A warm up: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/02/ame...aign.php?page=1 Clock ticks down for candidates in Iowa By Brian Knowlton Wednesday, January 2, 2008 WASHINGTON: Presidential candidates made their closing arguments Wednesday on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, debating the reliability of polls showing close and volatile races in both parties, and pondering the impact of perhaps the greatest participation ever by independents in Iowa. The caucuses Thursday evening, an unusual political ritual that takes place in schools, homes and libraries across the Midwestern state, constitute the first step in a five-month series of state contests to pick each party's nominee - though the outcome could be clear far sooner. The Iowa contests remained fluid on both sides, with a variety of outcomes possible. So did the race in New Hampshire, where people vote only five days later: A CNN survey there found that majorities in both parties had yet to decide definitely on a candidate. "Most people are deciding in this last 24-hour period," Teresa Vilmain, the Iowa director for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, said Wednesday. Aides for all of the candidates in Iowa were still frantically organizing thousands of last-minute door-to-door visits and transportation to the caucuses for supporters. In New Hampshire, a blizzard kept many people home and campaign staff worked the phones. The process could lead to the election in November of the first woman as U.S. president, Clinton; the first black, Senator Barack Obama; or the first Mormon, Mitt Romney. It will, in any case, begin the succession to a singularly polarizing presidency. Democrats say they want to reverse what they consider a tragic global decline in the American image. Republican candidates, wary of association with a president inextricably linked in the public mind to failures in Iraq, largely ignore him. They focus instead on domestic issues, from a worrying economy to an immigration system that many see as out of control. Recent surveys underscore how fluid the races are in both early states. In Iowa, Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady, is in a close contest with Obama, the Illinois senator and former community organizer, and John Edwards, a former U.S. senator from North Carolina. A recent Des Moines Register poll put Obama in the lead by 7 points over Clinton, with Edwards only one point behind her. Clinton aides acknowledged privately that this had created some consternation in their camp. They contested the Register's sampling methods, which included an unusually large 40 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers who described themselves as independents. On the Republican side, a onetime long shot, Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, appears to hold a lead over Romney, a former Massachusetts governor who has a large and well-financed organization in the state. But the surveys underline an unusual dynamic that fans uncertainties: Leading candidates have mobilized large numbers of independents and younger Iowans who say this would be their first caucus; whether they in fact devote the several hours required by caucus participation, with their intensive consultations, will be known only late Thursday. In the past, participants have tended to be older, politically engaged white people. There is fluidity in New Hampshire, as well. Senator John McCain of Arizona, whose campaign has snapped back at a crucial time from weeks of disarray in late summer, appears to have erased a Romney lead. Each man received 29 percent support in the latest CNN/WMUR poll. Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York mayor, had 12 percent. That signified a dramatic shift from a month earlier, when Romney led McCain by 33 percent to 18 percent. On the Democratic side, Clinton led Obama in New Hampshire by 4 points, with Edwards a distant third. "Today has been a good day for us," Christian Ferry, McCain's deputy campaign manager, told Reuters in Manchester, New Hampshire. "Good poll data get people fired up." McCain was returning to Iowa from New Hampshire for a final burst of campaigning, hoping for a surprise third-place finish to give him additional momentum. Huckabee and Romney had events around the state as well. But Huckabee, in an unusual move, was dropping off the Iowa trail late Wednesday to fly to California to tape the "Tonight Show With Jay Leno." He denied Wednesday that this reflected overconfidence. "Absolutely not," Huckabee said on ABC. "I've been up since 4 this morning. I'll be campaigning to early afternoon. I fly to California. I'm back here tonight. I'll be up again at 4 in the morning. We'll still be campaigning." On the Democratic side, Obama seemed Wednesday to have a fresh bounce in his step. He spoke to reporters about "great crowds with unbelievable energy." He told an audience of more than 1,000 in Des Moines: "I think 2008 is going to be a good year. That's what I think. I think some big things might happen in 2008." A two-minute video being broadcast by Clinton echoed the themes of many of her similarly hard-working, exhausted rivals. "After all the town meetings, the pie and coffee, it comes down to this: Who is ready to be president and ready to start solving the big challenges we face on Day One?" she asks. Although the delegates Iowa and New Hampshire send to the national nominating conventions in late summer will cast only a small proportion of the overall vote, the two states' contests can cast candidates indelibly into the roles of winners or losers. It will also soon be clear whether candidates who banked heavily on Iowa - including Edwards, who has spent more than 100 days in the state since 2005 - were wiser, or more shortsighted, than those like Giuliani, who largely bypassed it to campaign in the many states that vote on Feb. 5. One new national poll of Republican voters suggests that Giuliani may be suffering, at least in the near term. His once-solid nationwide lead has vanished, according to the Pew Research Center. Its survey found approximately equal levels of support for McCain, at 22 percent, Giuliani at 20 percent, and Huckabee at 17 percent. The poll, conducted from Dec. 19 to 30, found that Giuliani's support had slipped 13 points since September - the same number of points Huckabee had gained. All those invested in Iowa are counting on a sort of "Iowa effect" that Edwards summed up thusly: "When I win the Iowa caucus on Thursday," he told an audience there Monday, "what's going to happen is the money is going to pour in. That's what always happens." But the Clinton campaign was not waiting: It announced Monday that the senator had raised more than $100 million in 2007. Still, some Clinton donors in New York who spoke on condition of anonymity said that they were unnerved by the Register poll showing a sizable Obama lead. They had expected Edwards to do well in Iowa, but had not foreseen an Obama blowout. Some Clinton advisers said that if Obama has actually managed to attract a whole new crop of independents to the caucus process, he would be tough to beat. Regardless, all but Iowans agree that the state has an impact far disproportionate to the numbers who take part. Fewer than 6 percent of eligible Iowa voters took part in the 2004 caucuses. The state itself accounts for one one-hundredth the U.S. population. Patrick Healy contributed reporting from Des Moines.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0264367920080103 Obama grabs Iowa lead from Edwards Thu Jan 3, 2008 7:20am EST By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama surged to a four-point lead over John Edwards in Iowa, with Hillary Clinton fading to third just hours before the first presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday. Obama and Edwards gained ground overnight in the tracking poll, and Clinton fell four points to third place -- a finish that, if it held, would deal a dramatic setback to the one-time Democratic front-runner. Obama was at 31 percent among likely Democratic caucus-goers, Edwards at 27 percent and Clinton 24 percent. No other Democrat was in double digits. In the Republican race, Mike Huckabee expanded his lead to six points, 31 to 25 percent, over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the one-time leader in Iowa who has attacked Huckabee for his record as Arkansas governor. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is in third place in the Republican race at 11 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain slipped two points to 10 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul also registered 10 percent. "There is a clear Clinton fade," pollster John Zogby said. "None of it has been dramatic, but it has been steady." He said Clinton, a New York senator, was losing ground to Obama, an Illinois senator, among Democrats -- as opposed to independents -- and self-described liberals. "Under any circumstance, a 31-27-24 spread is still very close," he said of the margins for the top three Democratic contenders. "Edwards is right in the mix and he has made gains too." About 6 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of Democrats remain undecided, leaving room for late swings. The rolling poll of 905 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 914 likely Republican caucus-goers was taken Sunday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points for each party. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was fourth with 7 percent and Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden was at 5 percent. Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd was at 1 percent and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich was under 1 percent. Iowa opens the process of choosing the next U.S. president on Thursday night, kicking off a state-by-state battle to choose Republican and Democratic candidates for the November election to replace President George W. Bush. Obama, Clinton and Edwards have battled for the lead in Iowa for months. Clinton, who would be the first woman president, holds a slight lead among women and is still strong among older voters. Obama leads among men and younger voters. Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, remained the top second choice of Democrats. A candidate must have 15 percent support in each precinct to be viable or their supporters can switch to another candidate. In the Republican race, Huckabee gained three points on Romney. The gains followed Monday's news conference where he said he would not air an ad attacking Romney because he wanted to keep the race positive -- and then showed it to reporters. The move was heavily criticized in the media -- but his numbers have climbed since, Zogby said. "Everyone outside of Iowa laughed at what appeared to be a Huckabee gambit, but Iowa Republicans seem to think it was genuine," he said. "Huckabee is not pulling away, but it's now a six-point lead and he has moved above 30 percent." Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has largely bypassed Iowa to focus on later voting states, is at 6 percent. California Rep. Duncan Hunter is at 1 percent. The rolling tracking poll concludes with these results. In a rolling poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped in order to track changing momentum. (Editing by Eric Walsh) (For more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales from the Trail: 2008" online at blogs.reuters.com/trail08/)
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/default.aspx A caucus primer: The caucuses will be called to order at 7:30 pm ET (6:30 pm local time) on the Democratic side, and they begin at 8:00 pm ET (7:00 pm local time) on the GOP side. Democratic candidates have to hit a 15% threshold of support in each precinct caucus to win delegate equivalents, and supporters of candidates who don’t attain viability can realign with other candidates. By comparison, there is not a second-choice aspect on the GOP side; the Republican results are simply a “straw vote” of everyone who attends. Anyone can caucus in either party: A participant simply has to prove residency and register to vote in that party that night. So independents can caucus on either side, and Republicans can re-register as Democrats that night and caucus, and vice versa. The turnout on the Dem side could be anywhere from 125,000 (what it was in 2004) to 150,000-160,000 (and perhaps even higher). Since two of the major GOP candidates -- Giuliani and McCain -- aren’t spending a ton of resources in the state, Republican turnout is likely to be lower than the Democrats; figures being tossed around are 60,000 to 80,000.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AEM @ Jan 3 2008, 08:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>They're saying that if Fred Thompson finishes lower than third, he'll drop out and support McCain.</div> That was a bogus report coming from outside the Thompson campaign. Thompson's Campaign Manager denied that on Rush today and then Thompson himself denied that on Sean Hannity's show.
Bloomberg can basically buy a great shot at the presidency. The plus is that he'd be beholden to no special interest groups or corporations. The negative is that the presidency probably shouldn't be something a rich guy can buy. He will need a coalition to govern, though. I can see that social conservatives might hold some of his agenda hostage in trade for socially conservative "earmarks" and same is true for democrats. Bloomberg claims to want to unite the two parties in a bipartisan manner. I personally am anti-partisan, so I'm dubious of this approach. You've got one party that breaks the laws to damage political opponents, which is as partisan as it gets. The other that breaks the laws for other reasons... Given that I don't really want government to accomplish much, a legislative logjam between the two partisan parties might be for the best 27:29 left on the MSNB elapsed time clock Waiting on the results!
Obama, Huckabee wins. Edwards and Clinton are in a tight race for second on the Democratic side. Romney finished second in the Republican race, followed by McCain, Thompson, and Ron Paul.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080104/D8TUPSUG0.html Obama, Huckabee Wins Iowa Caucuses DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - Sen. Barack Obama, bidding to become the nation's first black president, captured the Iowa caucuses Thursday night, opening test in the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Mike Huckabee rode a wave of support from evangelical Christians to victory in the Republican caucuses. Obama, 46 and a first-term senator from Illinois, eased past a high-powered field that included Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, the former first lady, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, the party's 2004 vice presidential nominee. Among Republicans, Huckabee, a preacher turned politician, handily defeated Mitt Romney despite being outspent by tens of millions of dollars, and deciding in the campaign's final days to scrap television commercials that would have assailed the former Massachusetts governor. Obama, who campaigned as an apostle of change in Washington, was gaining 36 percent support among Democrats., Edwards, who ran promising to battle the special interests in the capital, and Clinton, who stressed her experience, both were drawing about 30 percent. Huckabee's triumph was more robust. He was winning 34 percent support, compared to 25 percent for Romney. Former Sen. Fred Thompson and Sen. John McCain battled for third place. Romney sought to frame his defeat as something less than that, saying he had trailed Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, by more than 20 points a few weeks ago. "I've been pleased that I've been able to make up ground and I intend to keep making up ground, not just here but across the country," he said. The words were brave, but already, his strategy of bankrolling a methodical campaign in hopes of winning the first two states was in tatters - and a rejuvenated McCain was tied with him in the polls in next-up New Hampshire. Iowans rendered their judgments in meetings at 1,781 precincts from Adel to Zwingle, in schools, firehouses and community centers where the candidates themselves could not follow. In interviews as they entered the caucuses, more than half of all the Republicans said they were either born-again or evangelical Christians, and they liked Huckabee more than any of his rivals. Romney led handily among the balance of the Iowa Republican voters, according to the survey. About half the Democratic caucus-goers said a candidate's ability to bring about needed change was the most important factor as they made up their minds, according to the entrance interviews by The Associated Press and the television networks. Change was Obama's calling card in the arduous campaign for Iowa's backing. Fewer voters cited experience, which Clinton said was her strong suit, or a candidate's chance of capturing the White House or ability to care about people like the voters themselves.
RESULTS: Obama 37.36; Edwards 29.97; Clinton 29.45 Huckabee 34; Romney 25; Thompson 14; McCain 13%; Paul 10%
Remember you heard it here first. The press has been using all their power of propaganda to push Huckabee so the Democrat nominee would have to face the least threatening of the republican candidates. So far it's worked
