The NBA Real Team Ratings with about 6 weeks left in the regular season are here. There is a new, small adjustment included for the first time. Since there is a mild reverse correlation between pace and winning in the playoffs, there is from now on a "Pace Overweight Adjustment" included. Although the amount of this adjustment is small, it was enough in this case to move the Cleveland Cavaliers from a very small amount behind the Lakers to a very small amount ahead of them. REAL TEAM RATINGS Teams Rated According to Playoffs Potential NBA: NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION AS OF MARCH 5, 2009 1 Cleveland Cavaliers 51.80 2 Los Angeles Lakers 49.80 3 Boston Celtics 49.10 4 Orlando Magic 35.10 5 Houston Rockets 22.70 6 San Antonio Spurs 16.20 7 Utah Jazz 12.40 8 Portland Trail Blazers 10.70 9 New Orleans Hornets 10.00 10 Denver Nuggets 5.20 11 Dallas Mavericks -6.90 12 Atlanta Hawks -9.10 13 Phoenix Suns -15.00 14 Miami Heat -15.10 15 Detroit Pistons -15.10 16 Philadelphia 76ers -19.60 17 Chicago Bulls -23.10 18 Milwaukee Bucks -24.00 19 Charlotte Bobcats -24.50 20 Indiana Pacers -26.80 21 New Jersey Nets -31.60 22 New York Knicks -35.30 23 Golden State Warriors -47.10 24 Toronto Raptors -53.00 25 Memphis Grizzlies -54.90 26 Washington Wizards -63.90 27 Oklahoma City Thunder -64.20 28 Minnesota Timberwolves -67.80 29 Los Angeles Clippers -74.20 30 Sacramento Kings -86.20 QUEST COMMENTS AND PROJECTIONS Since obviously we are going to stand by the accuracy of these ratings, as far as Quest for the Ring is concerned, the Cleveland Cavaliers are very much for real in this year's Quest, and are not only a threat to the Celtics' getting the ring, but are also a threat to the Lakers getting it as well. Of course, whether the Cavaliers could actually win the Quest would depend largely on one single player: LeBron James. Generally speaking, this year's Quest is way too close to call between the Celtics, the Lakers, and LeBron James (the Cavaliers). The Magic are a darkhorse possibility; they have in terms of probability roughly a 2% chance of winning the Quest. At the beginning of the season, it was hoped that the Rockets and/or the Hornets would be competitive with the Lakers, but this was not to be. It is next to impossible that any other team other than the Lakers, the Celtics, the Cavaliers, or the Magic will win it this year. For example, even the Spurs are simply not fully competitive with these teams this year. The Nuggets are the NBA's most surprising team this year, but our system rates them lower than most other raters do, and our system shows that the Nuggets are probably not going to win a playoff series, unless they are able to take full advantage of another team's injury, such as Tracy McGrady's injury for the Rockets. The Pistons are one of the NBA's most surprising teams on the downside this year. Nevertheless, unless they have to play the Celtics, the Cavaliers, or the Magic in round one, the Pistons still have a very decent potential to win a playoff series this spring, precisely because they have a lot of talent that has been mostly hiding out so far this year. Given how much trouble the Magic have had with defeating the Pistons in head to head games in recent years, including this year, it is not yet out of the question that the Pistons can defeat the Magic in a playoff series. The Magic seem to be very disrupted by the way the Pistons play defense. But as the ratings show, you would have to say as of now that the Magic would be heavily favored over the Pistons if they play in the playoffs this year. Quest is currently sticking with our Championship forecast of Lakers 4 Celtics 3, but quite honestly the thing is up for grabs between the Lakers and Celtics, and very possibly the Cavaliers as well. The User Guide has been updated extensively. USER GUIDE FOR REAL TEAM RATINGS REPORTS Updated as of March 5, 2009 The Real Team Ratings(RTR)are intended to rate teams with respect to how much success they are most likely to have in the playoffs. They are not intended to be simply a summary of how well teams have done. The ratings are calculated for all teams, even though 14 of the 30 NBA teams do not qualify for the playoffs. Even though they will not be playing any playoff games, the ratings for the lower teams nevertheless give an accurate measure of how well those teams would most likely do if they were in the playoffs. So for those lottery teams, RTR is an interesting hypothetical. As of 2009 the RTR rating system was improved. It was improved to make absolutely certain that you can predict the outcome of the playoffs in advance as accurately as possible. All crucial factors are now included and weighted very carefully. The biggest and most important improvement for 2009 and beyond was the introduction of points for wins over and points subtracted for losses to the top 16 teams (which would be the playoff teams themselves.) Broadly speaking, the system is a combination of net efficiency (net points per 100 possessions), net points per game, the defensive overweight adjustment, the wins and losses against playoff bound teams, and the relatively small pace overweight adjustment. Each of these is now described in detail. THE FIVE FACTORS USED FOR REAL TEAM RATINGS 1.NET EFFICIENCY Offensive Efficiency minus Defensive Efficiency equals Net Efficiency. A weight of 2.0 is applied to Net Efficiency. 1a. Offensive Efficiency: Points Scored per 100 Possessions 1b. Defensive Efficiency: Points Allowed per 100 Possessions Note that net efficiency, or net points gained or lossed per each 100 possessions, is double weighted, whereas the simple net points per game is single weighted. In the original version of the Real Team Ratings, the efficiency was single weighted and the points per game was not a part of the system. 2.NET POINTS PER GAME Points Per Game Scored Minus Points Per Game Allowed. A weight of 1.0 is applied to Net Points Per Game. In other words, the straight up points scored per game minus points allowed per game is input into the formula. 3.DEFENSIVE OVERWEIGHT ADJUSTMENT The teams are sorted by defensive efficiency. Then, using a range from 5.8 to -5.8, points are assigned, in equal increments of .4, to each team in order of how it ranks according to defensive efficiency. Specifically, the team with the best defensive efficiency (fewest points allowed per 100 possessions) is given 5.8 points, the 2nd most defensively efficient team gets 5.4 points, the third most defensively efficient team gets 5.0 points, and so on, until the least defensively efficient team gets minus 5.8 points. It is well known that, for the playoffs, how well a team can defend is generally somewhat more important than during the regular season. This factor answers the need to overweight defending in order to get accurate playoff projections. The adjustment gives an increase or a decrease in every team's rating in accordance with how each team ranks in defensive efficiency in the NBA. The amount of the adjustment is carefully calibrated to be sufficient without being excessive. Since almost all teams ramp up their defense in the playoffs, you have to be careful here to avoid getting carried away and putting in adjustments that are too large. 4.WINS OVER AND LOSSES TO PLAYOFF TEAMS Each team's win-loss record is accessed for games it played against the top 16 teams and, separately, each team's win-loss record is accessed for games it played against the top 10 teams. These two records are added together, which has the effect of double weighting wins and losses versus top 10 teams, while leaving wins and losses versus the 11th through the 16th best teams single weighted. In other words, the sum of the wins versus the top 10 teams is added to the sum of the wins versus the top 16 teams, and the sum of these two sums is added to the overall Real Team Rating formula (with weight of simply 1.0). Losses in games against the top 10 and against the top 16 are subtracted from the overall Real Team Rating in the same way that the wins are added. This factor, wins over and losses to playoff teams, is the key improvement from the early versions of RTR, and helps to clearly establish Real Team Ratings as the most accurate playoff predictor possible. By counting in the overall formula actual wins and losses in games between the likely playoff teams, you have gone in a straight line directly to evidence for the question we are out to answer: how good are the teams really going to be in the playoffs, according to everything known now? 5.PACE OVERWEIGHT ADJUSTMENT The teams are sorted by pace. Pace for each team is the average number of possessions per game for that team's games. Then, using a range from 2.9 to -2.9, points are assigned, in equal increments of .2, to each team in order of how it ranks according to pace. Specifically, the team with the slowest pace (fewest possessions per game) is given 2.9 points, the 2nd slowest pace team gets 2.7 points, the third slowest pace team gets 2.5 points, and so on, until the fastest pace team gets minus 2.9 points. The reason for the pace adjustment is that there is a mild but definite correlation between slower pace and winning playoff series. It is a little more difficult, on average, for fast pace teams to win playoff series than it is for slow pace teams to win them. Therefore, a small adjustment called the pace overweight adjustment is factored in to RTR. Why exactly do slower paced teams have a slightly easier job winning playoff series? Consider an example. For example, consider the Denver Nuggets. They are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA during the regular season. If you just look at the efficiency measures, the Nuggets might appear to be almost identical to another, much slower team. But these two teams would be very different when you look at efficiency and pace together. In theory, slower paced teams can more reliably reproduce their nice regular season net efficiency in the playoffs than can faster paced teams, mostly because the playoffs feature a higher defensive intensity and aggressiveness, which automatically slows down the pace. Suppose that in the playoffs, the fast paced Nuggets and a slow paced team play. Each team had almost exactly the same offensive, defensive, and net efficiency numbers during the regular season. By playing extra hard on defense, the slow pace team can automatically slow down the game to some degree, which will disrupt the offensive (and possibly the defensive) efficiency of the Nuggets, the team that was fast pace in the regular season. In other words, there will be fewer possessions for the fast pace team in the playoff games than it typically had in the regular season. This in turn means that the fast pace team will be disrupted from what they did during the regular season to one extent or another. This means that for the fast pace team, both the offensive and the defensive efficiency could change in the playoffs from what it was in the regular season, due to all of the changes forced on the fast pace team by the change of pace. Both the offensive and the defensive efficiency might change, and each change could be either for the better or for the worse, but by far the most likely changes would be that the offense would be substantially less efficient, while the defense would not be changed much. A much less efficient offense, but about the same defense, is exactly what we have seen from the Nuggets in their numerous playoff series losses in recent years. In extreme cases, such as the fastest pace team being slowed down dramatically in the playoffs by an extremely slow team, the pace adjustment may be inadequate, so that there may still be some forecast error even after everything we have done. The bottom line is that in all known cases, faster paced teams do not do as well in the playoffs as they do in the regular season, all other things equal. If a fast paced team wants to win in the playoffs, it would be wise to do some things better in the playoffs than they did those things in the regular season, in order to compensate for being forced to operate at a slower pace. CALCULATION OF RTR: THE FORMULA The easiest way to describe the final calculation of RTR is to give you the formula. RTR = 2 X Net Efficiency + Net Points per Game + Defense Overweight Adjustment + Number of Wins Over Top 10 Teams + Number of Wins Over Top 16 Teams - Number of Losses To Top 10 Teams - Number of Losses To Top 16 Teams + Pace Overweight Adjustment OTHER FACTORS THAT COULD SWING A SERIES ARE UNKNOWABLE To get even better accuracy than RTR, you would have to know what the injury situation is going to be in late April and throughout May and June. And you would have to start guessing how unmeasurable factors such as currently unknown coaching strategies and possible injury problems will affect individual playoff series. IT IS NOT SAFE TO USE THE RTR TO TRY TO WIN MONEY BETTING ON GAMES OR SERIES As of 2009 you can no longer use the actual ratings as a starting point for estimations of final score margins of games between teams, which is no real loss, because you could not do that very accurately with the previous system anyway. Remember, you should never bet money on the outcome of games or even on the outcome of playoff series, because there are always variables that neither you nor anyone else will be aware of that will go into determining the outcome of each game.
An addition to the User Guide... As a brand new thing, this scale may have to be tweaked a little in the future. But there won't be any huge changes. INTERPRETATION OF RATINGS GUIDELINES: TO BE USED AFTER MARCH 1 OF EACH YEAR ONLY Of all the popular American sports Leagues, the NBA is the one where the better team is most likely to avoid being upset in the playoffs. Therefore, the RTR system can be used to gain knowledge of which team is most likely to win playoff series. However, due to statistical error, especially unavoidable error introduced by the counting of wins and losses among the best 16 teams, there has to be a 3-4 points difference between teams before you can start to have any confidence at all that one team will defeat another in the playoffs. Aside from statistical error, there are also unknown factors, especially what the injury situation will be for the teams. Another factor that becomes a big one when two teams with very similar ratings are playing is home court advantage. Home court advantage is estimated to be worth between 5 and 7.5 points. Interpretation of ratings is not very useful before March 1, due to the need for a fairly high percentage of the season to be over before the projections are statistically meaningful, and due to the fact that the ratings are not relative to time, but rather expand with time. In the numeric interpretaton guide that follows, the word "roughly" is repeatedly used in front of the probability numbers, as a reminder about statistical error, and to emphasize that unknown factors, especially injuries, will in some cases result in substantially different actual probabilities. The probability percentages are based on the historical results in the NBA: DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 0 AND 3.9 The series is a toss-up, when statistical error is considered. There is a strong possibility of a 7 game series. The higher team has roughly a 64% probability of winning the series if it also has home court advantage. But if the slightly higher team does not have home court advantage, then the lower team has a roughly 60% probability of winning the series. These probabilities are too low for anyone to have any confidence in using this system to say who will win. DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 4.0 AND 7.9 The series can easily go either way, although the higher team has a slight edge, and roughly a 72% probability of winning if it also has home court advantage. If however the higher team does not have home court advantage, then the probability that the higher team will wins drops to roughly 54%, a probability so small that the series is essentially a toss-up. In the latter case, there is a strong possibility of a 7 game series. DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 8.0 AND 11.9 The series can go either way, but the higher team has a clear edge. The higher team has a roughly 78% chance of winning the series if it has home court advantage, and roughly a 65% chance of winning the series if it does not have the home court advantage. DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 12.0 AND 15.9 The higher team has roughly a 90% probability of winning the series if it also has the home court advantage, and roughly an 80% chance of winning the series if it does not have the home court advantage. DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 16.0 AND 19.9 The higher team has roughly a 96% probability of winning the series if it also has the home court advantage, and roughly a 90% probability of winning the series if it does not have the home court advantage. DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 20.0 AND 23.9 The higher team has roughly a 98% probability of winning the series if it also has the home court advantage. It is basically impossible that the higher team will not also have the home court advantage. DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS BETWEEN 24.0 AND 27.9 The higher team has at least a 99% probability of winning the series. It is impossible that the higher team will not also have the home court advantage. DIFFERENCE IN RATINGS IS 28.0 OR MORE It is close to a 100% certainty that the higher team will win the series. It is impossible that the higher team will not also have the home court
