench in all this by trading the No. 3 pick to someone other than Charlotte, or by going ahead and drafting Paul. If that happened, the Bobcats would have the security of knowing that North Carolina's Raymond Felton would still be available at No. 5. But neither scenario seems as likely as the ones with Paul winding up in the Bobcats orange. ?Raymond Felton, North Carolina - Could go as high as No. 5 if Paul and Marvin Williams are already gone when the Bobcats pick. He's the Bobcats' "safety net." It's hard to believe he could drop any farther than No. 10 to the Los Angeles Lakers, especially since Mitch Kupchak calls the Lakers shots and point guard is an area of need. Felton is one guy who impresses scouts and GMs much more "off the record" than what you've been reading on the record, so he is more likely to move up the draft board than down it. Don't believe any projections sending Felton to New York at No. 8, though; Stephon Marbury would take it personally, and a mutiny would ensue. Same with Golden State, which has Baron Davis, at No. 9. ?Sean May, North Carolina - Definitely in the mix to go to the Bobcats at No. 13, and could go as high as No. 9 to Golden State. No reputable mock drafts have him going lower than 15. May has plenty of things to like, including his hands, rebounding ability, and knowledge of the game. The biggest concern is whether he can succeed as an undersized power forward. He's measuring in at 6-81/2, which means different things to different people. The Bobcats know they could definitely benefit from drafting a UNC player, and May is the most mature of the four even if he doesn't have the biggest upside. How he would fit in with Emeka Okafor remains the question, though. ? Jarrett Jack, Georgia Tech - Jack is the guy that scouts rave about off the record, and the sense here is that he'll go significantly higher than most projections. He's got the size, the style, and the mentality that is perfect for an NBA point guard. If the Bobcats don't take a point guard with their first pick, they could be all over Jack at No. 13. ? Rashad McCants, North Carolina - Definite first-rounder but he seems to have fallen out of the lottery, which means that something in the low 20s is likely. Questions about his attitude and maturity level have resurfaced, even though he appeared to grow up a lot this past season. Dropping to a team late in the first round would cost McCants some money, but it could work to his advantage the way that Josh Howard benefited a few years back. It would put him in a low-pressure situation with a good team that could utilize his strengths - shooting the basketball - while hiding his weaknesses. ? Julius Hodge, N.C. State - It's been a roller-coaster ride for Hodge up and down the draft boards for the past year, but now he seems set to be a definite first-round pick - and he is hoping to go somewhere in the late teens. That's incredible, since midway through the season he had dropped into the bottom half of the second round. Hodge is a lot like Sean May in the sense that there are plenty of things to be concerned about, but the bottom line is, he knows how to play basketball. Not everyone in this draft has that mentality. ? Daniel Ewing, Duke - Early second round. ? Jawad Williams, North Carolina - Early to the middle of the second round.</div> Source
