First, a warning: the Nuggets are unpredictable, so you can not really predict what will happen to the Nuggets in a playoff series, as I have explained in my game reports. But since I like to predict things, and since I am usually very good at predicting things, I am going to attempt it anyway, and hope I get lucky. In lil nba's Suns/Spurs topic, I gave a numerical comparison for the Spurs and the Nuggets, and I would like to update that a little. I also then gave a rough estimate of the odds that the Nuggets would defeat the Spurs in the series, which I first put at 1 in 25. I immediately realized that to be too steep, so I changed it to 1 in 20, and I said that if Kleiza is hitting his shots and if J.R. Smith plays more rather than less, the odds would be more like 1 in 12 or 1 in 10. But I was still to low on my Nuggets odds, and I was too negative regarding Kleiza hitting his shots. So I am forgetting those odds and am starting fresh. Now, with the entire starting lineup playing practically at the top of their games, it's time to change some of the numerical ratings and the odds, so here we go. The players are rated on a 0 to 5 scale, where 0 is barely good enough to play in the NBA, 1 is well below the NBA average, 2 is a little below the NBA average, 3 is a little above average for the NBA, 4 is well above the NBA average, and 5 is all-star level. Center Nuggets Camby 4.5 Spurs Elson 0.5 Power Forward Nuggets Nene 3.5 Spurs Duncan 5.0 Small Forward Nuggets Melo 5.0 Spurs Bowen 2.5 Shooting Guard Nuggets A.I. 5.0 Spurs Ginobili 4.0 Point Guard Nuggets Blake 2.5 Spurs Parker 4.5 Bench-Counts Double, so scale is 0 to 10 Nuggets Smith, Kleiza, Najera 3.5 Spurs Finley Barry Horry 8 Coach Nuggets Karl 1.5 Spurs Popovich 5.0 Home Court Advantage: Add 2.0 to Spurs Total Nuggets 25.5 Spurs 31.5 I have reduced the Nuggets bench score by 1, because it's looking more and more as if J.R. Smith will not play very much, and because a little more doubt about Kleiza making his shots has come up. On the other hand, Blake's rating has gone up by 1.5 due to his outstanding play over the last few weeks. And both Camby and Nene have been increased by .5, because they are playing lights out. Karl's rating has been increased by .5 because any coach who wins 8 straight late in the season has to be at least a 1.5. Right? I hope so, anyway. The bench score is still too high, though, if Kleiza can not get close to 40% of his three-pointers and / or if J.R. Smith does not play at least 12 minutes a game, which is what I am now assuming. I am assuming that J.R. gets 14 minutes per game; if he only gets half that many minutes a game, you can subtract another point from the bench rating. <u>PROBABILITIES</u> My best guess for the probability that the Nuggets will defeat the Spurs in the series based on the ratings result, which was 31.5 to 25.5 in favor of the Spurs, is about 14%, or in other words there is about a 1 in 7 chance that the Nuggets can defeat the Spurs. When I gave the odds in the other topic, they were too steep against the Nuggets even after I adjusted them. These odds are much more realistic. Here are some of the assumptions for these odds: Camby continues to have alot of blocks, at least 3.5 per game. Nene continues to score at a high percentage from close to the hoop. Blake continues to get very close to or more than 10 points every game, and hits at least 40% of his shots. A.I. plays smart, all-star, playoff quality ball. If his shooting percentage is down, the Nuggets need his assists to be up. Melo continues to efficiently produce 27-32 points per game, like clockwork. Kleiza hits three or more threes at least every other game, and avoids any 1/7 or 1/8 type games. J.R. Smith plays about 14 minutes per game and makes threes and steals according to his skills. Now if any of these players do even better than these levels, then the odds that the Nuggets will win the series go up. A substantial increase in the performance of any one of these players from what is predicted as most likely would increase the Nuggets percentage chance of winning by as much as 30%, roughly 8% to 15% for each game a player plays outstanding. In a 7 game series, there is usually at least one lucky win, and if the Nuggets get a lucky win, the odds go up about 20% from that. Current odds of the Nuggets winning the series: about 14% Nuggets get a lucky win: odds go up 20% Camby plays one game well above his predicted level, and gets 8 or more blocks or 20 or more rebounds, or 6 blocks and 15 rebounds, or any similar combination: odds go up by about 12%. Melo plays one game well above his predicted level: odds go up about 10% Iverson plays two games well above his predicted level: odds go up by about 24%. Kleiza does even better than predicted in the series: odds go up about 12% J.R. Smith plays 22 minutes a game instead of just 15 minutes a game: odds go up about 16% So if every one of these great things were to happen, the odds that the Nuggets would win the series would be 100%! And if just half of those great things happen, the odds that the Nuggets will win are about 71%. Of course, if the Spurs do better than predicted, the Nuggets odds would go down again, but the Spurs are less likely to do better than predicted, because they are almost all veterans who almost always play as well as they can, whereas the Nuggets are a much younger and more unpredictable team. In conclusion, can the Nuggets beat the Spurs? Hell yeah they can.
