Prediction time, prediction time, time to make your prediction time

I predict 42-44 wins if we continue to play like how we played against SA and Cleveland.

 

I was going to say 45 wins, but Tyrus being out means they are suddenly thin up front with really only one PF until James Johnson gets his head out of the clouds. They are going to be forced to go small a lot with Deng at the PF. The circus trip might have a couple of winnable games in Sacramento and Milwaukee. But they could easily go 2-8 over the rest of the month. If nobody else gets hurt then I'll stick with 45.

 

Whats exactly wrong with Johnson?

 

If Derrick Rose ever wakes up and Joakim Noah keeps playing the way he is: 48 wins.

 

I'm going to predict 42-45 wins, and 50 within reach if everyone stays relatively healthy.

Yep, I had some Kool-Aid for breakfast. Here's why:

* My early season concern for Rose is fading. It was an open question to me whether he was playing on a bad ankle that'd get worse, or if he was over the ankle and just needed to round into form. Well, his last three to four games he's been jumping better and looking progressively quicker and more aggressive.

* Lou is playing a lot like he did his first couple of seasons. The obvious thing to attribute this to is him being truly healthy for the first time in two years. I also think, compared to last year, the Bulls have made some nice adjustments to how they play him. Last year, Vinnie had virtually no structure to the offense and that killed Deng. He scores by his mid range game, and by taking advantage of slower players. He needs to be set up. This year, they're working to create him shots, and they're working to match him up against bigger and slower players instead of smaller quicker players. This works defensively too, as Deng works best defensively using his (relative) speed and his length to hound fairly strong players (e.g. Melo, Lebron) and scoot in to grab rebounds (which he has a real knack for, and that's wasted when he's too far from the basket). I've said it for a long time, but the David West example is a good one. Deng is very much like West, albeit a bit smaller, and is best used, much of the time, as a 4. We're finally using him that way instead of pushing him further out on the perimeter. The possibility of injury still seems like a big concern to me, and for that reason I'd still consider a Deng trade if we found something that made decent sense, but from an on-court perspective, he's got it going on again, we're using him exactly how he should be used. Finally... for the first time in a few years.

* Noah is playing like a maniac. He's built up a lot of strength without losing much in the way of quickness, and that's combined with his natural instincts to make perhaps the league's best rebounder and an incredibly smart player (when he's focused and doesn't let his emotions get the better of him). Offensively he's still not good, but he's grown into "not a liability".

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The rest of the team is pretty secondary to this. I don't really want to focus on Tyrus vs. Taj because I think it's a little secondary to what's actually happening. I think Tyrus has played pretty well, and certainly better than Taj, but he's out for a month with injury, so the debate is sort of OBE. I think Taj has been barely adequate in absolute terms, but that's a relatively good result to get from a rookie (even a 44 year old rookie), and I don't see him as a sucking chest wound on team defense the way, for example, Aaron Gray was at this time last year.

Defensively Kirk has been outstanding. Offensively, he's sort of a trainwreck. I see Salmons as pretty blah on both ends. He's been decent defensively, but in most circumstances I'd prefer Kirk. Offensively he's a fairly poor fit, but he's capable of providing a variety of scoring options, which Kirk is not at this point.

Pargo has helped in one game and hurt in every other one. James Johnson is gives me flashbacks to the Marcus Fizer era. I'm so far very not encouraged.

Team Goals

Looking down the road, I see success for this team to be as good as possible this season in order to potentially attract a free agent. Making the playoffs is a necessity, and looking good throughout is certainly preferable. Anything that furthers that goal helps.

The other necessity is to have enough cap space for next year. The central problem for the Bulls is this need is at odds with the "sucess" goal. You can't dump a decent player for just expiring contracts. The expiring contracts have to be attached to a player who can contribute something while playing out the string.

Team Questions

1. What do we do with Luol? The question here is his long-run health. He's had two injury prone seasons, and an expensive uninsured contract. You can only trade him when he's playing well, but when he's playing well he gives you pause about trading him because he's a very good player when healthy and properly utilized.

I think for this year, we have to not trade him unless an obvious, no-brainer sort of deal comes along, because our basic need (as outlined above) is to be an attractive destination. But we shouldn't be averse to considering it if we think we can get by.

2. Can we generate enough offense to win consistently. The biggest issue is this team can't shoot from distance very well. We're clunking a bunch of open shots a good and competent shooter would make.

3. Can we get over the Tyrus tom-foolery when he gets healthy again. To my eyes, he's played good defense this year, and been solid all-around. He hasn't been the disinterested, insecure, and brain-dead looking guy who got down on himself and tuned out in previous years. At least outwardly. However, it's obvious the coaches don't have any trust in him, and the rest of the team is rolling along pretty well, especially in the area of rebounding, interior defense and shot-blocking that he brings. I like Deng getting some minutes at his position, and I'm comfortable with Noah playing there next to Miller also. And Tyrus still sees himself as a SF, which is also a problem for a team that sees him differently. And oh yeah, his contract status and next year's priorities make him unlikely to be here next year. All in all, I see how Tyrus works on paper, but whenever we talk about reality, Tyrus is on one page of paper and the Bulls seem to be on another. If that can't be resolved, can it at least be productively papered over during the season.

 

One thing to keep in mind: when a team rebounds as well as the bulls seem to be doing, especially offensively, a brick off of the front of the rim is actually a pretty good pass into the paint as long as guys are expecting the shot. Noah is a much better tipper than post player. And Noah's rebounding numbers wouldn't be nearly as good if the bulls were shooting a higher percentage.

Conversely, if they stop rebounding, they are going to start losing a lot of games.

 

Concern... growing. 11 points in the 4th quarter. 18 in the 3rd. Talk about running out of gas. Shit.

 

Being the glass half full guy that I am, I will point out that they were still leading with about 5 and a half minutes to play. But I guess I also have to acknowledge they scored 1 point in the final 6 minutes. The most back to backs thing might be the bulls' achilles heel. They definitely hit a wall because they had a good lead and were in control in the third quarter.

 

I'm surprised Cory Benjamin is in A league at all. I looked at the current roster page (I think) and he wasn't on it, so maybe he's not.

 

This critique sort of agrees with my worries for the team as well.

One thing that concerns me is that the John Salmons we're seeing right now is not one that's in a slump, but one that's being asked to be a primary option on offense when he's just not that good.

I actually don't worry about Rose that much. He's been a bit off this year, but he seems to have had a good summer, so I would guess he'd round into form sometime this year.