There's a great article on ESPN about where the Thunder are at with their rebuild. It started in 2019 with the Paul George trade. That trade netted them Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. They've added Holmgren and other rookies. SAG has blossomed into a legit superstar. Holmgren looks great now that he's healthy. Presti has a stockpile of 15 first round picks and many would say that this season is the time to be pushing those chips in to try to net another bonafide star or two, but Presti is preaching that the Thunder are taking the long view that they need to develop their talent more and build around that: "I'm not trying to dismiss everyone's excitement, but we're not a .500 team. We have to finish our breakfast before we start acting like we're on the cusp of something." https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...sti-pivot-why-darlings-nba-preaching-patience So what does all of this say as to what the Blazers' model should be? We're hoping that Shai and Scoot will develop into All-stars, but they've got a long way to go to achieve that. Ant could be on the cusp of a breakout, but now we have to wait until the first of the year or so in order to find out. Ayton's still an enigma. He's looking like a journeyman big man, but is there more hidden there? The Blazers' stock of draft picks pales in comparison to the Thunders' but there's reason to believe that they'll have a top-5 pick in this year's draft and they have the Warriors' pick that could be decent should Golden State's age catch up with them. There are more picks down the road a ways. So, fellow Rip City 2 fans, how much patience do you have with the rebuild process? Are we going to lose our shit every time the Blazers lay a massive crap-colored egg like last night? Are you up for maybe 3-5 years of losing, playing it slow ala the Thunder, allowing the young guys to develop before making trades for established guys? Or, should the Blazers try to jump the line by trading someone like Ant and picks for an established star? We saw that Olshey totally wasted Dame's youth by bringing in a string of middle-tier and journeyman bandaid players that never amounted to anything. I don't want to see the same thing happen with Shai and Scoot.
As long as there is growth I am ok with it. BUT. Is CB the guy to lead for those 4 years? Right now he is deferring to vets (with poor results) instead of giving the responsibility to younger guys. I have a sick feeling Scoot will be coming off the bench soon.
I would technically say they're three years in. They had Chris Paul and Schroeder lead them to the 5th seed in 19-20 and still had Donovan coaching. Which also brings me to the next point. Having Scoot and Shae already on contract jumpstarts our rebuild. The contract situation looks fairly decent as well. My hesitancy with Cronin have definitely been cleared after this summer. I think he's fine. The only two hangups I have to maintain my patience are: 1. Is Chauncey contributing to the development of our youngins? Leaning yes but some glaring flaws also materialize sometimes. 2. How stable and willing is this ownership to spend three years from now?
No, I am not willing to wait another year after this. I am curious to see how accumulating 15 picks works out for OKC. Who will they get in a trade for multiple picks?
What kind of results would you like to see next year? Scoot and Shae are probably at least another year away from being able to lead us to anything. We will have another lottery pick this summer to develop. I suspect Brogdon and maybe Grant will be gone. I think the rebuild has at least another 1-2 years after this season.
If they had gotten the #1 pick last year things would look drastically different. If the NCAA season this year provides a bonafide #1 pick then maybe they can get another great piece to this puzzle. Anyway you look at it they have been Lottery for the last two years and might be for 2 more at least? Very good chance they will be writing a story much like this about the Blazers in a couple years after Lillard.
We have already tanked for 2 seasons, so this is year 3. Another 3-4 years would be 6-7 years… which is pretty rough. I will endure it but my hopes aren’t too high.
The last couple years aren’t really true tanks though. Two years ago Dame was hurt. Last year we tried. We really did. We sucked and threw in the towel with 10 games left.
They resulted in the 3rd and 7th pick. Whether it was a true tank or not, we started the rebuild when Dame got injured. Heading into last season I knew we would suck, hence the “This offseason was an epic disaster” thread.
For who? Who are they trading them for? Picks 5 years from now who will take 2-3 years to develop? Half of us could be dead by then. I am all for giving our young players minutes to develop but this thought process that some have that vets need to be traded away to make that happen is insane to me. Nothing is stopping them now. You are right, our pick will need a couple of years to develop, but should do it off the bench until he proves he should start. Next year the next step should be competing for a playoff spot. We have enough vets to do it....if they can stay healthy.
Developing our young guys like Scoot and Shae is the quickest route to recovery. The longer it takes to develop them, the longer it will take to become relevant again. Having Brogdon and Grant Jack up 40 shots a night isn’t helping anyone. We aren’t good enough to compete but we won’t be bad enough to get a good pick. It’s the Dame paradox but on steroids.
If the 1v1 ISO ball Brogdon and Grant were running yesterday is the new normal, get rid of them. Are they trying to pad their stats to up their value? Is Billups really this awful at putting together an offense? Yes, Portland needs a couple of vets, but not vets playing this way. Nothing about the style of play helped Sharpe, period. It seemed he was being frozen out unless he got the ball on his own. Yes, he did get the ball a couple times late, but it was in bail out situations where the chuckers were covered well because Memphis knew they would be chucking. No ball movement. Totally predictable. Neither Brogdon nor Grant can be mistaken for Dame, who could have gone 1v1 hero ball last night and succeeded.
I think the difference, and it's a huge one, is that OKC got SGA for PG13. He was 1st team all-NBA last year at 24 years old. Portland did not get anywhere close to an elite talent like that from trading Dame; and that kind of elite talent is a giant step forward in moving from the lottery to contention yes, OKC also got Jalen Williams and he's a pretty good young starter. They also will get two more unprotected picks from LAC + and option to swap. And, a lottery protected 1st from Miami in 2025; unprotected in 2026. from their lottery picks, for sucking, they landed Josh Giddey and Chet Holmgren. Pretty clear the talent those guys have. Sharpe may end up better than either; he seems to be on that track. Scoot is the giant unknown pivot point for Portland right now. But again, the big difference is SGA. And it's not certain that OKC will be in the playoffs rather than the lottery this season. They are a long ways from contending right now
So you have seen no improvement from Shae? Is he not developing before our eyes? The kid is 20 and has improved dramatically. So clearly the amount of shots he takes has not hindered him. But yes I want him to shoot more. Scoot was getting plenty of time to learn on the court before he got hurt.
I'm in agreement with Pinwheel. If the notion is that developing the young guys means that you just run them out without vets and watch them flounder around for 82 games, then we need a different notion of development. Guys learn best by playing with people who know what the hell they're doing. It's certainly arguable that that doesn't describe the play of Grant and Brogdon for parts of last night's game, but I'm going with the theory that was an aberration. Seven games in, this is still very much a work in progress as guys learn their roles and what's expected of them.
Shai is in his 6th year, and they're building around him, so I'd say they are in their 6th year. Blazers are in their 2nd year, as I'd say we're building around Sharpe. So, patience is the word. BTW, the article acts like there is zero chance Shai asks out, but I could see him saying "we have 12 draft picks, the gm should have used some of them to get an all-star" (pulling a Lillard). Yes, I don't think The Process EFFECTIVELY started until they got Embiid (not their rookie-of-the-year PG who they immediately traded because he wasn't good enough to build around). I keep going back to the ZBo/Roy/LMA blazers who finished with 30-something wins. All 3 of those guys became all-stars. Were we able to keep them together (and healthy and happy), we obviously would have been very, very good. Similarly, I think Scoot/Sharpe/DA will be very, very good if we can keep them together (healthy and happy). This time we have less injury concerns, and each plays distinct positions (so we don't have to pray a certain player will play C instead of PF, ahem). Add in Camara (our Dort), and I'm very excited, regardless of this year's win total.
I think that if we are being optimistic, we can be good enough to be a lower-tier playoff team in ‘26. That means that in addition to Scoot, Shae, and DA, we will also be be adding two talents likely at the top of the lotto. That’s a core where DA could be the worst talent, which would be fantastic. That doesn’t include a core piece that could come from a trade for a combination of Grant, Ant, Brogdon, and Williams. In ‘25-‘26: - Shae will be in year 4 and about to start his rookie extension the following summer - Scoot will be in year 3 - DA will be in a contract year - whoever we draft in ‘24 will be going into year 2 - Camara will be going into year 3, he’s already a 3 point shot away from being a long term piece on the team - Walker might not be here. Rupert will be. By then, there should be a solid 4-5 guys who are ready to compete if we put the right vets around them. That’s the point I’d want to make the playoffs. I have a fear that if we try to make the playoffs too soon, we won’t actually have the talent to actually compete long term, like how Dame willed us to the playoffs in ‘15-16. 2 years, 3 at most, would be a great timeline for us to finally break through. We have to find a long term answer for Wemby and Holmgren in the meantime as well. Scoot + Shae + ____ + ____ + DA That’s our starting lineup for ‘25-26, so far. This is going to have to be our ‘25-26 lineup for me to be confident in our chances to compete until ‘34-35: Scoot + Shae + ____ + Flagg + DA Scoot + Shae + ____ + Sarr + DA Scoot + Shae + Buzelis + ____ + DA Fill out the other forward with whoever you want, whether it be a lotto talent or a player from a trade. There’s a lot of trade capital we can get back from trades for Ant, Grant, Brogdon, and Williams that we can fill out a roster with any of those starting lineups. As long as Schmitz keeps hitting, we’re winning.
I have seen a lot of development and most of that development came from him getting starter minutes. But there’s still work to be done. Shae was deferring quite a bit last night when we were in that massive drought. My point is that this team will rise as quickly as those two make it happen.
