OT: Breakout players and slumpers?

Which players (on any team) have surprised you either by being much better than they were last season, or not as good as you expected? (Yes, I know it's early. I don't care.)

And let's not have a string of "Brandon Roy"s in the "slumping" category, please.

 

Not as good as expected: Chris Bosh

Better than last year: Jason Richardson

 

Kind of thought Darren Collison would have higher assist number than he has so far. He's actually shooting better than I would've thought he could.

Still wish we'd gone after him.

 

Slumping: Channing Frye. Odd everyone complaining about letting him get away last year haven't said a word as he sucks so far this season. I'm guessing his sucking this year is also somehow Nate's fault.

 

Break-out:

Monta Ellis for me, at least so far. He's playing at a Roy-like (when Roy is healthy) level, his PER is up big. His 3pt shooting is down, but his FTA/game are up.

Rudy Gay is a very close second for me. He too has seen a huge increase in his PER. I wanted Gay over Roy in the 2007 draft. Maybe 5 years later, that isn't so far-fetched?

Hell, maybe Gay is the break-out player for me so far. 27ppg/7 reb/3 assists/23.7 PER is All-Star worthy.

Slumping:

Chris Bosh. Huge reduction in PER. I knew he'd see a point reduction, but his efficiency is way down. He's not part of any "Big Three" the way he is playing right now.

 

Just a comment on Bosh: he has the highest +/- on the Heat, and the highest +/- per minute of the "big three". He may not be putting up the numbers, but his presence is helping the team.

Agree on Ellis: never liked him as a player, but apparently getting married has done wonders for his game...

 

Here's a name for you: Reggie Evans. Averaging 12 rpg, over 21r/48. Not just a cockpuncher any more.

 

Oh, and another name: Pau Gasol. If the season ended today he'd be the League MVP.

...unlike Kevin Durant, who is scoring a lot, but not as much as last year, and shooting less than 40%.

It's funny, a bunch of players from the US team are looking like they really benefited: Rose, Gay, Gordon, Odom, Westbrook, Curry... but not Durant.

(And what do you know - Durant's back to having -ve +/- - just like his first years in the league. Maybe LAST year was the exception, not the previous ones. He said hopefully.)

 

Joakim Noah is beastin it up on my fantasy team this year.

 

He may be one of the best rebounders in the league, but he is probably the worst offensive player in the league. 23% on FGs... when he doesn't take hard shots at all. They have to all be right at the hoop and he still misses them.

 

I didn't know he had a reputation for that.

 

He does not. His reputation is strictly in the nads grabbing area.

 

Great rebounder, but couldn't score 10 points if you locked him in the gym by himself for an hour. Toronto is screwed. Bargnani can score, but is a horrid rebounder. Evans can rebound, but can't score. So, they are playing 4 on 5 on offense and on the boards. Is it any wonder they are so horrible?

BNM

 

My nonimee for breakout player (so far):

Arron Afflalo. Getting lost in all the Melo-drama in Denver, Afflalo is having a very nice season, He's shooting absoutely lights out (0.574 FG%, 0.417 3FG%, 0.913 FT%), starting and playing 34 MPG.

Second place goes to Tyrus Thomas. Yeah, I know, most consider him a bust and a headcase, and he still doesn't live up to his draft position/predraft hype, but he's actually having a nice, productive season off the bench for the Bobcats. He has a PER of 22.5 and is shooting well, getting to the line, rebounding and blocking shots. But, he plays for a crappy team so nobody notices.

Biggest Disappointment:

Troy Murphy. He's always been a bit if a stat padder, but at least he was an exceptional rebounder and decent shooter (he's averaged over 10 RPG five times in his career including 11.8 two seasons ago when he led the league in DRB%). The last two seasons his PER was 17.8 and 18.0 and his TS% was 0.614 and 0.585. This year, his PER is 4.7 and his TS% is 0.341. That's not declining, that's falling off a cliff.

Second place goes to Yi Jianlian. The supposed "Future All Star" can barely get off the bench for the woeful Wizards. And when he does, he flat out sucks. His PER is 6.2 and his TRB% is 7.6. Just to give you an idea how bad that is, he makes Andrea Bargnani looks like Moses Malone. Well, not quite, Bargnani still sucks big time at rebouinding the basketball, but Jianlian sucks even worse. Every year since he entered the league, Bargnani, with a career TRB% of 9.7 has been challenging Brad Sellers for the esteemed title of worst rebounding 7-footer in NBA history. Well, even though Bargnani is going all out to dethrone Sellers with a career worst TRB% of 7.8, Jianlian has him beat at 7.6. At the rate they are going, they both have the potential to wrestle the title from the legendary Sellers (career TRB% = 8.6). At least Bargnani can score. Jianlian can't even do that.

BNM

 

13 ppg/3 rpg/3 apg/game

per/36, his scoring is up, but his rebounding is down. His PER is at 17.5

If he is your 'break-out' player, then what is Batum, who puts up similar numbers, at a better PER, but in less minutes?

 

I have to add DeJuan Blair as a "slumping" player.

PER of 6, foul rate of 5.4/36 minutes, 27% FG, and a negative WS on a winning team as a starter.

 

With the usual caveats about small sample size for all involved...

Batum's improvement is incremental, He had his breakout season last year. Afflalo's improvement is monumental.

Batum's PER is up 2 points, from 17.3 to 19.3. That's an 11.5% increase in production. And his minutes are up only 3.9 MPG and still less than average for a starter at 28.7 MPG.

Afflalo's PER is up from 10.8 to 17.5, an increase of 62%. And his minutes are up by 6.7 MPG from 27.2 to 33.9 MPG. So, he's logging big minutes as a starter and his production is WAY up. That's what I consider a breakout season.

BNM

 

Fair enough. I didn't realize that Afflalo was producing at such an increased rate. Good find!

 

I'm switching my breakout player, since really Jason Richardson has just elevated his play.

My new breakout player is Gary Neal. Undrafted out of Towson St. he has given the Spurs great spark off the bench and been deadly behind the arc. A high school legend in Philadelphia he has been given a second chance by Popovich after being charged with rape and bouncing around overseas.

He's one of the best pure shooters in the league. Props to Popevich for giving him a second chance. Pop is great at giving players a chance.