National - Gallup Tracking - Obama +2 National - Rasmussen - McCain +1 National - Hotline - Obama +3 National - Reuters/Zogby - Obama +2 National - Ipsos - Tie National - Research 2000 - Obama +4 Florida - CNN/Time - Tie Ohio - CNN/Time - Obama +2 North Carolina - CNN/Time - McCain +1 Virginia - Public Policy Polling - Obama +2 Wisconsin - CNN/Time - Obama +3 Indiana - CNN/Time - Obama +6 Colorado - ARG - McCain +2 Louisiana - ARG - McCain +7 Missouri - ARG - McCain +5 Montana - ARG - McCain +2 Nevada - ARG - McCain +3 New Mexico - ARG - Obama +7 West Virginia - ARG - McCain +4 Ohio - ARG - McCain +6 Ohio - Public Policy Polling - McCain +4 Colorado - Fox News - McCain +2 Ohio - Fox News - McCain +3 Florida - Fox News - McCain +5 Virginia - Fox News - Tie Virginia - Survey USA - Obama +4 Obama has recovered nationally, and is leading in the popular vote again, based on recent daily trackers. Montana and North Carolina had a massive shift after the VP announcement, and seems to have bounced back after the honeymoon. Ohio is a genuine toss up again. Florida is inching closer, but still not a genuine toss up, and definitely in the leans McCain column. New Mexico seems to be safe Obama now, as demonstrated by MSNBC moving it into their Obama category last week. Missouri/Indiana remain in that fringe swing state area. They mgiht become swing states as the election gets closer, maybe not. In light of another big hurricane, it seems Lousiana has moved more towards Obama. Wisconsin has tightened up a bit, but this is just McCain gaining among evangelicals there. Obama is a lock for Wisconsin, he is still polling over 50%, and when a guy consistently polls over 50% like that, he's gonna win the state. Colorado is still a swing state, but it seems to be favoring McCain. Palin likely played well there...Alaska = Nature and so does Colorado. Virginia seems to be in the lean Obama category. That has to make Obama very happy. Then West Virginia is the other one that is tightening up a lot. A June Rasmussen poll previously showed it tightening up to 8 points after the primaries concluded, and a Blankership poll earlier in September, in the midst of Mccain's convention bounce, showed it at +5. I think a few things are playing into West Virginia. First, the recent economic downturn is making them look Democrat. They loved Bill Clinton, and they probably realize Obama is going to bring them back the closest to what Clinton brought. Second, so many of the women there seemed to be Hillary drones. I think they genuinely took Hillary's message that if they voted for her, they have a lot more in common with Obama than McCain. They probably are Hillary-nazi's, rather then straight up feminazi's there, so they might not want to see Palin become the first woman in the oval office over Hillary. Third, there is probably some overspill effect from Virginia going on. West Virginia is a state that should go Democrat, but didn't for Gore/Kerry, and Obama still has the race problem to overcome, but he is making leaps and bounds there, and might make this one really close on election day, because seem to really not like the Palin pick.
Survey USA confirms the New Mexico poll by ARG. Obama up +8 in the new SurveyUSA poll there. This is pretty important I think, because it makes first off, Nevada and West Virginia enough to tilt the election Obama's way (269 EV's, which then would be decided in Obama's favor in Congress). Second, it makes winning Colorado = winning election. If Obama somehow manages to lose New Hampshire (which looks unlikey at this point), Obama wins the election (269 with Colorado, and 263 with Virginia).
Obama also up 5 in both the registered voter and likely voter national poll in the new CBS/Times poll. McCain's convention bounce didn't erode away, a bubble burst. I would like to know what the reason for this is. It seems like Palin's interview with ABC might be the reason for this, because I don't believe that the recent financial crisis stuff and McCain's fundamentals are strong gaffe are factoring into the daily trackers yet. If voters are responding negatively, as recent polls may be the result of, to Palin's ABC Interview, it is a good sign, as voters are not giving her benefit of the doubt anymore, like when she first was named.
A note on that CNN Florida poll where it says Tie above. I got my numbers from realclearpoltics earlier, which was the 2 person numbers. With Third Party Candidates involved, Obama is leading by +4. Nader seems to be taking a big chunk away from McCain.
I'm not so sure it's going go every completely die down. The networks talk about her more than anything else. I'm not sure that will ever end. I do think the fact that Obama has regained the lead in a lot of polls before the first debate is surprising but you know this race is so close that I don't think either republicans or democrats should put much into the polling right now. Wait until the debates and then we'll get an idea of how this race is starting to really take shape.
Sarah Palin pretty much said today: Barack Obama cannot lead our nation towards energy independence because he has not fought in a war. It's quite easy to see why she has the lowest favorability of the 4 candidates. I think she might be equally or more so responsible for McCain falling behind than the Wall Street Crisis. I don't think after her interview on ABC where she came off not knowing anything, that the American public is going to take her attacks at face value anymore, or believe something that comes out of her mouth before fact checking it.
It is true, Obama's putting McCain in his place from most of the polls I regularly follow on RCP. People are realizing how sexist that VP pick was. Additionally, O's here tonight in Coral Gables at this fancy Hotel I've been at a few times (The Biltmore). :]
Or maybe it's because the Democrats and the media launched a smear campaign against her as soon as she was named VP.
Hillary launched a devastating smear campaign which dragged O through the mud. He's still on top though.
What smear campaign? There is a different between distorting records, calling a person a muslim, etc and depicting a person for who they are. That is all I've seen the Democrats do. Show Palin for who she is. The only possible smear campaign would be the whether Palin's youngest child isn't hers thing, and that was just a few people on DailyKos, which aren't part of the Democratic establishment. Guys like Olbermann, Maddow, didn't jump on her for that, or even jump on her for when her daughter actually was pregnant.
Keith Olbermann is donating $100 to the Alaska Special Olympics every time that Sarah Palin lies. He had to cut a $3,700 check tonight (did it on air). And now he's giving out to one viewer a week, "Aunt Sarah's Moose Stew in a Can" for who finds the most lies I believe. This is absolutely hilarious.
Breaking News: "Troopergate" probe will end before presidential election. Porbably by October 10th. via MSNBC
<iframe height="339" width="425" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/26798170#26798170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>
Yeah, never mind sending two dozen attorneys over to Alaska to dig dirt on her. Never mind the bullshit about the Bridge to Nowhere, never mind the crap about the state trooper firing, her church. It's all who she really is, a right wing nut job who's extreme on abortion and wants Alaska to secede from the United States. DailyKos not being a part of the Democratic establishment is laughable, as is citing Keith Olbermann in your posts. Sites like DailyKos and MoveOn.org have got the Democratic party by balls and have had them for several years now.
How come this is the first time I'm hearing this? Why was this not all over the news? Link Keith forgot that one. But he seems to forget a lot of things. Intentionally most of the time.
I don't know, I just look and listen to Sarah Palin and the only thing I can think of is: what, they couldn't find a Hooter's girl?
It must be tough being a smart and good looking woman, because people have a hard time looking past her hooters.
