Discussion in 'Golden State Warriors' started by .cabangbang, Apr 23, 2005.
Predict The Draft Picks
We probably have the number 9 and 39. Who do you pick?
I just want to say one thing as a disclaimer for my post: it's still too early to predict draft picks. The workouts results in May would help a lot to see who's considering who and how some players measure up to their hype. Additionally, I haven't head a good look at enough of the players so this analysis is crippled by a lack of research. Thus, with the level of instability, you'd pretty much have to list at least 5 or 6 guys for the 9th pick.
The latest mock draft (v3) here at JBB has us taking Aleksandrov. I posted earlier about him, but the skinny is that he's a high upside, high risk player. He's only 18 and he wants to leave Europe, as teams are using his age as leverage to get him into a long term contract. He's very athletic, has good shooting form, he's 6'11" - and as a bonus, is a very level-headed guy. But at 18, he's still very skinny and too passive, deferring to teammates often, and an injury during the season left him thinking that he might have to stay in Europe for a year or two because his development has slowed. If we took him, we'd likely let him stay.
If I were choosing for the Warriors though, I wouldn't take him. I'm assuming that at least these seven players are gone: Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Chris Paul, Raymond Felton, Gerald Green, Deron Williams and Martynas Andriuskevicius. If any one of them fell, I'd take them (except Williams, who I believe is the most likely out of the group to fall and despite being the best player available, I would only take with the intention to trade).
Guys I think the Warriors are looking at and that I'd draft to fill Warriors needs:
Tiago Splitter, 6'11, 236, 20 years old
Best big man available. Good big man skills, big body, can bang inside. Solid, "safe" pick for the Warriors' needs.
Fran Vasquez, 6'10", 229, 21 years old
Good athleticism. Good height. Good wingspan. Good enough for the 9th pick. Why Splitter over Vasquez? It's a tough call, but while Vasquez has better range, passing, and mobility, he's also a bit smaller and lacks the inside game that Splitter already has, thus making him a questionable gap for our lack of inside presence.
Danny Granger, 6'8", 225, 22 years old
As a rookie, he'll be a great role player and is ready to contribute immediately. Over his career, he'll develop into a good all-around player which will make him a good fit in most systems. The only problem is that on the Warriors, especially on the wing, everyone is a young player that needs minutes, and there just might not be enough minutes to go around unless a trade happens. (If he is taken, probably expect some kind of trade action.)
Shelden Williams, 6'9", 250, 21 years old
A smart kid who's an incredible shotblocker and rebounder, he somehow disappears on the offensive end. Is he the next coming of Adonal Foyle? I think he'll do better than that, I didn't mean to scare anyone. He's going back to Duke, but he's someone to keep tabs on next year when we're searching for a defensive forward/center.
Guy's the Warriors are thinking about drafting, but then realize they're too risky:
Nemanja Aleksandrov, 6'10", 210, 18 years old
Andrea Bargnani, 6'11", 225, 19 years old
After a lacklaster regular season, he stepped it up in the postseason. Fast for a big man, excellent range up all the way to the 3 point line, and a good shotblocker, the major problem is that he's not quite fast enough to guard the athletic NBA SF's and not strong enough or skilled enough to play in the post - thus the dreaded tweener label. Very similar to Alexandrov; both have been compared to Dirk Nowitski. Not sure if either can deliver to that kind of hype, but I think Bargnani is closer to Dirk because of his shooting ability, while Alexandrov reminds me more of Rashard Lewis - including the probable slow development.
Roko-Leni Ukic, 6'5", 185, 20 years old
Reminds me a lot of a foreign Shaun Livingston - could be a great player one day, but right now he's just a tall, skinny, fast player who's going to need time and bulk to succeed. He might not declare this year, but he's someone to keep in mind down the road. If he does declare, he might be available in the 2nd round.
For Granger and S Williams,current weights are about 10lb heavier. Ike Diogu lost about 10 lb from last seasons weight. As I see the W's as a running,transition,team,more depth will be a plus. A look at Grangers stats is pretty inspiring. Many expect Taft to go earlier as a Center-but Granger averaged more boards,more blocked shots,and played a bit of point g too. My #1 (9) would be Green-Diogu-Granger-Sheldon W.....depending on who remains. As Splitter is bigger and younger than Vasquez,he seems more apt to be a lottery guy,but I can't advocate a high rd 1 on anyone I never saw in a game...unless maybe there was a Yao clone. Rd 2,Julius Hodge is,like Granger,a very crafty,versatile player. Dwayne Jones,St Joes,6-11,declared and can be a great sleeper. Steven Smith,LaSalle is a Soph 6-9 f who had a real good year. If we don't get a power type Rd 1,Larry Roberts may be a steal in rd 2. We may have 2 rd 2 picks.
Well, if I were free to draft who I wanted the list would change up a bit, but this is trying my best to think what the Warriors are looking at. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure this is how their draft lines up since it is "predict who the Warriors draft."
For the 39th pick I think they will draft for talent. Hodge is a likely choice (and best choice) if available, as Rerem has already pointed out his all-around game and ability to play multiple positions. Maybe Louis Williams, a high school tweener guard, if he keeps his hand in the draft - considering Mullin took Zimmerman last year, this is not far off. Maybe Wayne Simien, Ryan Gomez, or Ronny Turiaf if they're available (all bangers)? Still too hard to pick out without doing a full draft examing who other teams are taking.
Hey Zhone those are good choices and we definitely need to think about needs in addition to getting best available player with the most upside.
Splitter would clearly be my #1 choice with all those other picks gone, because he's a big man that has more skills than most other big men his size don't have. He's long, athletic and has Pau Gasol (better defense, less range) written all over him.
-He gets up and down the floor fast
-Very active movement on both ends of the floor
-Will challenge people going to the rim if it's safe to give up positioning
-is agile and has solid footwork and post game
-used to be, but is not afraid of contact since he started playing power forward instead of small forward where he used to shoot from 20 feet out.
-can score with either hand
-Dangerous in the pick and roll
-has some ability to break down centers off the dribble (ballhandling)
-good team defender
-high basketball IQ, knows defensive positioning
-Made the Brazillian national team at age 17 (kind of like how Biedrins played against some more serious competition at a young age than some of our high schoolers)
-underweight and struggles against stronger players (well he is really young)
-mediocre rebounder (which can always improve based on getting/holding positioning)
-He shoots like Bobby Sura, good shot mechanics/streaky shot
-poor free throw shooter
-suspect midrange shot
Fran Vasquez I've seen and he doesn't do much besides play raw in that Marcus Camby type way. Block shots/Finish alley oops. He actually has less range, less defensive discipline, less polish on his other skills than Tiago. He looks impressive though.
Shelden Williams I like. I thought he was pretty underrated. He's kind of like Elton Brand sort of. And that would probably be my safe pick.
Granger, I just don't think we need another small forward/guard right now.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Zhone:</div><div class="quote_post">considering Mullin took Zimmerman last year, this is not far off</div>
Zimmerman was in the 03 draft with Pietrus and that was all St. Jean, not Mullin.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting upsidedownside7:</div><div class="quote_post">Zimmerman was in the 03 draft with Pietrus and that was all St. Jean, not Mullin.</div> Oh yeah that's right. Where the heck is he now? NBDL?
Good playmaker I heard, but he can't shoot and doesn't really blow anybody away.
Here's my second rounders
39th: I would go for Julius Hodge. He sounds like a great utility player that can take care of some point guard, play shooting guard, and some small forward spots. In the running game we have, we want some versatility and players able to create offense, get to the foul line or push the ball. Can he shoot 3's and make better decisions with the ball?
I do believe we have an extra 2nd rounder (second round pick via new jersey not from Phoenix). I'd try to look at Nate Robinson (5'9" combo guard that can dunk the ball and break down defenses), Aaron Miles (Kansas), Daniel Ewing (Duke), Lucas Tischer if he enters (Brazil).
I think David Lee, Rashaad Mccants, Louis Williams, Wayne Simien and Saleem Stoudamire will be long gone by the time we're up, but those players would be interesting in looking at.
We've probably seen some of Nate Robinson and Aaron Miles, but Tischer sounds intriguing as a second round international prospect. He's a fan favorite where he plays and he's compared to an Alonzo Mourning/Ben Wallace/Jeilani McCoy type defensive player.
Also I'd think the Warriors should take a look at shooting guard or combo guard Luther Head.
Oops, I meant to type Flores, not Zimmerman. Zimmerman was last sighted in the NBDL.
I think with this draft so short of NBA ready big men, who we get will definitely depend on what Milwaukee wants to do at #6 and Toronto wants to do at #7. I remember Toronto saved us by picking Rafael Araujo at #8 so we could get Andris Biedrins at #11 (3 picks away).
This is assuming NO TRADES OR SWAPS for cash
Atlanta has needs for the point guard, center, and power forward positions.
New Orleans has needs for small forward or point guard or possibly power forward.
Charlotte has needs for some scorers and could use a new point guard that can stretch defenses or a lights out scorer that can flat out shoot. This is where I can see Gerald Green getting picked high even though he doesn't really deserve to go that high.
At #4) Utah strictly needs a point guard. Without a reliable playmaker they freakin stink. Having a guy like Chris Paul or Raymond Felton, guys who can dish and score would be a plus. This all depends on what the Jazz plan to do and what Jerry Sloan plans to do. They can also go Deron Williams (Andre Miller like)/Jarrett Jack(Gary Payton like) (although its awfully high for him IMO)
Portland has enough forwards and they need a shooting guard that can shoot. If Green is still there they'll take him, but if not they'll grab a small forward that can shoot and have Darius Miles man the 2 guard position. They have enough forwards and centers and have a future starting point guard in Sebastian Telfair.
The Bucks virtually need everything and maybe something in case they don't get Michael Redd re-signed or if TJ Ford doesn't return (They still have Mo Williams who is decent). If TJ Ford is ready to go next season, they'll probably pass up on a point guard. They need a power forward, a true small forward, or a center assuming Michael Redd is re-signed. If he isn't, Desmond Mason will most likely man the two spot or Mason gets traded. So they need a small forward and one that can shoot from long distance. If there at #6 and they got nothing to lose anyway, I'd bet they'd go for a small forward similar to the players they've put on their roster (guys like Toni Kukoc or Keith Van Horn). They've got an Italian player (Andrea Barganani) that is sort of like Dirk Nowitzki and they have Aleksandrov who is supposed to be an athletic Peja Stojakavic. If they want somebody they know can truly play small forward and has great potential, I'd bet they'd go for Martell Webster if he declares.
They might not go for power forward because either way Webster can play shooting guard or small forward which helps the team if Redd doesn't return, and they have Joe Smith who is serviceable and Zaur Pachulia might re-sign for cheap. But if they think Tiago Splitter or Chris Taft is the best available player, they'll go for those picks and maybe try to flaunt some cash around to maybe land Ray Allen back (yeah right)? They need a 3 point shooter and Desmond "The Cowboy" Mason doesn't do that at two guard and they need a reliable ballhandler (Also so doesn't do). So I'm guessing not power forward.
Toronto already has Chris Bosh so they don't need a forward/center and they drafted Rafael Araujo last year for center. What this team needs is some chemistry and some leadership. When Jalen Rose is your team's leader... yikes... I guess they'll go for broke. They've spent money on Skip-to-my-lou at starting point guard who has been a headcase. They've got oft injured Alvin Williams still under contract... They've got seldom used Aaron Williams who is serviceable at either forward spot. They've got Mo Pete who is a good role player at either guard or forward and Jalen Rose at guard/forward and finally Lamond Murray who sees some limited action. Frankly, GM Rob Babcock puzzles the hell out of me. So I probably will not get his picks right. But I'm thinking he'll go for Raymond Felton. He can be an exciting player (that can shoot and dunk) and he's probably ready now. Gerald Green and Martwell Webster are long gone I'm assuming. They could also swing and take Splitter, Vasquez, or Chris Taft since these are guys that could play center (Splitter and Taft are the guys with post game).
Knicks will probably go for Fran Vasquez, Chris Taft or Splitter. The guy who is most center like is probably either Vasquez or Chris Taft as Splitter is more like a small forward/power forward with no range. I'm betting they will go for Vasquez because he can finish alley oops, block shots and run the floor. They've already have a solid draft in getting Mike Sweetney for low post presence at power forward. They could also look at some small forwards that play like guards, so if Martell Webster or Gerald Green fall they could be a Knick. Like Babcock, Isiah Thomas also puzzles me as a GM... He could very well draft another point guard so Stephon Marbury can play shooting guard and Jamaal Crawford at small forward. Zeke's 3-guard system would be reality! Or he could find a point forward like Charlie Villaneuva whose hometown is Brooklyn.
At #9.) Depending on who is left I could see us taking either Chris Taft or Tiago Splitter or a player with post game. Although Foyle/Murphy/Biedrins could alternate between power forward/center none of them have much offensive game in the post. Also it is most likely not another small forward unless we picked somebody with superstar potential (Dunleavy, Pietrus, Zarko, Richarsdon). At point guard we could get somebody in case Baron was really screwed over with an injury, but our #9 pick would be a backup rather than a future starter because of Baron Davis. So I see us trying to take whoever has post game, can score, can run the floor and defend and has the potential to start somewhere down the road. We'll probably trade the #9 if we can't use it and somebody can.
So Zimmerman is in the NBDL, thanks. Hey Zhone do you have clips of Aleksandrov? I thought he was an athletic Peja Stojakavic because he couldn't handle the ball like Rashard can. I know he could flat out shoot and move well off the ball, though.
Unfortunately, I can't find the clip that my friend sent me at the moment. It's a year old or more now, but it actually shows Aleksandrov on the break, breaking down two defenders and laying it in. I think that his handles are just as good, or at least the potential is there. Being tall, he has to protect the ball, but I think he has pretty good handles; I just wouldn't think he could do it in a half court set, but I mean, no big men that I can think of can in the NBA, either.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Zhone:</div><div class="quote_post">Unfortunately, I can't find the clip that my friend sent me at the moment. It's a year old or more now, but it actually shows Aleksandrov on the break, breaking down two defenders and laying it in. I think that his handles are just as good, or at least the potential is there. Being tall, he has to protect the ball, but I think he has pretty good handles; I just wouldn't think he could do it in a half court set, but I mean, no big men that I can think of can in the NBA, either.</div> Ah gotcha. Rashard's all right, but it took him long enough to start playing up to his hype after he got re-signed (High schoolers what do you expect ). Like Cliff Robinson/Nick Van Exel, he was a a second rounder, but he didn't get consistent until much later as he physically matured. At small forward, you probably need a guy like Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony or any other 6'8 230-240 lb guy that can play some shooting guard to be the most effective right away because they have full grown men's body right out of high school or freshman year college. But how often do those guys come along with that quickness, blend of strength and athleticism and scoring ability? The tall tweener type forwards don't really develop until much later when they learn how to use their strength and size to their advantage. Dirk Nowitzki, initially labeled a small forward, he's probably playing more power forward now than he has small forward because of his center-like qualities and the fact he wouldn't be able to play defense against the smaller quicker guys.
warriors have the clippers second round pick via new jersey in the cliffy trade.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Map1986:</div><div class="quote_post">warriors have the clippers second round pick via new jersey in the cliffy trade.</div>
Oh yeah, Thanks.
I think Vasquez is getting overrated in general. Nothing indicates he can play C in the NBA,He is 21,about the age of many US college guys. He's around 6-10,but 225 makes him a lightweight even next to Channing Frye. A big man has to get rebounds. I don't see where most of these guys are real rebounders. Splitter MIGHT be a decent prospect,based on he is younger + bigger--
By the time he's Vasquez age he might be pretty good. Taft is a guy who is still benefitting from expectations based on what he was in HS. After 2 yrs at Pitt he has produced like an early round 2 pick,and that's being generous. Mentally quick guys instantly make a good move,react right,get creative on the fly. Others seem to be cruising,or undeveloped,but they just don't process as fast. A guy 7-2 can make it with a slower deliberate game,not a 6-10 guy. At best,Taft is a part time PF/C. At worst,a bust who in 5 yrs will be out of the league. S May,while not your prototype look,could be a better C,and,slimmed a bit will be a solid F. Worst case,he puts on weight and is a backup pf. S Williams is a sure thing when it comes to boards and D,plus he has a good inside game on offense and nice mobility. May and Williams do have fast mental reaction,as well as playing at max effort. I am just baffled that anyone who saw them,and Taft play,would lean toward Taft. The Knicks are real hungry for a C. They may grab Taft,Splitter,Andri--- or,play it safe and take Frye or even May.
We have Foyle,Biedrens,plus a pair of 6-11 guys with game in Murphy and Zarko. We don't need to reach for project types who are not close to being decent backups. Missing out on a good player,a guy who IS ripe,and maybe getting someone who is basically,the next Shika,costs us $ when that is an issue,is untradable-that's what I fear. Getting "lucky" is not a Warrior's tendency. We got lucky with Pietrus,and maybe Biedrens,we can't be sure to get lucky again.
I suggested Diogu,Granger as Dunleavy's future is unclear. We might be pinched,moneywise,as other posts have suggested. That could make trading Dunleavy more likely. Potentially we may need backcourt depth,If Pietrus wins a starter role at SF,which could easily happen,2G depth is a bit thin.
Since we CAN get guys who are strong on D,rebounds,can play 2-3 positions,score-and have proved they are for real,I'd hope that's the path Mully takes.
Yeah, Rerem, I agree, but not even the safe picks are guaranteed successes if the draft is considered very weak years from now. Look at the 2000 draft.
Ouch! They are good solid players though, but nothing Lottery IMO.
And I don't think Fran Vasquez will be a good rebounder because it looks as if he's constantly trying to do too much, but Splitter could even though he's not a good rebounder right now. He gets outmuscled constantly, but he's got this huge potential about him as a project power forward. The video clips made him look score so easily but he was playing against some pretty crappy defense. Still he's young, he's smart, he's athletic, he's tall, and has good touch around the basket. The perfect project to get without screwing up the 8 man rotation. Plus if someone gets hurt we can see what he can do if his stock falls enough to grab him up. Andris Biedrins went as high as the #5 in some mock drafts and we're luckly we grabbed him at #11 due the other teams' needs and Toronto grabbing Rafael Araujo.
Chris Taft just scares me. All the tools to dominate, but there's some scouts question his motivation. He could be like a Kwame Brown or Erick Dampier part II, which isn't good. Or the guy could be the next Amare Stoudamire. Misunderstood. I remember scouts said that Amare was kind of lazy and half assed. But he turned out to be a pretty good player in that raw, ferocious way. Has Taft ever played ferociously? Actually the comparrision is supposed to be that he's more like Chris Wilcox and that's sometimes is and isn't a good thing. Or maybe there is no comparrison at all and it's just labels people give out to summarize in a nutshell what their game is all about without having watched them individually in workouts and in different team offenses. Maybe Taft isn't being used right.
When I saw Amare in an all star game,he was quick,high energy,very active,similar to how May looked in the playoffs,but quicker in the open. Basically he looked real good. Amare may have slacked in practice-or some scouts may have been using rumors to keep their shot at him better.
Kwame Brown,before he packed on weight,showed some speed in the open,but didn't use it to much advantage. If you saw Warrick,he'd blow by guys,like Pietrus,he uses his speed. Kwame didn't. Now he's about 270,a backup C,and he's not using that bulk well either. If we had him,he'd be behind Foyle and Biedrens.
Even Jordan was unable to get Kwame to hustle. All the physical tools in the world need to have skills and motivation to steer them. Very often that is a huge difference. Chris Washburn and Hakim Olajuwon had very similar physical assets when they came to the NBA. Washburn was a fool,a slacker,had a lazy streak. Olajuwon learned a new skill every week it seemed. Hakim had charachter,intelligence,a great work ethic,fast reflexes-Washburn was the opposite. Despite nearly the same physical gifts-one was soon getting dumped by CBA teams,the other was enroute to the hall of fame. Taft isn't way off on Washburn's end of the spectrum-but is a bit too far to that side. I like guys on the other end of the scale-like Hakim.
A lot of the issues with Amare were that he'd changed high schools a lot,and his intensity made him kind of difficult-but he wanted to be what he became,and that was behind a lot of that
I totally forgot about the 42nd pick. A lot of the players already mentioned are worth a shot at 42, so I'll just focus on a few other names to look for.
With one of the picks, if he's available, I'd take Mickael Gelabale, a French forward playing abroad. I just saw a tape of him at a friends' house and was very impressed. Reading around from other websites, he's riding some late buzz, probably due to his recent play, and probably will be taken before our pick. Athletically he reminds me of Pietrus, but mentally, he's the exact opposite - very cool, under control, only takes good shots, few turnovers, etc. Just like the "quality role player" aspect I see in Granger, Hodges, and others, I see him Gelabale. Also, as a bonus, he can probably continue playing with Real Madrid for a year for seasoning and keep getting playing time there without having to battle for a shot to play.
Here's a few links for Gelabale, #15 (he's got a dred/fro thing going on):
Clips thanks to http://www.acb.com
*Gelabale in the first scenes two blocking some shots
*Gelabale around the basket
*Gelabale in the first two scenes with the hops
*Gelabale posterizing more poor Euros
*Gelabale finishes on the break
*Gelabale on ACB's Top 5 plays (it's the #1 play, the last one)
Another guy I recently got a chance to review is Linus Kleiza, a sophomore forward from Missouri. He reminded me alot of a player but it didn't hit me until I started typing this post - he's totally a Lithuanian Najera. Hustling everywhere, really tough, always boxing out, making shots all over the place, and the same height, he just is an entertaining kind of player to watch. He's got bad shot selection, but it wasn't like he had teammates to step up, either. He's likely to be available with one of our picks.
Finally, I wanted to turn the spotlight on is Mindaugus Katelynus. I wouldn't have even looked at him if it wasn't for Draftcity's Portsmouth reviews on this guy, but boy, he's another athletic freak who plays like his life depended on it. I guess I just like those guys because they're so fun to watch. Anyway, he's another Lithuanian, although he played at UT Chattanooga for two years. He won the 2005 NCAA dunk contest as well. He might only pan out to only a Darvin Ham type - but he certainly has potential to be more.
Hodge almost got NC St a win over N Car,then was a big factor as NC St knocked off U Conn. Just consider all the lottery types on UNC,U Conn's roster-and Hodge seems a steal if a rd 2. Check out the stats for Dwayne Jones-St Joes,Steven Smith,LaSalle. If you want better D-Jason Maxiel,Eddie Basden,are quite tough. Filliberto Rivera,UTEP,was just about as productive as the lottery point G's. Faifield's Deng Gai,a 6-9 f,was among the NCAA top shotblockers,and rebounds too. Katelynus is interesting,came on well this year. Gelebale is pretty thin for the NBA,he'd need to add bulk-but not lose any quickness. Another 2 G only works if Pitrus wins the SF role,Dunleavy is dealt,or it's a guy able to play PG or SF too. I never saw Kleiza play-so no idea yet.
Yeah, I'm begining to think that the guys I mentioned earlier aren't going to be available, i.e. Hodge. I like Maxiell, even though he's really a small center (6'7"), he does have a good wingspan and can bang alot. In the end, 2nd round picks rarely make it in the league or really end up as roleplayers at best so it's harder to find any decent help. Thus, I don't think the Warriors will be looking for needs either in the second round. So, even though all of the players I mentioned don't really fit into the Warriors rotation, it's always nice to have that "hustle" 12th man or IR practice guy who can surprise you sometime. Thus, that's what I thinking that the Warriors might be after with those picks (to replace the Custodian / Najera player no longer on the team - and both also pretty successful 2nd round picks in my opinion).
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