Quick Q&A: Collins could return before playoffs

https://theathletic.com/2459252/202...llins-and-the-fate-of-stotts-blazers-mailbag/

Highlights:



Okay, okay, okay … LaMarcus Aldridge, PJ Tucker, or DeMarcus Cousins? Who heals what ails the team most? —Tanner R.

LaMarcus Aldridge … but only if San Antonio buys out his contract.

Remember two factors with the Blazers as they head toward the deadline: finances and fit.

The most desirable way for the Blazers to improve is through the buyout market because it will be cheap and it doesn’t require sending out an asset. The Blazers have one open roster spot and are $1.8 million under the luxury tax. They desperately do not want to go over to avoid the repeater tax (they are likely to go over next season, when Damian Lillard‘s salary jumps from $31 million to $43 million and C.J. McCollum from $29 million to $30 million). If Aldridge is bought out, they can sign him at the veteran minimum and take a cap hit of around $700k. So financially, it would work.

Aldridge returning to the Blazers would not only be a great reunion story, I think he would be a great fit as a backup power forward and center. I realize Aldridge is 35 and he may have lost a step defensively, but in a must-win game, or a playoff game, I would rather the backup center minutes going to Aldridge more than Enes Kanter or Robert Covington.

In the last two weeks, coach Terry Stotts has started to favor playing small, and there are factions within the organization that think a three-guard lineup — Lillard, McCollum and Gary Trent Jr. — with Carmelo Anthony and Covington as “bigs” could be this team’s most dangerous lineup. It would have five shooters, and as Stotts has pointed out, allows the unit to play a more aggressive, trapping style of defense. It is the Blazers’ attempt to recreate a version of Golden State’s vaunted “Death Lineup” — when the smaller, but skilled unit of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green suffocated the NBA.

The lineup has had its moments. After Karl-Anthony Towns had 34 points and 10 rebounds on Saturday, Stotts the next day against Minnesota didn’t play Kanter in fourth quarter, instead putting Covington on Towns, who went scoreless.

But as we’ve seen over the last month, this small lineup can run into problems against bigger players. Robin Lopez almost single-handily led the Wizards to the win in Portland. DeAndre Ayton was dominant in a 32-point win. And the Spurs’ Jakob Poeltl had a couple back-breaking tip-ins late.

And no knock against Trent Jr., but I just don’t see him effectively guarding LeBron James, or Kawhi Leonard over the course of a playoff series.

Aldridge would give the Blazers the versatility to still have five shooters on the court, while also having the size and brawn to check centers, while allowing Covington to slide to forward to guard the likes of James and Leonard.

Plus, Aldridge has great pick-and-roll chemistry with Lillard, would be comfortable with his surroundings, and as he told me two years ago, would love to reunite with Lillard to finish his career.

And again, for emphasis: he would be cheap, and wouldn’t force the Blazers to part with a young, up-and-coming player like Little or Anfernee Simons.

As for Cousins and Tucker? A source has told me the Blazers won’t pursue Cousins, and Tucker is an undersized, declining defensive player who can make corner 3s. The Blazers have a better version of that in Covington … plus, Tucker just got traded to Milwaukee.


Any news on Zach Collins? If it’s a possibility he can return before the playoffs does that shift the calculus at all for Olshey regarding the deadline? — Ryan B.

I’m being told the team is gaining hope that Collins could return for the playoffs, if not before the regular season is over on May 16. He had a second surgery on his left ankle on Dec. 30, and Collins said the typical recovery time is 4-to-6 months. The first time he underwent the surgery — after the Orlando bubble — the team targeted his return for mid-January, or 4 1/2 months. He was on schedule for that until he started to feel pain at the 3 1/2 month mark, which was revealed to be a refracture of the same area.

The hope is that this surgery better fuses the break, and I’ve been told the signs so far are encouraging and that a four-month return isn’t out of the question. However, considering Collins has said he doesn’t want to rush back, I would bet the end of May is more realistic than the beginning of May.

“I’m definitely not rushing back,” Collins told The Athletic in February. “I can’t afford to go through this again, so I’m going to be more cautious about coming back early.”

The big question is will the Blazers still be playing when he is ready? If he comes back at four months, he will have nine games in May to acclimate himself for the playoffs. If he comes back at five months, it will be during the first round of the playoffs. Past that? At this point, as Portland see-saws between the fifth and sixth seed, it looks like it would take an upset for them to win a first-round series.

But to the second part of the question: Does Collins’ progress shift Olshey’s thinking at the deadline? Yes and no. I still think Olshey feels he can get by with his stable of big men (Jusuf Nurkic, Kanter, Covington, Giles and possibly Collins) and that he would prefer to add wing depth more than a big man before the deadline. And by wing depth, I mean someone who Olshey feels is better than Rodney Hood or Nassir Little. But the buyout market for wings is looking scarce at the moment, so it will have to involve a trade, which complicates matters. Portland doesn’t have a first-round pick to offer in 2021 (Covington trade) and therefore can’t offer one in 2022 (Stepien rule), leaving Hood and his $10 million contract as the most significant trade piece.

So I guess in a roundabout way I’m saying the Blazers aren’t counting on Collins and would view his return this season as a bonus, but the uncertainty of his status isn’t prompting action.

 

I feel like Nassir has been outplaying Rodney and I know Rodney brings ball handling, but I don’t think he’s as effective as they hoped. Do you see Nas getting more minutes over Rodney, especially in the second half of games? — Stefan G.

Why does Nassir Little not play more minutes or get more touches? He’s shown versatility on offense and has potential to be very, very good. —Ryan M.

In regards to Stefan’s question, it is tricky because it hasn’t always been a clear-cut decision for Stotts between Little and Hood. The recent trend was Stotts playing them together, with Hood at shooting guard and Little at small forward. In Sunday’s game against Minnesota, for instance, Little played alongside Hood for 14 of his 19 minutes.

But now with CJ McCollum back, Gary Trent Jr. takes up all of the reserve shooting guard minutes, and it will become more of a Little/Hood decision. On Tuesday, Little played 17:45 and Hood 10:57, but it was Hood on the court for the last 5:01, and Stotts raved about Hood’s defense down the stretch.

The trend had been that Little was overtaking Hood in minutes. In February, Little averaged 13 minutes but has seen it spike to 18.6 minutes in March. Hood meanwhile has seen a slight dip from 22 minutes in February to 20 minutes in March. I suspect both will get less than that with McCollum back because Trent will continue to get heavy reserve minutes, although Stotts on Wednesday said he doubts Trent will see 31 minutes like he did Tuesday against New Orleans.

The good news for Little fans is that Stotts’ initial instinct when faced with the new McCollum rotation was to play Little ahead of Hood. The bad news for Little fans is that Stotts reverted back to his safe spot — trusting veterans over young players by playing Hood in crunch time. It figures to be a nightly battle for Stotts, and will likely be his biggest tactical decision from here-on-out if the roster stays the same after the March 25 trade deadline.

I don’t know if we can say for sure what is the right call. Little was sizzling in February, hitting 12-of-22 3-pointers, but in March he has come back to Earth, hitting just 4-of-19. And while Hood has not been good this season as a whole, he has his moments, and he does a lot of little things that don’t necessarily catch the eye or show up on the stat sheet.

But I get the growing interest in Little within the fan base. I’m there, too. I love what Little brings — he has a physicality and athleticism that is lacking on this roster. It’s nice to see those dunks after driving through traffic, and the offensive rebounds and putbacks amid the trees. And he’s been present defensively, getting blocks here and there.

But it happens all around the league: coaches trust veterans. And Hood has a lot of equity built up in this franchise for his performance throughout the 2019 run to the Western Conference finals. So until one of them becomes the clear-cut favorite, I imagine it will be a back-and-forth with Stotts — perhaps even nightly — between who gets more playing time.

What does the organization believe Nassir can be? For example, 3-and-D? Like Crash (Gerald Wallace)? — Colby M.

I asked Stotts your question last week, and if you’ve listened to Stotts throughout his nine seasons in Portland, his answer is about as effusive as he gets, which is a good sign for Little.

“I see an unfinished product, and it’s going to be fun watching his career and how his career evolves,” Stotts said. “You know, at this point I wouldn’t want to limit him to a 3-and-D guy. I think he has shown his growth as far as a shooter, but he is very athletic and he can do other things.

“He is still a young player (age 21) so I wouldn’t want to put any limits on what I think he should be, or what he could be, because he’s a talented young guy. Whether it’s ball-handling, or shooting, or being a multi-faceted player? It’s going to be fun to watch how it evolves.”

 

What is your impression on how much leeway Terry Stotts gets this year with ownership? — Michael G.

My impression is he won’t get much leeway. If the season continues as is — with the Blazers remaining as one of the three worst defensive teams in the NBA — one of two things will happen: Stotts will be fired, or he will be asked to overhaul his coaching staff and bring in some noted defensive minds or some fresh eyes. Something has to change in the way this team defends.

And while I generally subscribe to the notion that the onus is on the players to defend, coaching matters. Look at what happened with the Knicks after they hired Tom Thibodeau: New York was 23rd last season in defensive rating; with Thibodeau they are sixth. And this season the Hawks were 22nd in defense before Lloyd Pierce was fired. In the five games since Nate McMillan took over, Atlanta has the 12th best defense and the sixth-best offense and the Hawks are 5-0.

Stotts won’t be fired in-season unless the players mount a mutiny like 2011 against McMillan, and there is no way Lillard would ever let that happen on his watch. Stotts had to sense this was an important year, especially after the offseason moves and the messaging were all centered around improving last season’s 27th ranked defense. It hasn’t happened — in fact, it’s worse. And while he has made the playoffs seven consecutive seasons, earned the favor of his star players, and been able to mostly weather some brutal injury luck, the NBA is a brutal business. Nine seasons in one place, with one conference finals appearance as your crowning moment, is an amazing feat. But to get to season 10, I think the defense has to become formidable after Nurkic returns from injury, or the team has to go on a substantial playoff run.

 

If Zach can actually come back by playoff time, that removes any and all reasons for us to bring in Aldridge as our third string big man.

 

massive if, and not something they should be banking on.

 

Zach was still in a boot a week ago. Seems pretty optimistic to project him back with regular season remaining

And I'm not sure Portland's schedule will allow the Blazers to wait and hope Zach gets back. I doubt they want a 7th or 8th seed

 

I wonder why they wouldn't reach out to Cousins... That seems like a very poor choice.

 

Who cares? At thst point he's just a warm body.

 

If Collins can get healthy, he might be our best option as a long term center.

In theory he should be a decent three point shooter. He can defend both frontcourt position. The problem is that he can't stay healthy.

 

My guess is because Aldridge is about to be bought out. Or maybe even Otto Porter. Both seem like better fits. I also read somewhere that cousins didn’t like being a bench player or some shit.

 

You think LMA is actually going to be cool with coming off of the bench here, on Dame's team. He might have matured some but I doubt he has that much.

 

he doesn’t have a choice, he’s gonna be a backup pretty much anywhere he goes.

 

Right, I just don't think his ego would allow him to be a backup here. Maybe I'm wrong and nostalgia plays no part in what his ego dictates.

 

Legacy!

 

Nice to have one of the pillars back for the ensuing deep playoff run

 

well, the game tonight was on March 18 and Collins was still in a walking boot

 

Counting on Collins to return would be on par with counting on CJ to turn into an all-nba defensive player.

 

Please @god?

 

God hates the Blazers.