While much of the credit of the last 17 games, where the Trail Blazers have gone 14-3, deservedly goes to Damian Lillard and to a lesser extent CJ McCollum, this type of run doesn’t come together without the impact of the “other guys.” The other guys I’m referring to in this case are Gerald Henderson and more recently Maurice Harkless. Both players have been instrumental in helping the Blazers push the pace- particularly Harkless- who’s presence brings the Blazers pace up almost three possessions more per game (per NBAwowy.com) than without him on the floor. Whether or not this style of play is sustainable over the course of the season is still debatable, and it’s one of the major themes that will dictate whether or not the Trail Blazers make the playoffs. At no other time this season has pace factored into a Blazers game than against the Golden State Warriors Friday night. Currently the Blazers are 18th in the league with a pace of 97.61, but that doesn’t tell the story of the last two months. For a clear example look no further than the two most used lineups against the Warriors topping out above a 104 pace. Pushing the ball was clearly a part of the game plan that night- and it looks to factor into the plan going forward. This style of play has become more and more prominent as the season has progressed, with pace rising from 96.23- 21st in December, to a rating of 100.11, 10th highest in the league, in February. Outside of Lillard and McCollum pushing the ball up court and initiating the offense early, the play of Henderson and Harkless on both ends of the court have played hugely into the Blazers success. Let’s first start with Gerald Henderson. Coming into the season off of hip surgery didn’t exactly do him any favors. He missed training camp and didn’t get onto the court until the ninth game of the season. In his first 15 games he managed to play more than 20 minutes twice, and in that time frame had a +/- greater than +3 exactly once. In mid-December Henderson had a few decent games, glimmers of potential started to break through, but they were few and far between. The month of January looked to be more of the same. He had one 20+ minute game and two double digit scoring efforts heading into the January 23rd match up with the Lakers. Since that night? Henderson has scored 10 or more in nine out of eleven games, posting double digit positives in the +/- column in all but four contests (going negative only once, vs Raptors). In Henderson’s first 30 games of the season he was shooting under 38% while averaging less than 7 PPG and 2.5 RPG. In the 17 games since he’s nearly at 10 PPG (9.7) on 46.6% from the field and chipping in 3+ RPG and almost a steal a night. Obviously, an uptick in FG% and other factors with an increase in minutes is a great thing to see, but what’s making it easy for him is that he’s figuring out his place on the team. Take a look at this shot chart and you’ll see that Henderson excels shooting in only a few areas. The other side of that coin is that he KNOWS where he hits from and that’s where he gets hit shots. Beyond Henderson taking and making shots he’s comfortable with, it’s when he’s getting shots that’s starting to factor in significantly. In December, he was taking 0.7 shots per game in early clock situations (22-18 seconds remaining on the shot clock). In February he’s taking 1.4 shots per game in those same situations, and shooting a fantastic 67% doing so. Doing some simple math it’s easy to see where he’s getting an uptick in both his PPG and his FG%. In fact, as a team the Trail Blazers are shooting an NBA best 68.7% on early clock shots, taking over 13 shots per game. There’s more to it than just shooting early in the clock. It’s pushing tempo off makes, misses and turnovers. Pushing it with the intent of getting there before the defense is set, ready, or anticipating anything. A perfect simple of pushing tempo off a miss, CJ McCollum pushes the pace here after a miss. Henderson hustles down court and gets set in the left corner, both Darren Collison and DeMarcus Cousins are late getting back. McCollum recognizes the defense hasn’t yet walled off the lane, drives and draws a lazy reach from Rajon Rondo, while Quncy Acy and Marco Belinelli do their best to contain McCollum they can’t recover in time when he passes to a wide open Henderson who calmly knocks down the uncontested three-pointer with 18 seconds on the shot clock. Another great and highly efficient way to generate early clock offense- forcing live ball turnovers. It’s no secret that the Blazers defense is playing much better than earlier in the year. In fact, I discussed this exact thing 2 weeks ago (insert LINK here)- what’s impressive, is that not only have the Blazers maintained that level of intensity, they’ve actually increased it. Henderson doesn’t have the size that Harkless has, so you won’t see him crashing the boards as often, but his impact can be found in the open court both defensively and offensively. Here you can see both Henderson and Ed Davis pressuring Draymond Green, while McCollum and Harkless have retreated to stop the initial fast break. Henderson pokes the ball loose and it ends up in Harkless’ hands, who triggers the break. Harkless looks for the initial outlet pass immediately, but Crabbe is picked up, so he puts the ball on the floor and drives the lane. As soon as Livingston commits, he drops the ball off to a cutting Henderson who finishes with the high percentage dunk. In this 17 game span, the Blazers are forcing 3 more turnovers per game when Henderson is on the floor. The team steal rate goes up nearly 3%, which helps explain how the Blazers have risen from a bottom of the league team in forcing turnovers to 14th in steals per game. If Henderson is just figuring out where he is, imagine how Maurice Harkless feels. In and out of the lineup- mostly out in the early months of the season. He’s exploded over the last 5 games averaging over 14 PPG and 7 RPG- with over 3 ORPG in almost 27 MPG. Contrast that with the 17 MPG he was getting, if he was getting on the floor, and the roughly 5 PPG- well, night and day probably doesn’t do it justice. If anyone has benefitted from the Blazers opting to push the pace, it’s Mr. Harkless. Often without a role other than cursory slasher on backside action of Lillard/McCollum pick and rolls in the half court, the young 6’9” 215lb forward wasn’t being fully utilized. Harkless has gone from barely 0.4 shots in early clock situations to 1.6 shots per game in February. Again, there’s a couple components at play here- firstly; Harkless is working hard early. He’s running the floor and getting either out in front of the pack for the early break or he’s getting into pockets of space behind/to the side of the defense. Secondly, guards are looking for him in both instances. Early offense is again triggered by McCollum- this time no one stops the ball, no ball pressure means McCollum is free to diagnose the court and look for his best option. Draymond Green has drifted out to cover Henderson in the corner because the Warriors have failed to get back (again). Leandro Barbosa is on the strong side, initially sinking down to help cover Harkless, but as McCollum comes up he’s forced to step back up on Allen Crabbe who’s already hit twice from 3-point range. Steph Curry communicates, telling Green to slide inside but it’s too late as McCollum darts a pass to Harkless, who calmly catches finishes over Green inside. Harkless is shooting 61% inside on the season on 150 shots- contrast that with 30% on 75 shots from 3-point range, and you can see that he’s figured out where he needs to shoot from in order to be successful. As you can see here, Harkless is a bit less diverse in his shooting locations than Henderson. This example is a bit easier to dissect. Get steal. Run, Harkless, run. The key component here, is that Lillard is actively looking for him. This looks to be something that was emphasized in those practices you may or may not have been hearing about in January. They talk about defense, effort, and buy in- part of that is not only committing to playing good defense and getting turnovers, but turning those into instant/easy points. Those easy points bare out in the numbers when both Harkless and Henderson are on the floor. In the early stages of the season, that is to say the first 39 games of the year, these two only spent 181 minutes together on the court. They played at a glacial 90.9 pace, with an eFG% of 47.1 and those units combined to shoot 43.3% from the field overall. That’s, ugh, not good. However, since January 2nd that unit has bumped their pace up to 98, seen their eFG% rise to 54.8% and their shooting 49% from the floor. The only place their numbers don’t bare out “better” than other lineups is based on points per possession, because they’re not the 3-point shooting threats that Lillard, McCollum, and Crabbe are- and typically only one of those are on the court with both Harkless and Henderson. While these improvements from Henderson, Harkless, and others such as Crabbe, Ed Davis, and Mason Plumlee are welcome additions- how sustainable is it really? As you’ve seen from Henderson’s shot chart, he really only wants to get to and shoot from three different places on the floor. Harkless really only wants to get right to the rim. How long is it before good teams and their advanced scouting departments prepare for these new look Blazers and deny them these early/easy opportunities by taking care of the ball and getting back on defense instead of crashing the boards. Making sure they pick up Harkless and Henderson in transition, denying them the ability to get clear runs to the rim. Clearly there’s counters the Blazers can put in place, but how fast and how effectively they make those adjustments could be the difference between winning and losing down the stretch run. With 11 of the next 13 games on the road, mostly against playoff caliber opponents, we should see the Blazers resolve tested heavily, and it could ultimately be about their ability or inability to force turnovers and get early shots that decides whether or not they make the playoffs.
Thanks guys- much appreciated, truly. But where are the pitchforks? I was just getting used to folks looking to argue!
