Is Allen Crabbe the next breakout wing player? If it seems like every year there’s a wing player or two that have breakout years that’s because, well, there is. Here’s just a couple of names over the last few seasons that have seemingly come out of nowhere to have banner years; Jimmy Butler (30), Wes Matthews (UD), DeMarre Carroll (27), Chandler Parsons (38), Nic Batum (25), Danny Green (46), Jae Crowder (34), Khris Middleton (39), Kent Bazemore (UD) and Allen Crabbe (31). While some may debate the definition of a “breakout year” I’m coming at it from the angle of you didn’t expect this from player X, and I think it’s fair to say you don’t expect a players picked outside the top 25 to turn into all-stars, fringe all stars, high level starters, or very integral parts of a team- otherwise those players would be drafted a whole lot higher. I particularly wanted to highlight Kent Bazemore alongside Allen Crabbe because of what I saw and read across the forums, Twitter, and other media platforms when the Blazers played the Hawks last week. It could’ve been because he led the Hawks in scoring, hit clutch shot after clutch shot, and played good to great defense throughout the game but the common thread from Blazers fans seemed to be along the lines of “what do you think it would cost to land Kent Bazemore?” Go ahead and take minute to let that set in. I don’t mean this as a slight to Mister and Misses Bazemore, I’m sure their son is a swell human being, but Blazers fans are talking about what it would take, monetarily, to land Kent Bazemore? Let’s examine this for a minute. Coming out of college Bazemore was often labeled as a player with athletic upside and a vast set of skills, but most commonly a jack of all trades, master of none. The NBA chews those guys up and spits them out year after year. You can run through the last 10 NBA drafts and nearly every 2nd round player meets that description. What was different about Bazemore? He showed a bankable skill, the ability to hit the outside shot. While he only took slightly over 2 attempts per game in college, he was able to hit over 40% from 3pt range his junior year. After going undrafted and bouncing around from the D-League and the end of the Warriors bench, Bazemore landed in Atlanta last season behind another emerging wing- DeMarre Carroll. After biding his time last season Bazemore was given his opportunity to play alongside Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver and he’s delivered to the tune of 13 points, 4 assists, over 41% from 3pt, and solid to good defense on a nightly basis. I say all of this because you could pull out Bazemore’s name in pretty much every instance in this paragraph and replace it with Allen Crabbe and it would read nearly identical to the situation the young man from Cal has been through. While Crabbe wasn’t undrafted he was a non-guaranteed 2nd round pick. He’s spent the early part of his career in Portland at the end of the bench and bouncing back and forth from the D-League, unable to carve out a niche in the Blazers rotation due to a log jam at the 2/3 with veterans Nic Batum and Wes Matthews, also members of the breakout player club, and the team pushing forward with 50 win seasons which aren’t naturally conducive to grooming young 2nd round picks. This season however, Blazer fans have seen a different side of Crabbe. Building off a few spot starts last season Crabbe has grown in confidence, from seemingly none to breaking out of his shell (yeah I did it) and willing to take nearly any and every opportunity given to him on a nightly basis. Even the most die hard of Blazer fans didn’t see this coming. Heading into the season there was no calls for Crabbe to get more playing time. It was billed as the arrival of CJ McCollum and the emergence of Meyers Leonard, paired with the supernova-like glow that is Damian Lillard’s stardom. Heading into camp, it felt as most of Blazer nation were resigned to picking up Crabbe’s option and then wishing him the best of luck on his future after the season ended. Now there’s talk of rival GMs possibly targeting Crabbe as a player that gets overbid on just to make the Blazers make a hard choice on whether or not they’re overpaying based on the potential for return. To get an idea on what they return may or may not be, I wanted to see how Crabbe stood up against his peers on both sides of the ball. Interestingly enough, Crabbe in the past few seasons has often been thought of as a solid defensive presence, able to be slotted in as a spot starter that doesn’t need the ball and is willing to do the little things to stay out on the court. Contrast that with his scouting profile coming out of college, and his defensive potential was seen as somewhat lackluster due to a lower level of athleticism and the propensity to “switch off” from time to time due to a relaxed attitude. Now, lower level of athleticism in the NBA is a few bumps up from YMCA star, so suffice it to say I take that with a grain of salt, but the switching off seems like it may still carry some weight. In this instance: Crabbe gets caught ball watching and looses track of his man (Brandon Rush). Shut off for even a moment in this league and there are plenty of players that will make you pay. Crabbe cheats down off Gary Harris when Danilo Gallinari gets the switch on CJ McCollum and even though Plumee and Aminu have come down to help already, Crabbe also comes all the down and leaves his man (Harris) wide open in the weak side corner for another uncontested 3. I grabbed these two examples to highlight where Crabbe appears to struggle a bit, but also an area that I feel can be shored up pretty easily. According to NBA.com and their fantastic stats, Crabbe rates in the 58th percentile when it comes to Spot Up shooting defense- allowing 0.92 PPP (points per possession)- for comparisons sake, Kawhi Leonard & Al-Farouq Aminu both rate in the 73rd percentile at 0.86 PPP and Kent Bazemore rates poorly, coming in at 1.02 PPP allowed and a 38th percentile rating. On the other side of this equation is Crabbe’s elite level shooting ability. Coming out of college Crabbe had one absolutely certain skill- a smooth and pure jump shot. Joseph Shamouni at NBADraft.net had this to say about Crabbe: “A lethal spot-up shooter with terrific range … Text book shooting form. Displays a consistent stroke with excellent mechanics on his jumper, releasing the ball off his fingertips with great ease in one silky-smooth motion … Has outstanding footwork and generates proper elevation on his shot. Squares his shoulders and feet to the basket … Appears to have tremendous range on his 3-ball, and has shown the ability to drain it from the NBA-line with no hitch in his natural release.” Basically, if nothing else he could/can flat out shoot. While rebounding is a skill that unquestionably translates to the NBA, scoring is one that just flat out doesn’t (see: Fredette, Jimmer). What that doesn’t necessarily take into account is the ability to shoot. If you look around the NBA, benches are littered with guys whose sole purpose on that roster is the ability to knock down shots when called upon. Allen Crabbe can shoot. Very well. Crabbe is a career 38% 3 point shooter, and he’s right on par this season at… 38%. In his first 2 years in the league, Crabbe took 99 shots from deep. In 46 games this year he’s taken 172, good for nearly 4 per game. If you take that ability and pair it with Lillard’s and McCollum’s ability to get into the paint and draw additional attention and you have the capacity to make defenses pay on a regular basis. Crabbe hasn’t disappointed in that sense at all- currently 6th in league at 1.16 PPP in the Spot Up (min 100 att) Crabbe has been downright lethal on the kick out 3, a staple of the “Stottsfense.” Here’s a perfect example: The Lillard pick and roll will always draw attention- in this case it draws ALL of the attention of the Pelicans defense and neither Jrue Holiday or Tyreke Evans were able to recover to really contest Crabbe out at the 3 point line when Plumlee kicks it out to him. The result is like a refreshing cool breeze (yep, that’s twice) and an easy 3 points. One counter that Crabbe has developed is his ability to put it on the floor once or twice and hit the midrange pull up jumper which you can see him utilizing here: and here in different ways but to the same effect, buckets. One common theme that has been present over the last few player profiles is taking a look at wingspan. Allen Crabbe measured in at a solid 6’6” with a near 7’ wingspan. That’s quite crab like, if I’m being frank. With that kind of wingspan Crabbe has the ability to cover a lot of ground both on ball and in the passing lanes. To illustrate this point take a look at this clip where you can see Crabbe at his most engaged and a peek at the kind of defensive impact he can have. Here, Crabbe can be seen fighting through a screen, keeping his man in his view and then coming over to help, and forcing the pass, while at the same time getting a hand in the passing lane and tipping the pass. That right there, is a great sequence that has managed to disrupt the flow of the Jazz offense but it doesn’t stop there. Now, in man to man defense Crabbe again uses those long arms and pokes the ball loose and scoops it up to start the Blazers into transition. The Blazers are 27th in the league at 6.5 steals per game and only McCollum averages more than one steal per game, so any time they can create a turnover it’s a definite plus. Crabbe has shown a penchant for getting into passing lanes, especially in January- getting a hold of 15 steals in 10 games this month. Crabbe has shown the potential to be a player that could be a real pest on the defensive end and capable of generating 1-2 steals per night on a regular basis. What those steals cover up though is Crabbe’s isolation and pick and roll defense. According to NBA.com Crabbe is giving up 0.90 and 0.91 PPP in isolation and the pick and roll game. Those numbers are good enough for 37th and 22nd percentile (remember, low numbers are not good). If you go back to Crabbe’s scouting report coming out of college, there was mention of his ability to switch off on the defensive end and to an extent that seems to still be the case. While the Blazers’ overall defensive scheme can play a part in these outcomes, Crabbe rates worse than both Lillard and McCollum. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that neither CJ or Dame are names one would associate with stellar pick and roll coverage. Contrast this with what Bazemore has done on the season so far; while he’s been terrible in isolation giving up 1 PPP in what accounts for nearly 10% of his defensive possessions he’s been terrific in the pick and roll at 0.72 PPP 73rd percentile - right up there with John Wall, Paul George, and Kyle Lowry- all players renowned for their defensive ability- particularly in pick and roll coverage. Considering that accounts for nearly a third of his defensive interactions (measurable) that’s a substantial difference between Bazemore and Crabbe. Some of this can be attributed to each team’s defensive scheme, Atlanta is an aggressive team constantly putting pressure on the opposing team throughout the game. Forcing turnovers, bringing their athletic bigs out of the paint on the pick and roll, and trapping are all a part of their nightly defense and this bares out when you see that Milsap and Teague rate well across the board in the defensive metrics. Athleticism could also play a part here as Bazemore has always been seen as a “springy” player, capable of showing up in SportsCenter throwing down a breakaway tomahawk dunk, whereas Crabbe, while a solid athlete opts instead for a powerful dunk off of one foot. Speaking of transition play, we’re again going to highlight a strength of Allen Crabbe. Going back to his ability to generate steals, that can also directly contribute to his ability to get out in transition. Not only does Crabbe cause turnovers, he’s quite adept at turning those chances into points at the other end. Going back to that Utah game- it was a good one for Crabbe. Crabbe anticipates the kick out pass, positions himself to make a play, where he then seizes on a lazy pass by Neto, tips it out and gets out on the break where he finishes easily on the other end. While Crabbe isn’t on the level of former Blazer Nic Batum in the open court, there is a certain grace and fluidity to Crabbe that some of the best transition players seem to have. Something that another former Blazer Wes Matthews never really had- and it shows a bit of a contrast of Crabbe’s game to Matthews. Interestingly enough I noted earlier in the season Crabbe’s progression seemed eerily similar to the Ironman… On the surface their stats are pretty close to each other, however one thing to keep in mind is that Wesley was getting his minutes playing against starters and often alternating between Batum with the toughest perimeter threat on a nightly basis. Meanwhile, Crabbe is getting nearly half (49%- Nylon Calculus) of his minutes against bench units (bench unit, meaning 0-2 starters on the floor at a given time) By contrast, Bazemore is seeing only 29% of his minutes against bench units. I think it’s fair to say that you can draw a pretty good correlation between Matthews and Crabbe as Matthews was often the first off the floor and the first to return against bench units, however Bazemore gets the lions-share of his minutes against top flight competition all night long. One other thing to consider here is that Crabbe is getting substantially less minutes than Matthews was- at 26MPG to nearly 34MPG- and that when you look at per 36 numbers, Crabbe actually outperforms Wesley in quite a few areas. I would say it’s a fair assessment to that Crabbe has a more developed offensive game at this stage in his career than Matthews did at the same point. As an example if you take a look at Allen Crabbe’s shot chart this season you can see that he’s more than capable of hitting from all over the court. While his primary role is often that of spot up 3-point shooter he’s also very solid coming off a down pick and hitting a mid range jumper, as well as a side dribble pull-up jumper, and lately he’s added attacking the rim to a rather diverse repertoire. One look at Matthews’ shot chart and you see his primary usage on offense was that of corner 3 point shooter and floor spacer. He had not yet added a post up game, or the ability to hit off the flare screen, or even his incredibly reliable step back jumper. However, I would also say that Matthews had a firmer grasp of defensive principles and executed them on a nightly basis better than Crabbe does now. I specifically wanted to highlight these comparisons with Bazemore and Matthews because they are good points of reference for Blazers fans on a number of fronts. First, Bazemore was an interesting case that presents a parallel that Blazer fans may not have known existed, both statistically and going forward with their respective contract situations. Secondly, Matthews because Blazer fans know the growth process that he went through as he matured as a player- culminating in him going from undrafted free agent to a near max deal, even after a blown Achilles. That puts Allen Crabbe in a very interesting position. Much has been bade about Meyers Leonard and the Blazers failing to come to an agreement before the season started, while seemingly little was made when Crabbe didn’t reach an agreement. In the long run which of those moves could hurt the Blazers the most? As recently as May of last year nearly 25% of those that participated in the poll wouldn’t mind seeing Crabbe walk out the door heading into this season. This was before even picking up his option, let alone talking about a new deal to remain a Blazer. Given that the salary cap is due to explode to nearly $90m over the summer, eventually reaching upwards of $109m when all is said in done in a few years, what does a player like Allen Crabbe mean to a team? What does his skillset merit he be paid? If you look up and down NBA rosters with players who bring his skillset to the league- the players that I mentioned in the opening, the Danny Green’s, DeMarre Carroll’s, and Wes Matthews’ of the world- well, they’ve all been paid pretty handsomely. Matthews made his first payday at roughly 7m a season after just one season in Utah. DeMarre Carroll put up 12 points per game and shot 38% from 3, while playing good-great defense and got paid $60m over 4 years. I’ve already alluded to Matthews’ huge pay day with the Mavs, although there were some extenuating circumstances there, then you have Danny Green, who after playing lights out in the NBA Finals secured himself a $10m a year payday…all of these deals done BEFORE the cap exploded. If you think that Crabbe has the potential to fill the role of premier “3 & D” guy then it’s not unrealistic to see him commanding a deal anywhere between $12m-$15m per year. If the Blazers have anything working in their favor it’s that because of the exploding cap, players have positioned themselves so that their deals came up during this time frame in order to maximize their potential earnings. With that, there are a lot of wing players that will be out on the open market that may have bigger and brighter resumes attached to them such as: Nic Batum, Harrison Barnes, Chandler Parsons, Kent Bazemore, Luol Deng, Evan Turner, Jeff Green, Marvin Williams, DeMar DeRozan, Dewayne Wade, Gerald Green, Aaron Afflalo, JR Smith, Courtney Lee, Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo, Lance Stephenson, Randy Foye, and Evan Fournier. There’s more out there, but that’s the first group of players beyond Kevin Durant/Lebron James in as far as that they are “attainable.” You can argue the merits of signing a Lance Stephenson or Gerald Green vs. a Nic Batum or Harrison Barnes all you want, for this exercise I’m just saying the market is full of options and that will probably help facilitate the Blazers keeping Crabbe if they so choose. On top of the flooded market, Crabbe is a restricted free agent (RFA) so they have the ability to match any offer that’s put on the table. This is a double edged sword, it allows them to retain their guy if they choose, but it also opens the Blazers up to some revenge for the “poison-pill” deals that put on the table while Matthews was still in Utah and the deal they offered RFA Enes Kanter in the offseason that the OKC Thunder ended up matching. Ultimately I feel the Blazers will have a decision to make when it comes down to Crabbe and Meyers Leonard. Depending on how their respective seasons play out they could be faced with giving both players deals upwards of $10m per season. It’s plausible even that a rival executive could overbid for either one or both of their services and force the Blazers hand on either case. In today’s NBA the ability to knock down the 3 and play perimeter defense is at a premium. Considering the talent pool at the 2/3 position is pretty shallow as far as elite players are concerned, being able to lock up a young (Crabbe is still only 23) 3 & D stud on an affordable contract is probably one of the highest priorities for any franchise. An article written about Crabbe by Joseph Nardone back in December at Todaysfastbreak.com summed up Crabbe’s positional uniqueness quite nicely: “The best part of all of that, honestly, is the fact that “positions” in the NBA continue to have less and less meaning. Especially with the league going smaller, a player like Crabbe — who otherwise might be considered “too whatever” to be either a 2 or a 3 — can simply be another wing player who can shoot the rock.” So, what does Crabbe go for, besides $6.99 a pound (last one I promise)? I’d venture a guess that the remaining 36 games are huge for both the Blazers and Allen Crabbe as their mutual benefits could be made or broken in that time frame- and that by this time next season you won't see both Crabbe and Meyers Leonard on the roster.
Crabbe looked great in Summer League, which makes it doubly unfortunate that he got hurt. He had obviously worked on his shot. His shot has looked pretty good in past seasons but not actually gone in, whereas here it was going in. And particularly impressive is that that he was taking and making shots from a variety of places on the floor, including midrange and along the baseline, where previously I would have never expected him even to try. Crabbe will never look graceful - he doesn't "flow" or change gears smoothly, in the way that CJ does, and he will never be asked to play PG in a pinch (as gangly types like Tracy McGrady have been able to) because his handle is adequate at best. So the hope for him was always that he could be a poor man's Klay Thompson (in fact, before his draft, I asked on the board "who's this year's Klay Thompson?" and his name was the one given) - hit shots when Lillard is covered and play stifling defense. And he seems to be doing that. If it weren't for CJ, we'd be raving about him. He's good enough right now that he would start on some teams. Let's hope that he will progress to where he could start on a very good team. Still hate that hair and beard, though.
Game-wise I don't think he compares with Bazemore really: Bazemore has starred in Summer League, it's true, but he's more of a spectacular athlete and his focus is primarily defense and hustle, sometimes spectacular, and any offense is a bonus. Whereas Crabbe was drafted to be a shooter (somewhat in the Rip Hamilton mode, I thought) and the defense has come as a bonus. I think of Bazemore as more of a Trevor Ariza type.
RFA for Crabbe- they'll be able to match any offers. As for Bazemore- I never thought of him in that sense but his ability to knock down shots is without question at this point. He's come at things from a different angle than Crabbe or even Matthews but I think they arrived in the same basic niche.
Ah, thanks. It's kind of funny that Golden State had him and let him go. In fact, he won MVP for their Summer League team, didn't he? He's probably better than Harrison Barnes at this point.
I'd say Barnes is worth a bit more bc he can play 2-4 where I think Bazemore is limited to the 2/3 role. Both of them will be paid handsomely by my guess is that Barnes gets a max while Bazemore gets somewhere in the $12-14m range. He's a UFA so he might take the option that gets him paid and matches his professional goals.
Those numbers just depress me. I think I will need not to know how much Basketball players earn in the future.
If I had to guess, I'm going to say in the 11 million / per year range. If you compare him to Danny Green, I think he could easily get that kind of money.
Even with the cap rising? Green is already at 10m per year under the current cap... I figure there's at least 1 GM that throws the $14m offer out there when it's all said and done.
Maybe it's wishful thinking.... it's totally possible that someone will throw a bigger number at him due to the lack of shooting guards in the league right now and the popularity of the Golden State offense.
