I know confidence and psyche play a big roll in this game. But as a long time Blazer fan now, it seems like over the years, when our team gets a little rattled, they really let it sink into their head, affecting their game. More so than the other "good" teams out there. Why would that be? Is it just me, being frustrated with the current losing skid, or do others see this? It's one thing to have some up and downs, but it really seems like all of the air has been sucked out of us. What gives? I would hate it for this year to mirror last year, where we just go on a huge slide. I don't want Barkley and all of the other critics to be right!
Some of the other 'good' teams have had experience with those results for over a longer period of time or in the playoffs. The Blazers have no such experience to draw on so are more prevalent to having that confidence dented. As for Barkley, I wish people would let it go with him. What he is saying is historically very accurate. Jump shooting teams for the majority of examples don't do well in the playoffs. You have to be able to create shots, get to the basket and play good defense. The Blazers don't create their own shots well but do a good job of creating shots from ball movement. The majority of their shots are from the outside and they don't play defense well enough to make up for the nights when inevitably their outside shot is off. They also don't have a bench to come in and contribute to pick up the starters if they are off their game. It was a tremendous start but they were way over their skis in terms of record and while I expect them to play better with some rest, they are not a top-3 team like their record indicated for a good stretch. That is not being a hater, just simple reality. They are way ahead of what most of us thought they would be at this point and as from the beginning of the hot start, I hope they can secure HCA for a playoff series.
I think its just you. The team has played hard in games when they were down big as in the Minnesota loss. They've won when giving up big leads in Toronto. They've won more then their fair share of close games. Teams aren't going to win all of them and they won't play great all year long. If anything I'd argue the opposite, this team has been very mentally strong all year even in the losses.
First of all, welcome to the board. I'll bet you've been lurking a while and finally decided to jump in. Good to have you here. I think there are a number of things you have to consider when looking at the Blazers' slide in the last 10 or so games. First and foremost, the competition is tougher now that we're mainly playing Western Conference teams instead of the East patsies we beat up on earlier. Second, the Blazers' edge on offense has been predicated on being able to outscore the competition by making a lot of 3 point jumpers. The schedule has been compressed lately and there's been a lot of travel. Tired legs equal more missed jumpers. Third, teams have adjusted their defenses and are making the decision to let LMA get his points in primarily single coverage but to pressure the perimeter and deny the Blazers the open jumpers that they've thrived on. Fourth, the defense is terrible right now, primarily due to the fact that it was never that good to begin with, but is now being impacted by tired legs and the ankle and finger injuries to Batum. Fifth, the compressed schedule has removed any time for practice and it shows. The schedule will open up a bit next month, Batum will heal, the team will get more practice and will add some new stuff to compensate for what defenders are doing, and tired legs will get some rest. The disastrous finish to last season was attributable to injuries to core players and a total lack of depth. Barring major injuries, I don't see it happening again. The record won't sustain what was done in the fall simply because the teams are tougher now, but the Blazers should still manage to win 50-55 games and will be in decent shape for the playoffs.
I don't agree with much of what you say. LaMarcus has the best low post scoring moves for a big man in the league. Lopez is a double digit scorer inside. The Blazers are ranked 8th in three point attempts taking them on 28.3% of their possessions, nearly idential to Miami. Yes 7 teams shoot 3 pointers more often than the Blazers. Miami and the Spurs shot a ton of jumpers last year on their way to the finals. The key is getting open jumpers, and quality shot attempts. This team is far and away the number one ranked offense. This team has a lot of concerns defensively, but offense inside, in the mid range or from three point range is not the problem.
No problem with the disagreement but please don't compare Portland to the Spurs and the Heat. Tony Parker has made a career of getting into the paint and scoring and the team has done so at a very high level over a long period of time. Same with the Heat. They get inside, score and get to the FT line much more than Portland which then opens up their outside shots. Sure LaMarcus can score in the post but he is much more of a perimeter oriented player and needs someone to get him the ball to set up his shot where a perimeter big like Dirk in his prime had much more of a handle to create his own shot off of more than one dribble. It's about balance and the Blazers just don't have much on the inside against some of the more quality teams. That is partly their personnel and partly the offense the Stotts brought from Dallas but in Dallas they had a lot more players who could handle, penetrate and create.
I don't agree that we're far and away the number one ranked offense. I guess it depends on how you define "best offense". To me, in order to have the best offense you have to hit the highest percentage of shots in the league. Raw offense is measured by your ability to put the ball through the hoop while being defended. It takes FTM and shot location (2-point vs 3-point) out of the equation, and measures your success at playing basketball - not the bullshit James-Harden-Free-Throw-Game. I know some people like to reference abstract "advanced" stats, because they paint a picture they like. But IMO FG% is the best measure of a team's offense, and OppFG% is the best measure of a team's defense. Our FG% ranks at #14. And if you want AFG%, then we bump up to #10 due to our ability to hit 3-pointers earlier in the season. Either way, not the best: http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/offense-per-game/sort/fieldGoalPct
Wes was asked this last night. His response: On Confidence After Rough Patch: “We’re fine. We know we weren’t going to go undefeated this season. We knew we were going to lose games. It’s just our job to minimize the losses, stop the bleeding and get back to our winning ways.” Are You Concerned About Team After Tough 6 Game Stretch?: “This is a rough part of our schedule right now. 8 games in 12 nights, or something like that. It’s going to happen. We’ve just got to stop the skid, stop the bleeding. We’re a confident group. We know what we can do. We know we can beat teams. If we come with the right mentality defensively, everything will work itself out.” MORE QUOTES
This is just a classic case of a team that is tired and where the All-Star break cant come soon enough
Problem with your metric is it ignores turnovers, offensive rebounding, and FT%. Those are a big component of us having the highest offensive efficiency. Using your metric we'd have a solid defense since our FG% defense is better than average. That is misleading too since we force the fewest turnovers in the league and are below average at defensive rebounding.
This. Nothing more, nothing less. The Warriors just lost to the Wizards at home last night. It happens. When you have 82 games in less than six months, you get stretches like the one we're going through. I expected a stretch like this around the halfway mark. Good to get it out of the way now and peak come spring time.
I see what Gretta is talking about. I guess when you play for a crowd like Portland - where they are invested emotionally more than other teams, the players feel like they let them down a bit more when they don't succeed. Just one of the small things adding up to affect the team at the moment. Some of it also comes from the clear preferential treatment from the refs. This is whats up with Dame at the moment IMO. He busts his ass to get into the paint and to the line - draws contact and . . . no call. In all my years watching bball I've never seen a guy hit the floor so much and get so little calls. Then to top it off he gets called for a ticky-tack call on the other end. That's got to be demoralizing - even for a guy with as much moxy as Dame. Combine this with the ridiculous scheduling, and the resulting fatigue and lack of practice, and you have a recipe for disaster.
As I said, it depends on how you define offense. I prefer to look at what I feel is the purest measure - ability to put the ball through the hoop. I understand that FT, offensive rebounds, and turnovers all factor into the W/L record - but they are merely a result of playing the game, not part of a designed play. Being good on offensive put-backs is GREAT, but I don't feel that it should factor into offensive ranking because it essentially only results from initial failure to put the ball in the basket. The only thing I feel that's left out that I feel is important to my definition of offense is turnovers. I suppose it'd be easy enough (but too tedious to actually do) to add the number of turnovers to the number of FGA - that would probably be my ideal measure for offense. I just don't agree that we are the best offensive team in the league - not by a long shot. But I also don't really care about being the best in any statistical category, I'd just like us to be good-to-great in all of them regardless of ranking. Regarding defense, by my preferred measure, we are #19...which does seem a little high but is certainly not better than average: http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/defense-per-game/sort/fieldGoalPctOpponent
Agree with e_blazer and WillG. West Coast teams have more fatigue factor because they cover a lot more miles than East/Midwest/Southeast teams. I bet Nic is not the only one with a nagging injury. Funny, if going into the season someone had said the Blazers would be the #4 seed, most folks would call that person delusional. Team was considered 7-8 at best. Shows how our expectations have risen.
Maybe nationally. But here it seemed like most people thought ~8th was a worst-case estimate and ~4th a best-case. But yes, early-season success certainly increased expectations. Looks like we should fall back to our pre-season expectations though...hopefully the best-case scenario.
