http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/ Romney 49-45% Personally I don't place much in such polls as the data sample seems small to me. Also, Obama has led so much it's hard to think the debate gave so much strength to Romney. What it does say to me is that the race has tightened maybe to a dead heat.
First time all political season: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
That debate really hurt Obama. He is suppose to be a president for the people (middle class) but instead he went into the debate as though he didn't care about it and scoffed at Romney. Quite frankly he came across as an elitist who thinks he has the re-election in the bag and doesn't need to do any work to get votes . . . and I think a lot of voters didn't appreciate that.
This is an interesting perspective. Mostly because my feeling has been that he's spend more time campaigning in the last 1.5 years that doing his job. He's spent almost half of his time as president campaigning for the next four years.
Well he would have been better served spending some of that time preparing for a debate rather than trying to raise money, IMO.
I purposely did not watch the debate because I am aware of how factors such as lighting, sound systems, staging and other TV nuances can decieve the viewer and affect how speakers are perceived by the viewer, but I did read the complete transcript. As far as what each candidate actually said in response to the actual questions asked of each, I felt Obama clearly came across as the most knowledgeable, most qualified, and certainly most able to provide actual facts to support his answers. Romney really did not say anything of substance at all, completely ducked most questions, and clearly has very little knowledge of the world for a supposed "businessman". Hard to imagine he actually governed a state once upon a time.
Yeah, a couple nationwide polls might say Romney has a shot, but until one of these starts showing things as being a bit closer, I'm not really buying it http://www.colleyrankings.com/election2012/ http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
The president now leads, 50% to 45%, among registered voters in the seven-day rolling average for Oct. 1-7, according to Gallup.
7-day rolling average for Oct 1, Oct 2 (before the debate), Oct 3 (day of the debate), and 4 days since. Registered voters on Gallup.com today is Obama 49, Romney 46. Likely voters on Gallup.com today is Romney 49%, Obama 47%. Doyle McManus, a regular on PBS, writes about the recent polls for the LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-mcmanus-polls-20121010,0,2392780.column Four national polls released their first post-debate findings this week. The Pew Research Center reported that Romney had moved into the lead among likely voters, 49% to 45%. The Gallup Poll reported that Romney held a narrow lead, 49% to 47%. The Rasmussen Poll, which sometimes appears to favor Republicans, was kinder to Obama this time; it reported a tie at 48% each. And Reuters/IPSOS reported a tie at 45%. ... But when four major polls move in the same direction, it's no mirage. The Romney campaign found new momentum in last week's debate, and Obama hasn't yet stopped it. Moreover, the Pew poll included fascinating data that suggest some of the reasons for Romney's advance.
Be afraid. These polls showing Romney in the lead by 5 are understating his lead by as many as 10 points.
Bingo. The same skewing in terms of oversampling is occurring, but even with that skewing, Romney is even or leading. I think Rasmussen not moving is very interesting. I wonder what he's seeing in his numbers others are not.
"Likely" voters is what desperate candidates and desperate pollsters grab onto when all hope is lost. "Registered" voters actually cast votes and determine who is President. Where's the polls for voters who have already voted?
It definitely is turning to a tighter race. As to the people speculating that the polls vastly under-report stuff, I can't help but remember threads like this ("Will end in a landslide [in favor of McCain]") and this ("Is the Presidential race tightening?") from 4 years ago where people who didn't like Obama were constantly taking any glimmer of hope in the polls as proof that Obama was in trouble. All the hand-wringing back then over Zogby and Rasmussen and cell phones and speculation about what the "real" numbers are vs what pollsters predicted seems kind of bullshit in hindsight to me. The polls were what they were and are what they are, and people predicting wild real-world swings that diverge from what the overall theme of what polls say (myself included in 2008--I though racism would be a bigger deal along with cell phones) were just wrong. Romney is on the rise and may win the popular vote. (Or it could be a blip. All the other Republican primary candidates had their 15 minutes of fame before their crazy ideas really sank in. Maybe this is Romney's 15 minutes. Obama has watched a lot of past competition rise and fall while staying on an even keel. The guy makes political mistakes--and the first debate was a doozy--but he doesn't make them often nor repeatedly. His core strength is being "no-drama Obama.") The electoral vote will be a pretty interesting matter. Romney has to overcome a lot of math to win so many toss up states.
