http://www.sloansportsconference.co...Points-and-Valuing-Decisions-in-Real-Time.pdf Don't know what to think of the system, but one real interesting result: 3 Blazers (LMA, Wes, Dame) rank in the top 10. 2 TWolves (Rubio and Love) are rated rock bottom.
Yes, last page on Table 1, 3 Blazers in the top 10 of some stat called EPVA...is this some ecology movement ruse?
I stopped reading when I read "A new microeconomics for the NBA" The game has been around since 1891 which was closer to the "British Are coming, The British are coming!!!" days then today. With that said, I don't really think that we can learn to much more about the game of basketball.
A new microeconomics for the NBA. Okay, now he's stopped reading, I can make fun. "Hey, and atoms have been around since the Big Bang, so why are particle physicists even bothering to try to learn more?"
I like the idea, and the interesting part? Those stats are from 12-13. I wonder where we'd be now. Also, Russel Westbrook is down there with love and Rubio. Makes me wish the Lakers get Love and Westbrook somehow and watch them fail miserably!
I would say this is closer to what teams use internally than what you read in the boxscores. They should be comparing their system to one of the newer systems though. I think everyone knows that all points, assists, and rebounds are not created equal.
So, CP3's #1 ranking is based on 11 games were he shot 6% higher FG% than his season average and LeBron's 23rd ranking was based on 17 games where he shot 7% less than his season average. Obviously, more complete data is needed to determine the validity of this new stat or comparing players overall impact. I look forward to seeing a complete list of all players based on the complete 2013-14 SportVU data. Although the data set isn't complete, I love that Rubio and Westbrook are ranked so low. It confirms what I've been saying about both players for quite some time - that they actually hurt their teams more than they help them. I first commented in Westbrook hurting the Thunder in the payoffs nearly three years ago by taking shots away from more efficient scorers (Durant and Harden) - especially in the 4th quarter of close games. Last year in the playoffs, Westbrook took more shots that Durant and froze out Durant multiple times in the 4th quarter of close games. When you, as a PG, are taking more shots than a four time scoring champion during the prime of his career, you're not doing your job. I also don't think it's a coincidence that the Thunder won a higher percentage of their games after Westbrook went down (which I predicted at the time) and then immediately went on a 3-game losing streak when he returned. Without Westbrook holding him back, Durant played the best ball of his career. He's so much more efficient than Westbrook. The problem is Westbrook's ego won't let him play Robin to Durant's Batman. So, he'll always take shots away from Durant, which hurts the Thunder. So, I'm cool with that. I hope Westbrook has a LONG, healthy career in OKC. It will do one of two things - hurt the Thunder in the playoffs by limiting Durant's ability to carry the team to victory, or it will force Durant to become disgruntled and force his way out of Cow Town. As long as Durant doesn't end up a Laker, I'm fine with that. Rubio is such a horrid shooter team's do not respect his shot and totally back off him when the game is on the line, which leaves his team playing 4 on 5 on the offensive end. That's why Minnesota has such a terrible record in close games over the past two seasons. Recently, Adelman has been benching Rubio in favor of Barea in the 4th quarter. That tells you how bad Rubio is with the game on the line. Adelman would rather go with a midget that can't play defense and shoots .407 from the field than play his former lottery pick with the game on the line. Shouldn't come as any surprise. The other high lottery pick Kahn took that year, Jonny Flynn isn't even in the league any more. That was the most PG rich raft in NBA history. There were 10 PGs taken in the first round, Kahn took the first two at 5 and 6 and got two of the worst. Rubio and Flynn have combined for a total of 8.3 WS. Steph Curry has 34.2 WS. Ty Lawson (who Kahn actually picked at 18 and traded away) has 29.6 WS, Brandon Jennings, 23.0 WS, Darren Collison 20.2 WS, Jeff Teague 17.2 WS, Jrue Holiday 16.1 WS, even Tony Douglas take at 29 has as many WS (8.3) as Rubio and Flynn combined. Just magine how much better Minnesota would be if they had taken any two of those players instead of Rubio and Flynn. But, that's why Minnesota is Minnesota and is going to miss the playoffs yet again. I would never want either of these players on my team, and this new stat confirms what I've seen with my eyes and the conclusions I've reached by looking at other stats. It will be interesting to see what a full season's worth of data will look like for the entire league. I wonder how many GMs are already using a similar system to evaluate potential trades and free agent signings. I wonder if leveling the playing field by making the same data available to all teams will take away the advantage of the teams that have been compiling their own advanced stats for years. BNM
