Potential Upside Podcast write up- EP 4 Is it safe to critically analyze CJ McCollum?

Is it safe to critically analyze CJ yet?


In an earlier podcast I noted how trying to critically analyze CJ McCollum was next to impossible. Not because he’s above it, but the fan reaction around his spectacular rise from potential laden lottery pick to certified twenty point per game scorer and media darling, was so positive that any kind of negative analysis was sure to provoke even the gentlest of Blazers fans. Before this article was finalized a few cursory questions were thrown out on various fan boards, websites, and Twitter to see what reactions were to some of my earlier findings…pitchforks were sharpened. Torches were lit. Tar was being heated. No one was coming out unscathed.


By now even the most cursory Trail Blazer fans know the name CJ McCollum and that it comes along with a positive connotation. Most know that he “came out of nowhere,” last year in a playoff series the Blazers that found the Blazers in over their heads without their heart and soul, Wes Matthews. Die hard Blazers fans know he’s a 4-year guard out of Lehigh University with a penchant for scoring. He famously lead little known Lehigh over perennial national powerhouse Duke in the NCAA Tournament in 2012. One of the most surprising upsets in the tournaments long standing history. All of this serves as the ground work for the legend of CJ McCollum. An against the odds every man who did everything in his power to realize his dreams of playing in the NBA. That’s something that most sports fans can relate to. When an athlete becomes relatable, fans can build up a shield impervious to facts, reason, and/or analysis. It’s not entirely a bad thing. This shield can prevent some of the hot takes from sticking early- negative or positive- and allow the player to showcase his full talent. It gives fans a chance to form an opinion about not only the player on the court but the player off the court. While these opinions may or may not lead to some confirmation bias down the road is another story, but the bottom line is that people can form an opinion based on a substantial amount of data. As opposed to instant hot takes that are so good you can’t wait to hear what Stephen A. Smith has to say.


With all of that said it’s time to analyze Christian James McCollum. CJ’s per game stats, 20.7 points, 4.3 assists, and 3.5 rebounds all rate very well for guards across the league. As of this writing he sat at 10th in league in scoring, 11th in 3 pointers attempted, and 9th in 3 pointers made. All this from a man who went from 1,449 combined minutes in his first two years in the league to 1,657 minutes already this season. Saw his points per game go from 6.8 to 20.7 and his usage rate jump from 20.5% to 27.2%. That’s a lot to get from someone who had never really had the opportunity no matter how you look at it. Twenty point per game scorers, efficient one particularly don’t grow on trees. But just how efficient is McCollum?


This is the part where the torches are lifted in anger and the mob starts moving perpetually towards the writer…but stay with me here. “Hear me out”...famous last words. As much as the NBA has become an analytics and data driven league, there’s still a limited amount of players who can fulfill the analytics prophecy of three pointers and free throws. Currently there are 23 players in the NBA who get up five or more three point attempts per night. That’s less than one per team. Factor in that those players seem to be consolidated on particular teams, Golden State Warriors (Steph Curry, Klay Thompson), Charlotte Hornets (Kemba Walker, Nic Batum), Boston Celtics (Isiah Thomas, Avery Bradley), and the Portland Trailblazers (Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum) have eight of those previous mentioned 23. With two of those, Nic Batum and Wes Matthews as former Blazers. Sixteen of those players are shooting 35% or better from 3-point range, topping at a ridiculous 48.6% by JJ Redick. CJ comes in the upper echelon of the long bombers at a shade under 39% Taking over six three pointers per game and making 2.4 per game, that accounts for a third of his offense on a nightly basis. Where do these shots comes from? Over 20% of his makes from 3 come between 15-7 seconds on the shot clock (44% of his total shots, and 47% of his 3s come in this range). Meanwhile 58% of his 3 point attempts come off zero dribbles, or the catch and shoot variety, where he’s hitting at 37.2%. What does that all mean? Well let’s contrast that with someone McCollum is often compared to, Bradley Beal. When you look at Beal’s numbers, you can see a steady narrative forming- mostly operates in the average to early clock, 76% of his 3 point attempts come between 7-24 seconds on the shot clock. McCollum in the same time span has over 80% of his attempts fall in that range. Not a huge difference for the most part. How about what kinds of shots they take, Beal takes over 67% of his 3 point attempts on the catch and shoot variety. McCollum as previously mentioned takes 58% on the catch and shoot.



Okay, so the numbers are starting to show something a little bit different now. This is where you can see some clear delineations in their games, and how they’re utilized- CJ takes 28% of his 3s taking/using 2 or more dribbles, and 34% of his 3’s come off of 2 or more seconds of touch time. Beal on the other hand takes 2 or more dribbles 19% of the time and takes 2 or more dribbles only 23% of the time. While on the top level these two could be seen as similar shooters based on three point percentage (Beal at 39%, McCollum at 38%) Besides point out the differences in how each gets and generates their 3 point attempts it’s worth noting that of McCollum’s attempts that have 6+ seconds of touch time he’s shooting ridiculous 45%. In a smaller sample size Beal is shooting 71% and Eric Gordon is shooting 60%- but we’re talking about 7 and 6 attempts over the season where CJ has 35. As small as that sample size seems, that accounts for over 10% of McCollum’s attempts. One final note on this particular point- McCollum, Gordon, and Beal all shoot right at 40% on pull up 3 point attempts.


So what are the takeaways here? McCollum’s numbers bare out that he’s not a one trick pony. While he’s a good catch and shooter threat, he’s more than capable of creating on his own, at any time in the clock. If you’ve watched a Blazers game at nearly any point this season this has been born out over and over again, sometimes in rather spectacular fashion. However, all of those variables that to one extent or another McCollum can control. He can rely on his ball handling and a screen from his teammate to get him enough space, or a hard cut off the baseline to flare up and attack from there. For the most part CJ can put his defender on a string, particularly from out around the 3-point line.


One thing that’s outside his purview, how well a defender covers him. This is the NBA, no matter how good your handle, your wiggles, your shakes & bakes are, defenders are bound to catch up to you. How a player handles that can be a big difference in scoring by the end of the night. When you take a look at shooting data that figures in closest defender as 2 feet or closer (among players with at least 70 shots) McCollum comes out with the worst field goal percentage in the league, 31.9% overall and 8.3% from three-point range Now he only has 12 attempts from the 3 point line, and while 1-for-12 isn’t a sterling number it accounts for less than 5% of his total attempts. With all of that said, McCollum actually does a fantastic job of avoiding these situations altogether- hovering around 15% of the time. He’s right alongside fellow ankle breakers, Jamal Crawford, Monta Ellis, Kemba Walker and Lou Williams. All players known for having fantastic crossovers, hesitation moves, and fantastic step back jumpers. The big difference is that Crawford (42%), Ellis (52%), Walker (40%) and Williams (46%) all shoot substantially better in those situations. To put that in perspective, If McCollum were to shoot over 45% he would add more than .5 points per game to his total. The initial reaction to this number had me questioning a number of things, but most prudently, why is he so low? Height was the first thing that factored into my analysis, generously listed at 6’4” by NBA.com, however the next lowest on the list is the 6’9” Danilo Gallinari. Gallinari is a nice example to have right there, because unlike some of the bigs on the list that are struggling (Marc Gasol is at 36%?!) Gallo is a player who shoots from all over the floor, his shot distribution less consolidated it gives a good reference point to make one scratch their head. Also on this list are fellow small forwards Jeff Green (37%) and fellow Blazer Al-Farouq Aminu (39%). Strangely, Green and Aminu aren’t names you would normally associate with being bothered by defenders- they’re both long and athletic with relatively high releases (although Aminu does hold the ball to the side a bit), but at their size with their leaping ability, one might assume they could adjust a bit more. Maybe they are though? Maybe they’re adjusting from McCollum’s level and leveling out around 40%? Without more detailed data it’s hard to be concrete, but from the clips I’ve watched of all of these guys they seem to be bothered immensely by hard closing and physical defenders.


Here’s where the pitchforks come out. I’ve eased into this one a bit, because saying anything that could be construed as negative against McCollum is tantamount to treason in these parts. CJ is a fantastic shot creator and shot maker. I think most would agree on that sentiment. He has 2-3 plays per night where he sits his defender down with a hesitation dribble and ties him up with a change of direction crossover. Everyone in the crowd goes crazy. Champagne is popped and the basketball gods rejoice. As I’ve often said though, the basketball gods are extremely fickle. McCollum takes 21% of his field goals from inside 5 feet where he shoots 44.8%.That puts him just above Joakim Noah (41%) and rookie Emmanuel Mudiay (43.1%). For reference sake, league average from 5 feet and in is 58%. Why McCollum struggles inside is a bit of a mystery. Take a look at this clip here:





McCollum gets Courtney Lee on his heels with an in-and-out dribble and attacks as soon as he sees his advantage. Marc Gasol is too concerned with Meyers Leonard in the corner to offer help and McCollum goes to the Euro-step, bumps Lee back, clears space goes for the easy lay up aaaaaand…. Misses. Horribly. I’ve watched this clip a hundred times, and more like it, and I can’t find a reason for why he misses this so badly. The contact on the play is initiated by McCollum and at no point does he appear to be off balance. There’s no seven footer towering over him and Lee doesn’t exactly count for a rim protector

Here’s one of the others that I mentioned previously and it’s essentially the same situation:





McCollum hits the hesitation-in-and-out dribble combo, gets Donald Sloan off balance and attacks the rim, Thomas Robinson has his back turned and is being held by Ed Davis so he’s in no position to help, McCollum goes up fading away with his right hand on the left side and again misses badly. This time, Davis is there to clean up the miss with an easy put back.


One thing I’ve noticed in a variety of McCollum’s misses at the rim is that he’s not attacking the rim.





Here, he attacks the rim with a head of steam, sees Blake Griffin and instead of going at his chest to either power through or draw the foul he continues towards the baseline instead of to the rim. He ends up out of control and letting go of the shot below his waist off balance and misses badly, but yet again it’s cleaned up and put back. One thing to pull from this is that his teammates are aware and tend to follow McCollum in to clean up a miss on the other side.


I’m left to conclude a couple things. Namely, CJ may inherently struggle finishing inside. It may not be a natural gift that he has. Much like many in the NBA don’t have McCollum’s handle, there are those in the NBA that can’t finish at the rim like Rajon Rondo (61%). One thing that some have mentioned is that McCollum’s field goal percentage struggles because he may or may not get his shot blocked. This is true. In fact, of McCollum’s 123 missed shots inside of 8 feet, he has been blocked on 31% of them. Nearly a third of McCollum’s misses come from blocks. Some want to compare this phenomenon to Zach Randolph, because it’s convenient, and say that it’s not a big deal. Well McCollum isn’t 6’9” and one of the best natural rebounders in the game, capable of gathering a blocked shot and powering back up with it again and again until he’s able to score. To get an idea of where McCollum stood I took like sized players and checked their numbers against percentage of misses that stem from blocked shots.

Blocked% by Dan Marang posted Feb 2, 2016 at 10:58 AM

By looking at this chart, while McCollum does get his shot blocked more often, it’s not so staggeringly high that it accounts for the reason his field goal percentage is so low. It does factor in for certain but I feel it’s a smaller piece of puzzle and it feeds into something else that coincides with going to the rim. Drawing free throws.


Drawing free throws is an art. It’s a skill. No matter how you feel about it, numerous NBA players have said throughout the years that drawing fouls and by a measure free throws is a skill that not only players have innately, but one that can be bettered over time. Arguably the best shooter in NBA history has a thing or two to say about it here. With that in mind I wanted to highlight the rate at which CJ is able to generate free throws. For a great run down on free throw rate you can read all about it here; but the gist of it is this, a players free throw rate is a simple equation of FTA/FGA. Essentially, how many free throws are you generating per shot taken. I took 900 players since 1977 that have averaged 20 points per game or more and plotted them out by points per game and free throw rate.

CJFTrImage by Dan Marang posted Feb 2, 2016 at 11:02 AM

(You can go to the direct link and see how others stand up here) Tableau Link

At McCollum’s current rate he will finish with the lowest free throw rate in history. That’s a pretty ridiculous number. If you were to average those players out their free throw rate is at .376. To put into perspective how many more free throws McCollum would have if he were at that level, he would go from 124 attempts this season to 324. Two hundred more free throws at a make rate of 80.6% would turn into 261 made free throws, or 161 more made free throws so far this season- or to take it a step further an additional 3.5 points per game more. That’s all theory though- you can’t go back and change that. It’s a fun exercise to see how it would play out, but nothing more. The thing you can take away from this may factor back into McCollum’s troubles finishing at the rim- he doesn’t do well when defenders are tight, physical, or near him in any facet. When you’re around the rim, there’s going to be a lot of defenders, a lot of bodies, contact, and not much space. Some players have found ways to exploit that, hello James Harden!, and made it a huge part of their game. Among the 20 point per game (guards) scorers this season only Klay Thompson has a free throw rate below .270 (.193) and while he has historically not got to the line like McCollum this year, he over comes that deficit by shooting 66% inside 5 feet and over 43% from the three-point line. Really, if Thompson ever figures out how to draw free throws there’s no reason he couldn’t eventually lead the league in scoring. McCollum, while a great shooter has not yet demonstrated an ability to shoot so well all over the court as to compensate for his inability to finish inside nor draw free throws at a rate commensurate with a 20 point per game scorer.


Let’s get back to talking about what McCollum does well though. Put the torches and pitchforks down for a few minutes and bask in the goodness that is CJ McCollum’s midrange game. Of the players with at least 100 makes from 10-19 feet only Kevin Durant (50% on 127 makes) has made more with a higher percentage than McCollum (48% on 125 makes). When you’re up there with Durantula in any kind of shooting stats, you’re probably doing pretty well. Here’s a cornucopia of McCollum midrange awesomeness:








and who needs layups when you have midrange for daaaaaaaays…





As noted by Mike Richman in The Oregonian, CJ has stated how it’s tougher to finish inside and as such has developed a midrange game over the course of his basketball career.

“He's become a master of the mid-range and developed into one of the league's most lethal scorers in the often forgotten area between the lane and three-point line.

"It's been a part of my game for life. It's tougher to finish in the lane so you've got to find different areas to score efficiently and the mid-range contested shot is a shot a lot of teams will live with," McCollum says. "And it's a shot I'm willing to live with as well just because I've gotten so many shots at it and I'm comfortable with it."

That last part right there, “a shot I’m willing to live with…” I feel is telling considering what we’ve already profiled about McCollum’s problems in the paint and inability to draw free throws. However, what it also highlights is that he’s, “gotten so many shots at it and I'm comfortable with it.” That I feel is a nod towards not only his ability to take and make that shot, but also the fact that he has many ways to create space on his own to get that shot in the first place.





Here McCollum goes with the no set up crossover to pull up midrange jumper and-one on Ty Lawson. While Lawson hasn’t exactly been stellar this year, his speed alone allows him to stay with attacking players fairly well, and he just gets eaten up by McCollum in this instance.


One that is quickly becoming the McCollum special, splitting the trap/hedge/double in the screen game. This one in particular is made doubly better because it’s James Harden and his spectacular defense on display.





First of all, Lawson getting caught this solidly on a Moe Harkless screen speaks more about Lawson than it does Harkless, but credit also must be given to McCollum for setting up the angle. Then of course, there’s Harden. While not his worst, what exactly is he doing here? Finishing it off with the small push just puts a bow on your typical Harden defensive possession. But, back to McCollum. He splits the trap brilliantly, slides to about 10 feet, pulls up and the result is a predictable two points.


Because I want to do a larger piece on the Trail Blazers defense as a whole I’m not going to profile McCollum’s defense at this time. I’ve touched on it a few times and there’s really not a lot of ways that he comes out looking all that great. Instead I’m going to break down how McCollum rates offensively among his teammates and the NBA as a whole.


When Lillard went down with a plantar fascia injury in December, no one was really sure how the Blazers, particularly McCollum would fare without their leader. All McCollum did was go 26PPG, 6.5APG, 5.5RPG, 50% FG, and 40% 3FG, while sporting a 4-2 record between December 21st and January 3rd. How did he do it? The same way he does it every night. Running. Little known stat here, on any given night McCollum covers the 3rd most ground overall and the most ground on the offensive side of the ball. The guy doesn’t stop moving. Some of that stems from the pick and roll game where, as the ball handler, he rates 9th in scoring frequency and 8th in PPP. In isolation he rates 10th in scoring frequency and 7th in PPP, this is where you can really see how effective his handle is in helping him get to his spots. The only players who rate consistently better? Durant, Curry, Lillard, Crawford. As far as isolation players go that’s a Mt Rushmore of iso killers in today’s NBA. McCollum also rates near the top in the dribble hand off. Able to use the handoff man as a subtle screen while also moving and receiving the ball at the same time, McCollum is able to attack from multiple angles and keep his defender off balance.


While McCollum has a wide variety of ways to attack a defense he is sub par in a couple of areas. Coming off of screens, McCollum doesn’t stack up the way one might expect him to. Among qualified players McCollum has the 2nd worst field goal percentage. Something I found rather strange for a guy known for being such a great shooter. Another area he struggles is in transition. Although given what we’ve already discussed, maybe his inability to finish at the rim plays a part in this. It’s actually not just him that appears on the lower end of his list- Lillard and Aminu both show up well below league average here and that translates on a nightly basis as Portland is not a team you see racking up fast break and transition points on a nightly basis. Both of these are areas that one could expect to see growth in. The screen game seems like a natural fit to McCollum and perhaps he’s going through some growing pains there. That will be one that we’ll have to revisit at the end of the year to see if there’s any change there. The transition game is something that could be cleaned up, if he develops his abilities at and around the rim. McCollum leads the Blazers in steals per game so he can find himself in transition opportunities more than anyone else. Beyond being able to hit the transition three pointer, if he can become a consistent threat to finish at the rim in the open court it could do wonders for his game.


There’s still more to come on CJ- we’re barely into what amounts to his first season. There’s much to be added to his game on each side of the ball, but he’s already a fantastic score first guard capable of being a distributor, who also happens to have range out to 28 feet. Those kinds of players are tough to come by. However, there are some flaws in his game right now that are historically bad. If he is to become a legitimate star in this league and not say, Ben Gordon, he has to target and develop those. Finishing at the rim and generating free throws have to become a part of his game if he’s going to take a step to the next level. Either that or he has to become a force on the defensive end. Sure it would be amazing if all of the above came to fruition but major growth on one side or the other has to take place in order for the Blazers to take the next step. Lillard has done it over the course of a few season, McCollum probably has less time than that. But I’m willing to bet that he figures it out on one side or the other.


Pitchforks down. Torches put out. Go home everyone.

 

While I'm sure your post is well thought out with plenty of facts and figures,

TL/DR

It's huge!

 

Ok I skimmed it. Good info!

 

CJ McCollum is a BUM!

 

Critically analyze? Fine.

Anally criticize? Not so Fine.

 

I think another thing I'd add to the CJ bit is that this season, he's healthy...I'm wondering what the injury stat is for guard who drive to the rim in traffic. Iverson was a master at it but was wrapped up like the mummy after bouncing off guys like Shaq...CJ has been out for his first two years with injuries...is he airing on the side of caution and if so...is that a good thing?

 

That's something I'll touch on more in the podcast- but the short of it is in my belief- yes. That plays a part. It's hard to attribute that without fully knowing the man, but my suspicion is that it plays a part.

 

I haven't even read it yet (I plan to later today). It was merely a play on the words in the thread title, and in no way meant to be any sort of criticism of Dan's post.

 

no worries- I didn't take it as such.

However, I did do a quick search to make sure you were the only one who wrote anally on there lol.

 

that's what the podcast is for! As usual, I'll be recording with the guys tomorrow morning. Hope to have it up my midday.

 

I've been known to get to the bottom of an order of yellow curry with steamed rice in a pretty big hurry...

 

Are you saying an angry Mike Rice would face a cowardly Steph Curry?

 

So what you're saying is that CJ McCollum is the best NBA player in history at scoring 20+ points per game without relying on the refs to put him on the free throw line to do it?

That's fantastic!

Go CJ!

 

Exactly!

 

TBH that player is probably Klay Thompson. His FTr is only slightly above CJ's but he shoots so well from everywhere on the court that he may go down as one of the most efficient players in NBA history. For all the love that Steph gets, and deservedly so, Thompson is devastatingly good from everywhere on the floor- and he gets to the line at a .19 rate (CJ is at .14).

 

The TL/DR is that CJ is good at shooting but not so good at finishing at the rim or drawing fouls. Fairly straightforward.

 

Something I'm going to bring up on the podcast later today about CJ and finishing inside... I came across it when I was looking up some of CJ's splits- it's interesting to say the least.



With that in mind- I took a look at those games in particular and how CJ looked finishing at the rim.

In those 10 games, McCollum was 30-42, 71%!, inside of 5 feet. That's staggeringly good. That's better than even Klay Thompson's 67% rate so far this season.

However... if you pull that 30-42 from his season of 86-188, you're left with 56-146 on the season or 38% on the season. So, that basically says that when CJ is on- he's really on. When he's off? He's even worse than I originally expected. If you're glass half full, you're looking at this and seeing the potential to be a good finisher is there. If you're glass half empty you see a lack of consistency and 3/4 of his games where he's a way below average finisher inside.

 

Yes fairly straight forward for half a season.