Pac-10 Bowl Qualifying Scenarios

Sadly, a lot of Pac-10 teams are beating each other out of bowl games. If the Pac-10 hadn't set up the toughest non-conference schedule and played nine conference games, we'd probably have just as many bowl teams as every other conference. Even the terrible ACC and Big East will end up sending more teams than us. So here's how it breaks down:

Already in:
Oregon
Stanford
Arizona

Already out:
USC
Arizona State
Washington State

Need to win:
Oregon State
Washington
California
UCLA

Oregon State needs to win only one of their next two. Unfortunately, they have to play two of the top five teams in the nation. When was the last time a team had four of the top five on their schedule? Stanford and Oregon will be their final games, and I don't see them pulling out either. Odds 5:1 to beat one of them. Kudos to them for helping keep USC 0-5 in the state of Oregon the last five seasons.

Washington needs to win both games. They have an iffy game against Cal, and a winnable game against Washington State. Likelihood? I say 3:2.

California only has to play Washington, and they have them at home. I'd go with 2:3.

UCLA has to beat both Arizona State and USC, neither an easy win. I would give them 5:1 to pull it off.

If I were to bet, I'd go with Cal as the only other bowl eligible team from the Pac-10.

 

So basically, the most teams that can get in: 3 (bringing the total up to 6), with Oregon State and UCLA completing their scenarios without damaging another team's chances, and the winner of Washington/Cal. The fewest teams: 0 (leaving the total at 3), should OSU not beat either opponent, UCLA drop one, Cal lose to Washington, and Washington lose to WSU.

 

If Oregon State wins one more and Oregon beats Arizona, OSU finishes 3rd in the Pac, remarkable

 

Several automatic bowl bids going unclaimed. Of course, after the Rose, Holiday and Sun bowls, they're crappy anyways.

 

UCLA is now out.

 

California is now out. Washington, surprisingly, has a realistic shot at a bowl game. They just have to beat Washington State.

 

Oregon State is now out. Washington up seven with half a quarter to go.

 

Washington wins, becoming only the fourth team from the Pac-10 to qualify for a bowl. USC would have qualified, too, if they weren't being penalized.