Next year's number one pick?

It looks like the wolves are definitely going to be in the running for the top pick next year, so who are we looking at getting? Outside of Mayo I really don't know of anyone. I also have no clue on what position we are going to want. We have solid youth at every position except for maybe center or point depending on Foye's development.

 

Given that the Timberwolves are set for the future in the backcourt with Foye, Green, and McCants, I think it'd be smart for them to go after either Michael Beasley or Darrell Arthur.

Beasley is a bit of an enigma to me. I've seen him play several times, and every time I see him, he struggles shooting the ball and has a Shaq-like form on his free-throws, yet every scouting report I've read on him suggests that he has range out to fifteen feet. I think the real issue here is that those scouting reports are all b.s. and are just based off of a few highlight clips the writers saw on YouTube. From the few times I've seen Beasley live, he seemed like a one-position player; too small to log minutes at the five yet not a consistent enough midrange shooter to play on the perimeter. Still, as a power forward, Beasley's got ridiculous potential. He's built in the same mold as Stromile Swift, Tyrus Thomas, etc., in that he's a great shotblocker with great defensive instincts and a great transition player with athleticism that most players his size can only dream of. Like both Swift and Thomas though, there's been red flags raised about his attitude, so that makes me wary to condone him as a prospect. After all these years I've followed the draft, no prospect has a higher failure rate than the cliche "loads of talent, poor attitude" players. I wonder how reliable the reports about his attitude are though, because I've never seen any evidence of it myself.

I included Arthur because of his early season performance against the Gators and a few scattered performances in between, but he really needs to step up to the plate this season and show more consistency. In all fairness to Arthur though, he didn't get much playing time down the stretch, but now that Julian Wright has been drafted, Arthur will likely get the majority of the Jayhawks' power forward minutes. T'Wolves fans should keep a close eye on him this season, because the few games that he showed up in last season were very impressive, especially considering that he was only a freshman.

As far as the guards go, I'd personally rank them in the following order: O.J. Mayo, Nicolas Batum, Derrick Rose, and Chase Budinger. It's a bit of a moot point to talk about them though when the Wolves still need help in the frontcourt.

One thing's for certain, this isn't as strong of a draft in the top two as it was this year. No one in this class will amount to be a player the caliber of a Greg Oden or a Kevin Durant, but that doesn't mean that there aren't a few All-Stars in this group. In fact, I think that from #3-14, the 2008 draft is actually better than this year's.

 

Ok, sweet thanks. Another question though, Is mayo that much better than everyone or not? It seems like his stock is dropping a lot. Is like a Lebron like talent in the draft or let's say like Conley?

 

<div class="quote_poster">TheFreshPrince Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Ok, sweet thanks. Another question though, Is mayo that much better than everyone or not? It seems like his stock is dropping a lot. Is like a Lebron like talent in the draft or let's say like Conley?</div>

There's no one like LeBron in next year's draft, no matter how you slice it. If you're talking about a player who'll step right in and single-handedly elevate his team from the cellar to the playoffs, then no, there's not one of those kind of talents this year. If you're talking about a player with a similar skillset to James, as a wing, then no, there's not one of them either. However, you could make the case for both Nicolas Batum and Chase Budinger being somewhat similar stylistically, especially Budinger.

As for Conley, Jr., I think that Darren Collison is a carbon copy of him. They're both incredibly quick, great floor generals, and pass-first point guards. Collison would be a great addition to any team, and I'd personally rank him in my top ten, but I just don't think he's what the Wolves need with Foye still on the roster.

Mayo's stock hasn't really dropped much. He's no longer the consensus #1 pick, because the competition has caught up to him a bit, but I'd say he's still at least a consensus top three pick and my personal #1. The key is to not go off of sites like nbadraft.net, which is, in particular, a piece of garbage. Those are usually reactionary sites, and by that I mean, they don't actually watch these players so much as they react to the hype surrounding them. They scouting reports are amateurish compared to those of draftexpress, in my opinion at least.

An example of this is the McDonald's All-American game. It's the world's most watched high school basketball game every season, and Mayo really choked in it, whereas Beasley thrived. Afterwards, nbadraft.net took Mayo out of the #1 spot and inserted Beasley there. That game was really not indicitive of anything though, because a few days later, down here in Memphis, Mayo lit up Nicolas Batum for 20 points on his way to winning the MVP trophy in the Nike Hoops Summit. Beasley, in that same game, shot 3-15 (2-6 FT) for 8 points. That just goes to show you that you have to see these guys on a consistent basis, and you especially shouldn't judge them off of all-star games. That's why I wouldn't put too much stock into nbadraft.net dropping Mayo on their draft board.

I think that Mayo will be a Joe Johnson-esque player on the next level. I personally see him as a shooting guard, but Tim Floyd has already said that he'll be playing Mayo mostly at the point next year at Southern Cal, so that could be the way he develops. As such, he's a scoring point guard, but he's not one of those shoot-first point guards who'll pass up an opportunity to set up his teammates. He can light up the score board on his own, but he's not going to hurt his team in doing so, like a player like Gilbert Arenas or Steve Francis (prime) would.

Here's how I rank them -

#1 - O.J. Mayo - PG/SG
#2 - Michael Beasley - PF
#3a - Nicolas Batum - SG/SF
#3b - Derrick Rose - PG
#5 - Darrell Arthur - PF
#6 - Darren Collison - PG
#7 - Chase Budinger - SG/SF
#8 - Brook Lopez - PF/C
#9 - Eric Gordon - PG
#10 - DeAndre Jordan - PF/C

Others - Kevin Love (PF), Tyler Smith (SF), Danillo Gallinari (SF)

As you can see, it's not that great of a year for big men, but you can still get a potential All-Star in Beasley, Arthur, or Jordan. The thing is, they've all got very high risks associated with them as well and aren't the sure-fire All-Stars that guys like Oden, Durant, James, etc. have been in the past.

 

I know you're not high on Hibbert VC, but he's one of the better prospects out there and he fits the wolves' only need - a center.

 

<div class="quote_poster">XSV Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I know you're not high on Hibbert VC, but he's one of the better prospects out there and he fits the wolves' only need - a center.</div>

Yeah, I like him, just not as a top five pick, which is what the Wolves will probably have.

Would you take him over Beasley, Arthur, Lopez, etc.?

I'd think about it, given the Wolves' needs, but at the end of the day, I'd take the better talent before I'd address a positional need if I were them.

I guess the real question is: can Al Jefferson play center on consistent basis? I know he played a lot of center for the Celtics last season, but he was more efficient as a four. I guess they should breed him as a center this year, give him a lot of time there, and let him adjust to the position, because it's always easier to find a talented four than it is a talented five.

 

True enough and if they get a high enough position then it's be stupid to pass up on Beasley, because at the end of the day, you can never have to many talented bigs. I'd take putting Jefferson or Brand at the 5 than "legit canters" like Blount, Rasho or Collins lol. A Jefferson Beasly combo would just be beastly if Beasley pans out like he should. On the other hand, Lopez is a legit 5 whos great D would complement Al well.

 

I thought Ty Lawson was a really really good player? I didn't follow much of unc last year so... It looks like we would be a lot better off trading the pick somehow unless Foye doesn't work as a point or our shooting guards don't pan out either.

 

<div class="quote_poster">TheFreshPrince Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I thought Ty Lawson was a really really good player? I didn't follow much of unc last year so... It looks like we would be a lot better off trading the pick somehow unless Foye doesn't work as a point or our shooting guards don't pan out either.</div>

Lawson isn't as polished as point guards like Darren Collison at the moment. He shows flashes of being one of the best point guard in the game, but he really lacks consistency in his leadership. Just look at North Carolina's tournament collapse against Georgetown. There was a lot of blame to be passed around in that one, but the finger pointing for that performance definitely has to start with Lawson's lack of poise running the show.

Still, I probably would have had him in my late top ten if I didn't think he was going to stay at UNC for another year like Hansbrough. He's undersized, inexperienced, and raw, but he's probably the fastest player in the game at the moment and one of the game's top ball handlers as well. I can see him being a Jameer Nelson type of player.

 

i dont really know the makeup of the t'wolves, so i'll just put it by position. if you need i guard, go with oj mayo. if you need a pf, go with michael beasley. center, roy hibbert. idk for sf? also, you never know whos going to get #1 pick with the lottery.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Run BJM Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I would definitely take Beasley and Arthur over Hibbert, but I wouldn't take Lopez over Hibbert. From what I've seen of Lopez I just don't think he projects to be a good pro. Hes big in college, pretty decent athletically for his size but below average in the NBA and hes a guy who's ok/good at everything but does nothing really well, which is what you have to do IMO to be a factor in the NBA. He could be a good reserve I think but I don't see him doing much more.

I was down on Hibbert for the first half of last year but he won me over toward the end of the season and especially in his game against Oden. He'll be a solid starting C in the NBA and thats plenty to ask for from a mid-late lotto pick.

A guys who's being majorly slept on right now IMO is Taj Gibson from USC. I didn't know jack about him before last season but he really impressed me the several times I saw him last year. He was killing it in the NCAA tournament against some very good competition, hes very athletic, has some decent offense, good shotblocker and rebounder. I can see him being a more athletic David West type player in the pros who thrives in the mid-range and on pick and rolls. As usual with older guys his stock is taking a big hit, hes already 22 and will be 23 come this time next year, but I'd take him in the mid-lotto right up there with guys like Hibbert.</div>

Gibson's 6'9" on a good day, skinny, and a 22-year old sophomore. Those are three things that could kill his stock on their own, so when you combine them, that's a lethal combination. I look at him as a Chuck Hayes type player, someone who has a solid grasp of the fundamentals of rebounding and doesn't just bulk his way to boards like a lot of players. He's probably worth a mid-to-late first round pick, and that's higher than most people are projecting him now, but would you really take him in the lottery? He really upside, doesn't contribute much offensively, and may even be too small to do the one thing he does well on the collegiate level, rebound.

As for Brook Lopez, he's mostly all potential at this point. He's three years younger than Taj Gibson, yet he's three inches taller and 35 lbs. heaver. Lopez needs to add weight, but he's got the type of frame that can carry a lot, and he's young enough to where bulking him up by the time he gets into the league is still a realistic goal.

I'd still look at Gibson with the Wolves' high second rounder though.

 

Derrick Rose > OJ mayo any day.

Minnesota would want a player like Rose instead of Mayo. Mayo is shoot first and is the biggest ball hog in history. Go download any of his high school games with bill walker. Derrick Rose will be the #1 pick or Micheal Beasley.

 

<div class="quote_poster">TmacGarnett Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Derrick Rose > OJ mayo any day.

Minnesota would want a player like Rose instead of Mayo. Mayo is shoot first and is the biggest ball hog in history. Go download any of his high school games with bill walker. Derrick Rose will be the #1 pick or Micheal Beasley.</div>

Derrick Rose is just as much of a ball-hog, probably even moreso. Mayo takes a lot of shots, and he calls his own number a lot, but does he not make the shots he takes? He makes good decisions, even if it means he has to take the majority of the looks. He also has shooting guard potential at 6'5". Like I said earlier, Floyd will be playing him at the point, but he could be developed as a two-guard on the next level, unlike Rose.

My main concern with Rose is that he probably won't develop next year like Mayo will, because he'll be playing for Memphis. As a player who has consistently played in up-tempo offenses and has struggled to create in the half-court, Rose isn't going to grow in the spread offense that Memphis runs. It's an up-tempo, isolation style that he's accustomed to playing but that very few NBA teams play.

Either way, they'd both be bad picks for Minnesota from the standpoint that they need help in the froncourt much more than in the backcourt, but if they were to go with a backcourt player, it should be Mayo.

 

Whenever I've seen Lopez play he reminded me A TON of KG. Idk, he just has that size and athleticism. I don't think he will be as good, but for some reason I think he could develop a similar skill set as KG. If Roy Hibbert continues to improve I'd be all for him. Too bad he has zero athleticism. I think he may be too dang slow unless he bulks up BIG time.

 

<div class="quote_poster">TheFreshPrince Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Whenever I've seen Lopez play he reminded me A TON of KG. Idk, he just has that size and athleticism. I don't think he will be as good, but for some reason I think he could develop a similar skill set as KG. If Roy Hibbert continues to improve I'd be all for him. Too bad he has zero athleticism. I think he may be too dang slow unless he bulks up BIG time.</div>

Not only is Hibbert slow, but he's pigeon-toed.

Like shape said though, it really depends on where this team goes stylistically. So far they're shaping up to be a half-court team from what I can see, with Al Jefferson anchoring their offense, so maybe Hibbert wouldn't be that bad of an option. That is, of course, if the Wolves wound up with a pick in the #6-10 range.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Run BJM Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Gibson just turned 22 in June and I don't think hes as small as you're making him out to be. Probably shorter than his listed 6'9 but I'd say at this point hes heavier than his listed weight of 210. Hes been with USC for two years although he didn't play his first year, he surely bulked up a bit becuase last year he was looking fairly muscular and not as frail as the pics of him I've seen as a freshman. Granted hes not a guy who will overpower in the NBA, hes probably up around 220 which is adequate for a young guy coming into the NBA. His NBA success may be determined by where he plays though as he seems best suited in a faster paced style with a good PG who can run the pick and roll well.</div>

Er... typo... 22 is still incredibly old for a college sophomore. Even if he leaves after next season, he'll be 23 entering his rookie season.

Colleges reweigh and remeasure their players every year, so if Gibson bulked up it would have been recorded. He's visibly thin.

Either way, he's a late first round, early second round prospect, not lottery material.

I'm siding with Chad Ford on this one -

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Draft Projection: Second round to undrafted

Summary: Gibson, on talent, is a first-round pick but his age works against him right now. He's going to have to help USC dominate this season to get a team to commit to him high.</div>

I'd agree with that assesment, 100%. He had an impressive freshman season, but he was older than most seniors. Not to mention that he's thin and a bit short for someone who'll be playing in the post on the next level.

Like I said, I can see him carving out a Chuck Hayes-esque niche for himself for some team, but why take him all the way in the lottery when he'll be available in the early second?