Exactly how good has Lillard been? Well, if he continues this level of play he’s going to end the season averaging over 25 points and 7 assists. If he does that, he lands on a list that’s almost exclusively Hall of Famers (http://bkref.com/tiny/BVp6u ) . While that’s all well and good it doesn’t quantify how he went from fringe all star to legitimate MVP candidate. Yes, candidate- not favorite. If you have anyone other than Steph Curry on your ballot you should have your voting privileges stripped for life. No making statements, no ridiculous off the wall votes. It’s Steph. That’s it. With that out of the way, you can make an argument that Lillard is on the rung below Curry with Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, and Kawhi Leonard. Before you get worked up, realize that being mentioned in the same breath as James and Durant does not mean Lillard >/= Lebron or Durant. It simply means Lillard has elevated his game to such a level that he can be mentioned in the same sentence and you shouldn’t bat an eye. Not convinced, here’s more than a few reasons to help you change your mind. Lets first take a look at Lillard’s bread and butter, his masterpiece, his… you get it… the pick and roll. As you can see above, you cannot go under and you cannot go over. If you caught he’s now able to take defenders off the dribble all the way to the basket and finish effectively. Since his rookie year he’s managed to add something new to his game, which considering where he started when he came into the league- is pretty impressive. When he was drafted in 2012 he brought a control of the pick and roll not normally seen from a rookie- finishing in the top 15% of league in PPP. This year he’s angling for top 10%- no small feat considering he runs it more than jut about anyone else in the league. At .934 PPP he sits in the 88th percentile for the season, but if you look at what he’s done over the last 17 games he’s averaging 1.00 PPP in the pick and roll. This is akin to Lillard scoring on every other pick and roll if he shot nothing but 2-point shots. In case you were wondering… that’s good. Really good. What’s enabling Lillard to be even better in the pick and roll game than before? He’s literally better in every facet. Go under the pick? Though it hardly happens because he’s such a great shooter, At this point in Lillard’s career, if you’re going under picks against him you’re probably going to get benched – or traded. Speaking of which, hey there Jeff Green! Okay, it’s not ACTUALLY Green who goes under, it’s Mike Conley, but it’s Green who stares as if he’s the most recent graduate of the James Harden Defensive Academy. .. Speak of the devil and he shall appear! That’s the only thing that will be said about the Houston game at this point. But feel free to watch that over and over again with this in mind… Because Lillard has been so hot from outside lately, defenses are starting to pick him up earlier and closer to half court. This is a double edged sword as you can see here. Tony Snell gets aggressive out high and is forced to go over the pick by Mason Plumlee. This split second separation keeps Snell from being able to pressure Lillard from behind, who takes advantage by getting both Gasol and Snell off balance with a hesitation/in-and-out dribble, driving to the rim and ultimately finishing strong at the rim. Gasol made the mistake of showing too much of an angle and Lillard took it. It’s little things like this that have been responsible for his improved shooting inside of late- up to nearly 53% (FG%) on drives out of the pick and roll. Essentially it becomes a no win scenario -go over, go under, it doesn’t really matter he’s going to eat that up. What about when teams try to trap/blitz the pick and roll coverage? Early in the season Lillard was susceptible to bad decision making in certain instances. Here former Blazers Patty Mills and LaMarcus Aldridge blitz the pick and roll, forcing Lillard wider than he wants to go. This allows Boris Diaw to rotate over and get in position to protect the lane. Lillard already has his mind made up and doesn’t see that Ed Davis has sealed off Manu Ginobili on the weakside. Instead, it results in a contested attempt that uh… falls short. Fast forward a few weeks and you can see that Lillard has made a few adjustments. Granted, Kemba Walker and Frank Kaminsky are not elite level defenders- however the onus here is on Lillard to make the correct play/read. Saying he made the correct read here is a lot like calling saying the sky is blue. More “duh” than anything all that enlightening. However, there’s a few things to be taken in this instance. Lillard recognizes the trap early, adjusts with a crossover dribble splitting the defense, and attacks before the second big can get out front to crowd the lane and contest the shot. In fact, it’s probably best that Tyler Hansbrough not get in Lillard’s way in this particular case. If you’re talking efficiency in the NBA, you better be talking free throws. Want a sure fire way to up effectiveness and scoring? Get to the line. Before this ridiculous streak, spurt, growth, still not sure what to call it- he had a free throw rate of .276. That means he was getting a free throw for basically 1-out-of-4 shots. Since January 18th, he’s at .354. That might not seem big, but that’s over a 28% increase- also he’s now getting more than 1 free throw for every 3 shots he takes. If you remember from the CJ McCollum profile, while it’s important to make your free throws, it’s more important to generate free throws. Of course there’s a point of diminishing returns here, but the math is pretty simple- increased opportunity outweighs increased guarantees in the long run. In Lillard’s case it just doesn’t matter because he’s raised both his rate and his percentage. Over the same span of time he’s hitting nearly 88% of his free throws, and he’s made 45 straight. While not wholly responsible, this type of action has been instrumental in generating free throws for Lillard lately. Seemingly out of nowhere, Lillard has perfected Chris Paul’s stop and pop when a trailing defender is scrambling hard to recover after the screen. With the majority of Lillard’s pick and roll action originating in the “high” position- it makes sense that he would add this to his game. Defenders are now wary of chasing too hard over the top, affording Lillard the opportunity to; survey the defense a bit longer, get a shot off cleaner, get a head start turning the corner, and/or frees his sight line to make a cleaner pass. The final area to touch on here is Lillard’s improved transition game. While Dame came into the league with that finely tuned ability to run the pick and roll, the transition game has never really come natural to him. This year he’s in the bottom quarter of the NBA in terms of PPP in transition. He has 4 total leak outs on the season, out of 149 fast break opportunities. He’s almost exclusively the ball handler in the open court and he hasn’t always made the best decisions. After averaging .899 PPP on the season he’s managed to boost that up to 1.04 PPP. These kinds of points are invaluable as they’re often some of the highest percentage shots one could possibly receive in a game. Look no further than Russell Westbrook, who has 356 transition opportunities, and a 1.163 PPP. As earlier stated, Lillard currently sits at 149 and .899, so Westbrook gets out in the open court more than twice as often and finishes with more efficiency. It’s no secret that Westbrook is devastating on the break, if Lillard were able to elevate just a bit more- now you’re looking at Lillard moving up into the truly elite scorers in the NBA. Thirty points per game is actually an achievable thing if he’s able to add this to his game as well. And why not? Every time you question the man he just comes back stronger. Match that up with an increased free throw rate, better finishing inside, and an improved ability to diagnose defenses and the picture starts to get clearer on how Damian Lillard is upping his scoring and assisting averages. The final piece to the puzzle, defense. Next week- Damian Lillard, is he a good defender?
Apparently the video failed at some point - I've since reloaded the clips. Sorry about that! Just talked to the guys at 620 AM- Bunker is in Seattle still so the podcast will be postponed until tomorrow. Hopefully we'll be adding a 4th win in a row after tonight to talk about!
So everyone is on board with Dame is a legitimate MVP candidate? Not exactly the response I was expecting- interesting.
For me, it's nice that he's in the discussion for second place, but as you so directly put it - "If you have anyone other than Steph Curry on your ballot you should have your voting privileges stripped for life. No making statements, no ridiculous off the wall votes. It’s Steph. That’s it." The fact that Curry has it so thoroughly locked up has really diminished my desire to give a shit about the MVP award. I think a more realistic debate is COTY. I think Stotts deserves that award if we finish in the top 6. I get that Kerr will win by default if they break the win record, but Terry has had a much tougher task and he has really proven his worth this season.
Actually, I think most of the board is right there on this. As you said, Curry is obviously the MVP, but there's no reason Dame shouldn't be in the race for 2nd. He's been unbelievable since he came back from his plantar fascia injury.
To me it's not about winning the MVP award right now- it's about being in that conversation of absolute best players in the world. Other than what Roy could have been, the Blazers haven't been able to say that since Drexler, and probably more accurately- since Walton. That's a pretty huge deal. Just because Steph is on another plane of existence doesn't mean what can't marvel at what Lillard is currently doing. It shouldn't diminish the fact that he's in rare and exalted company, putting up 25/7 while carrying the load on a nightly basis. I'm not one to harp on the Portland doesn't land FA deal b/c there's so many variables that factor into it- particularly having both the money and the upward trajectory that could lure FAs when they're available- which is another massive factor- and I thoroughly believe that Lillard having his hat in the ring as a legitimate candidate is something that could be a huge driving force when it comes July 1st and the FA from hell begins. As for CotY my ballot goes: Stotts, Stevens, Kerr, Vogel, Popovich. Luke Walton has to get some serious credit, you can't just give it to Kerr- regardless how good that team is. Stott has outperformed expectations by such epic proportions, it's really absurd. My theory is, they win 42 or more games- it's his award. Going 15 games over prediction when you were thought of as legitimately one of the worst teams in the league with a roster that only has 2 players from the 2012-13 season on it still? Yeah, that's more than a bit impressive. Brad Stevens is a complete G. If Stotts wasn't the coach, I would be outside the Moda Center picketing until they pulled Stevens away from the Celtics. Just google "Brad Stevens ATO" and get your popcorn ready- dude is a mad scientist.
You'd be surprised at the comments/mail/traffic I receive about Lillard being on that 3rd tier, not quite up there yet, or even lower. The range on how Lillard is viewed both inside and outside the Portland market is quite huge. Personally, I've been Team Dame from the get go- I firmly affixed to that wagon and I'm riding it till the wheels fall off. I've got some hell when he's gone through a funk or two, but now that he's really up there- as a fan... it's pretty damn cool.
Dame is definitely playing at the level of an MVP the last month. The Curry phenomenon just changes the whole narrative; we're seeing possibly the most dominant statistical season in the history of basketball. I highly doubt Curry can keep this up next season. It will be interesting if Dame can get some MVP votes. Haven't seen more than a token few since Drexler. It does seem that Dame is putting the defense in impossible situations; sort of in a chess game where you trap your opponent so either move they will lose a rook or queen. We do that throughout the game and there aren't any effective counters. I like your piece on pace last week; the pace and CJ's ability to be a ying with Dame's yang have made this group real special. Having every player under 30 mpg besides those two. It sounds like in theory we should add a clear third starter next season but what does that do to Dame/CJ shot attempts? Do they lose a few pick and roll opportunities? What does that do to our defensive energy? You always want to look to improve a team but sometimes making a move thats great at the time ultimate is terrible afterwards. Who would've thought Will Barton is far more effective than Aaron Afflalo a few months after we do that trade. It was a ton of fun having Harkless on the floor at PF and running the hell out of Golden State. I wonder how sustainable that would be long term? Yeah teams can slow down their half court offense; bit its not just the full court running we could do. Screens and continuous movement in the half court for 48 minutes. The defense has to follow players repeatedly and at some point they break down; we can go on big 12-2 runs. The Spurs did some of that against the NBA and eventually the Heat to easily win the title 2 years ago. They just came at you in waves and waves. You could hang with them for a half but at some point they just wore you out and got clean open repeated easy shots. As great as the Warriors are can Steph, Klay, Draymond run around nonstop for 35+ minutes? Certainly I'd expect to lose against them this season but it would make for a heck of an interesting clash of styles. Everyone tries to slow the Warriors down; we're one of the few teams that can force them to speed up. One great thing about Dame is he can always get an average shot off. 5 seconds left and the offense hasn't worked he can jack up a step back jumper. Its not an ideal shot but its certainly better than a violation. Then at end of quarters we can always get a 2 for 1 because him and CJ can take the 33 second shot. Those shots might only be 38% which would be bad over the course of the game. But many teams end up with a terrible prayer.
I can actually quantify those late clock shots ;-) Lillard and McCollum are both about average, ratings wise- but average is better than poor. They do however possess the innate ability to get the shot off- which is of course, harder to quantify. What's also interesting is how good both players are from dead ball situations- not after timeouts, which is a bit strange, but from side out of bounds plays they're both in the top 15% in the league as far as ratings go. The only way Dame gets an MVP vote is if Mike Rice gets to cast one. This should be such a no doubt year, every single 1st place vote has to go to Steph. As for how they move and defenses are forced to counter- it's not just Dame and CJ, it's a ton of off ball action. If you read Zach Lowe's piece the other day- he noted that no one in the league has more off ball movement and/or screens than the Blazers. Which is a bit strange b/c their assist rates and passing are sub par at best... something I'm analyzing right now in fact... but back to the point- as good as Dame is they need a 3rd scorer/creator. Look at every successful model in the league right now...all but CLE have that 3rd playmaker, Love is not in the mold of Draymond or even the Gasol's in the playmaking dept. The way the league is right now you have to move defenses one of 3 ways- ball movement, player movement, or physical movement. The only real physical force in the league now is Cousins, so that leave the other 2 options. I just really hope that in pursuit of that 3rd player the Blazers don't spend max money on Parsons or Barnes. Neither of those guys are worth that price tag- stretching that much to improve incrementally? Yeah... not something I'm high on.
Dame is amazing but sorry, Curry to me is the most sought after, game changing player in the league so far this season....he'd have to have quite a setback to lose the MVP but Dame has had enough impact in Portland to be challenging him...Curry is playing with basically the same championship roster and we're fielding a team of not so long ago complete strangers. Given that....a case could be made for Dame having the more impressive year..but Dame missed 7 games that we won most of as well..Both great players.....would anyone trade Curry for Lillard? I'm at a point where I wouldn't.
No question, Curry will win the Season MVP award. I'm okay with that. I'm looking forward to Dame winning the Finals MVP award. When Dame first came into the league averaging 19.0 ppg, 6.5 apg, and 3.1 rpg with a PER of 16.4, I was excited and not expecting him to progress much higher. I figured a 22 year old senior from a small school probably didn't have much of a higher ceiling. I'm glad to say I was wrong. He's now averaging 25.4 ppg, 7.0 apg, and 4.3 rpg with a PER of 23.2. And his best stat is that he has our team playing at a playoff level with a record of 33-28. He's currently 25 and just entering his 'prime'. I've posted this in the past, but here's a look at PER vs age since 2001 (for players playing more than 96 min/season). Players typically level off around ages 25-28. Do we have another 3 years to look forward to with him performing at this high level? Can he continue to increase his productivity? I have a hard time imagining him continuing this steady climb of improvement, but I've certainly underestimated him to this point!
Of course Dame shouldn't get first place MVP votes; maybe a few second or third place. Yeah long term the Blazer need additional offensive creators besides DameCJ. It doesn't have to be one player though; it can be a combo of a couple guys who fill that role. Could Vonleh, Crabbe and or Plumlee fill that void in a few years? They certainly have room to improve offensively. Makes it all the more impressive we're already a top10 offense.
Yeah I think this is about Dame's max in PER which is fine since he's basically at a MVP level. Also with better offensive help in future seasons we should win more but Dames usage will go down and his PER likely drops a tad as well. Doesn't mean he's playing worse just the inherent attributes of the PER stat. That's a great graph with age I think most fans underestimate how quickly players begin to decline at the age of 28. We've seen a significant decline with LeBron and he's only two years past 28. He's still a top5 player but a few years ago he was arguably right there with Jordan. Not any longer. When LaMarcus was here at 26 he was noticeably more athletic than last year or this season.
