What I'm hearing from someone in the know is that if Cleveland wins the title this June, LeBron will stay with the Cavs. And I'm told that there is only a "three percent chance, " those exact words, that LeBron will leave the Cavs (most likely to New York) if they lose. Math problem: if there's a 100% chance that he stays if they win and a 3% chance that he leaves if they lose, what is the overall percentage??
Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose) There's a missing piece of info: while there's a 3% chance he signs with the Kncks if they lose, is there a 97% chance he stays with the Cavs? Or is there a 50% chance he goes to some other team, etc.?
Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose) Okay. To be more clear. Here's exactly what I'm hearing: If Cavs win, 100% chance he stays with Cleveland If Cavs lose, 97% chance he stays, 3% chance he leaves Another source calculated that the Cavs have a 12.9% chance of winning the title. So what is the overall percentage that LeBron leaves? EDIT: 25.4 that Cavs reaches the Finals but only 12.9 that the Cavs win the whole thing.
Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose) That would be 2.6%, but those numbers sounds completely made up to me.
Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose) Actually it is: 100% chance he stay if they win. 3% chance he leaves to NY if they lose. That doesn't count other teams.
Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose) Exactly. So, if we accept KingSpeed's quoted probabilities (including the Cav's chances of winning a title), we can calculate that there's a 2.6% chance that he's a New York Knick next season (the 87.1% chance that the Cavs don't win multiplied by the 3% chance that he goes to New York in that eventuality).
Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose) Sources: KS is a silly goose. 3% chance of this being false.
Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose) My source is telling me it's more like 4%.
Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose) can there be a new post limit for the day put on his account? and shouldnt this be in the CLE forum?
Re: Sources: 3% chance that LeBron signs with the Knicks (IF they lose) Exactly! You're saying that there's a 97% chance my sources are correct!
