...61 Wins!!! ...1st in division!!! ...WCF minimum!!! ...at least two all-stars!!! ...greatest fans in the NBA!!!
This^^^^ and we lose to the Lakers in 6 or 7 in the WCF. Sorry, but barring injury we won't get past LA + refs + Stern. We need another year to be a big enough juggernaut to crush that triumvirate of terror. Edit: OMG I totally forgot to mention Oden = M.I.P
IMHO, 63 is the ceiling and 50 is the floor for this team. That's a 13-game (~16%) swing. 57 is the median of that, so I'll go with it. That's .695 winning percentage. Our win percentage after the All-Star Break was .733 (22-8), so I feel pretty comfortable saying we can make .695 over a season. So, my predictions (as of 10/25/09): 57-25 regular season 1st in the NW Division 3rd seed overall in the West (LA/SA/POR/DEN/DAL/PHX/UTA/LAC) 10-9 playoffs: Win 4-2 against PHX Win 4-3 against SA Lose 4-2 in WCF to LA
53 wins ... due to injuries / something totally unforeseen. Lose in 2nd round G.O. = moderate success
I'm going with 60 wins (best in the Western Conference), first in the NW Division and "upsetting" the Lakers in the WCF. Once we get to the finals, anything can happen. It all comes down to match-ups and injuries. I actually think both the Lakers and Spurs are better "on paper", but both are much older and more likely to suffer injuries to key players. Although we have some players with injury history, and we are trying to integrate Andre Miller, the Lakers are much older, also have players with injury histories, and are trying to integrate Ron Artest. I think they will have both more injuries and more chemistry issues than the Blazers and that will limit them to 58 regular season victories. That gives us HCA in the WCF, and we all know how the Lakers struggle at the Rose Garden. The Spurs are ancient. Duncan played much of last season on one leg and Ginobili is also injury prone. They really filled out their bench nicely through trades, free agent signings and the draft, but how far they go in the play-offs will still come down to the health of Duncan, Ginobil and Parker. BNM
BTW, I think we will only have 1 all-star - Brandon Roy. I think that's good as it will motivate Aldridge and Oden to prove the doubters wrong over the second half of the season and in the play-offs. Given the lack of dominant centers in the West, I think Oden actually has a better chance to make the all-star team than Aldridge. With Yao out, if Oden can put up 14/10 over the first half of the season, he will be deserving. However, I think there are too many voters who prematurely labeled Oden a bust and he'll have to absolutely dominate for them to admit to themselves they were wrong. BNM
