First, a warning: the Nuggets are unpredictable, so you can not really predict what will happen to the Nuggets in a playoff series, as I have explained in my game reports. But since I like to predict things, and since I am usually very good at predicting things, I am going to attempt it anyway, and hope I get lucky. In lil nba's Suns/Spurs topic, I gave a numerical comparison for the Spurs and the Nuggets, and I would like to update that a little. I also then gave a rough estimate of the odds that the Nuggets would defeat the Spurs in the series, which I first put at 1 in 25. I immediately realized that to be too steep, so I changed it to 1 in 20, and I said that if Kleiza is hitting his shots and if J.R. Smith plays more rather than less, the odds would be more like 1 in 12 or 1 in 10. But I was still to low on my Nuggets odds, and I was too negative regarding Kleiza hitting his shots. So I am forgetting those odds and am starting fresh. Now, with the entire starting lineup playing practically at the top of their games, it's time to change some of the numerical ratings and the odds, so here we go. The players are rated on a 0 to 5 scale, where 0 is barely good enough to play in the NBA, 1 is well below the NBA average, 2 is a little below the NBA average, 3 is a little above average for the NBA, 4 is well above the NBA average, and 5 is all-star level. Center Nuggets Camby 4.5 Spurs Elson 0.5 Power Forward Nuggets Nene 3.5 Spurs Duncan 5.0 Small Forward Nuggets Melo 5.0 Spurs Bowen 2.5 Shooting Guard Nuggets A.I. 5.0 Spurs Ginobili 4.0 Point Guard Nuggets Blake 2.5 Spurs Parker 4.5 Bench-Counts Double, so scale is 0 to 10 Nuggets Smith, Kleiza, Najera 3.5 Spurs Finley Barry Horry 8 Coach Nuggets Karl 1.5 Spurs Popovich 5.0 Home Court Advantage: Add 2.0 to Spurs Total Nuggets 25.5 Spurs 31.5 I have reduced the Nuggets bench score by 1, because it's looking more and more as if J.R. Smith will not play very much, and because a little more doubt about Kleiza making his shots has come up. On the other hand, Blake's rating has gone up by 1.5 due to his outstanding play over the last few weeks. And both Camby and Nene have been increased by .5, because they are playing lights out. Karl's rating has been increased by .5 because any coach who wins 8 straight late in the season has to be at least a 1.5. Right? I hope so, anyway. The bench score is still too high, though, if Kleiza can not get close to 40% of his three-pointers and / or if J.R. Smith does not play at least 12 minutes a game, which is what I am now assuming. I am assuming that J.R. gets 14 minutes per game; if he only gets half that many minutes a game, you can subtract another point from the bench rating. <u>PROBABILITIES</u> My best guess for the probability that the Nuggets will defeat the Spurs in the series based on the ratings result, which was 31.5 to 25.5 in favor of the Spurs, is about 14%, or in other words there is about a 1 in 7 chance that the Nuggets can defeat the Spurs. When I gave the odds in the other topic, they were too steep against the Nuggets even after I adjusted them. These odds are much more realistic. Here are some of the assumptions for these odds: Camby continues to have alot of blocks, at least 3.5 per game. Nene continues to score at a high percentage from close to the hoop. Blake continues to get very close to or more than 10 points every game, and hits at least 40% of his shots. A.I. plays smart, all-star, playoff quality ball. If his shooting percentage is down, the Nuggets need his assists to be up. Melo continues to efficiently produce 27-32 points per game, like clockwork. Kleiza hits three or more threes at least every other game, and avoids any 1/7 or 1/8 type games. J.R. Smith plays about 14 minutes per game and makes threes and steals according to his skills. Now if any of these players do even better than these levels, then the odds that the Nuggets will win the series go up. A substantial increase in the performance of any one of these players from what is predicted as most likely would increase the Nuggets percentage chance of winning by as much as 30%, roughly 8% to 15% for each game a player plays outstanding. In a 7 game series, there is usually at least one lucky win, and if the Nuggets get a lucky win, the odds go up about 20% from that. Current odds of the Nuggets winning the series: about 14% Nuggets get a lucky win: odds go up 20% Camby plays one game well above his predicted level, and gets 8 or more blocks or 20 or more rebounds, or 6 blocks and 15 rebounds, or any similar combination: odds go up by about 12%. Melo plays one game well above his predicted level: odds go up about 10% Iverson plays two games well above his predicted level: odds go up by about 24%. Kleiza does even better than predicted in the series: odds go up about 12% J.R. Smith plays 22 minutes a game instead of just 15 minutes a game: odds go up about 16% So if every one of these great things were to happen, the odds that the Nuggets would win the series would be 100%! And if just half of those great things happen, the odds that the Nuggets will win are about 71%. Of course, if the Spurs do better than predicted, the Nuggets odds would go down again, but the Spurs are less likely to do better than predicted, because they are almost all veterans who almost always play as well as they can, whereas the Nuggets are a much younger and more unpredictable team. In conclusion, can the Nuggets beat the Spurs? Hell yeah they can.
This will be a great series. IMO, the Spurs have way too much playoff experience to lose. They are my pick to win it all so I think they will win this series in 6 games.
Denver wins 4-3 winning game 7 on the Spurs home floor... All i can say is Go Nuggets!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.....
The key to the nuggets winning this series lies totally in their perimeter defense and coaching. If they can limit parker and ginoblis games, then there chances of winning are huge. Also they need to remember that this is a HORRIBLE free throw shooting team and they can take advantage of that because the nuggets bench doesnt get much playing time anyway. Putting Bowen, or Duncan on the line could equal a turnover for the Spurs. Duncan is going to get his 20 and 10 no matter what, so the nuggets need to contain parker and ginobli as best they can to win this. A zone could work very well against the spurs if all their starters are in. However, the spurs reserves can all knock down the 3's with amazing consistency, so they need to be able to change defenses on the fly. The spurs have the advantage of consistant high level play, but the nuggets could have an even bigger advantage, somewhat erratic play, but the potential to play like the best team in the NBA. The team just needs to click for 4 games to win the series.Also, People need to remember that Allen Iverson IS playoff basketball. He is absolutely unstoppable in every way, hits all the big shots, and can easily carry a team past the first round. That was in philly too, now hes on a team where everyone can score, and that should scare the Spurs quite a bit. Now more than ever Iverson needs to LEAD this team like he is used to. im usually wrong with my predictions, but im going to go out on a limb and say the nuggets win this series 4-2. They want this one bad, and they have the more talented team, they need Iverson, Karl, Melo, and the rest of the team to know their roles and just let AI and Melo do their thing and make playoff history.
BTW, if the nuggets had this team for the entire season, people wouldn't be considering them underdogs. They would be contenders. But thats ok i love it when the underdogs steal the show.
I'll admit that you guys are turning your game on at just the right time. But the Spurs are playing average San Antonio basketball and they also have a winning streak of their own: 6 games. I look forward to this series in many ways, for one the defensive intensity will be way up. I'm looking forward to seeing games in the 70's. I want to see how Iverson and Melo can handle themselves in their first playoff series together. Spurs are going to win and everybody knows that but the question is how many games, I think it will go to 6 games.
