Let's say that the GMs around the league know what everyone knows now about Oden, his injury history, his NBA stats, etc. Let's say that for some reason that is unallowable by the CBA he actually was placed into the 2011 draft as a 2xMF, 82-games-in-4-years, 23 y/o C. Where do you think he gets picked? I'm an Oden homer, but I still think the doom and gloom is a bit thick with him. I get it--don't get me wrong--but I think that given the initial conditions above I would be way more stoked to roll the dice with 2xMF 23y/o Greg Oden than Bismack Biyambo or one of the Morris twins. We're about to get a Force of Nature back on our team after a 2yr absence. And in those 2 years he put up numbers that only 4 Hall of Famers have achieved. And he did it as a clumsy rookie and soph coming off of MF surgery. He might snap in half taking the opening tip of the first game he plays, but while he's on the court he's Beast Mode, NBA-style.
You know I saw that someone posted in another thread that even the most injury riddled players that have been in the league have usually seemed to give at least a few season relatively healthy seasons. Considering that, Oden's young age and that he is only going to get better skills wise I would imagine that most teams would be willing to take a chance on that. You are taking a chance an unproven rookie anyway. Oden's potential rebounding and defensive impact are game changers. I would say that unless the top team already had a proven center or was in desperate need of pg for example I think Oden would probably go 2 or 3. You have to consider as well that if Oden was in the draft he is going to get paid on the rookie scale which helps a lot.
The only force of nature that Oden reminds me of is a big powerful storm that dies somewhere over the ocean and is never heard from again.
So everybody gets the foreknowledge that he misses 75% of his games in his first 4 years and sees that he puts around 10-7-1.5? Well then I'd guess he'd still go in the lottery based on the chance that he could end up being a difference maker at some point, but not in the top 7 (and maybe not even the top 10).
That's an interesting question. Personally, I think he could slip to the 2nd round. How is he different than, say, Chris Taft who was once considered a surefire #1 pick, then back problems and concerns about work ethic knocked his to round 2. Sure, Oden may have a great work ethic (I don't know) but I think plenty of teams would look at his demeanor and the fact that he did not seem too eager to return from his injuries and be very afraid of taking him. I think Jerome James is another example of a guy who had dominant size and skill, or at least potential, but other concerns knocked him to round 2.
he would have went #1 this year for sure. kyrie irving? williams? oden has already proven that when he is on the court he is a TOP 10 PLAYER, PER WISE, IN THE ENTIRE FUCKING NBA http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holl...spn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?year=2010 fucking haters are making me get a clue
The whole theoretical exercise here is where he would go in the draft if people could look at his career so far ... so yes, in this case that fifteen game sample matters for back-casting his draft position. Without that fifteen game sample to consider, he'd be a second rounder.
the other players in this draft had no sample whatsoever, id take a small dominant sample over a guess on biyombo... i guess you wouldnt?
It obviously depends on the rest of the class. He wouldn't go #1 if DRose were in the draft. I bet he'd go top 10 if not top 5. Draft picks are rarely a sure thing, and his potential is still quite good.
I don't see what's so funny? (Besides that you think I'm a huge fucking fool and want everybody to know that you think this). The only question being discussed here is what would be his projected draft position in 2007 if you knew what the next four years would be like. Look at some of the names that came out that year: Al Horford, Kevin Durant, Joachim Noah, Carl Landry, Mike Conley, Jeff Green, Jared Dudley, Wilson Chandler, Aaron Brooks, Tiago Splitter, Glen Davis, Marc Gasol and Ramon Sessions. I'm not saying he's definitely worse or better than any of those guys, but that's an awful lot of production out of one draft class; in my opinion one of the most important abilities for a player to have is availability.
OK, my bad, I missed the 2011 bit. In that case in what many call a terrible draft, then Oden might be top 7 guy, probably a top 5.
this might be an interesting way to think about it...where would greg have gone if the drafting team new his first 4 seasons would basically be a wash? i mean in that case, hes basically like a eurostash...hrmm in that case i would say yes, late 1st, early 2nd i know we have all been burned by the hope of him so many times, but if he is healthy, im going to assume he is going to stay that way, ala amare/zbo/other MF guys
