Blazers 43-38 DEN - Wed Apr13 10:30pm 5th seed with win or Mavs loss 6th seed with loss and Mavs win Mavericks 42-39 SAS - opponent b2b 3in4 - Wed Apr13 8pm 5th seed with win and Blazers loss 6th seed with win or Grizz loss (if Blazers win) 7th seed with loss and Grizz win Grizzlies 42-39 @GS - b2b - Wed Apr13 10:30pm 6th seed with win and Mavs loss 7th seed with loss or Mavs win Rockets 40-41 SAC - Wed Apr13 8pm 8th seed with win or Jazz loss Jazz 40-41 @LA L - opponent 3in4 - Wed Apr13 10:30pm ESPN 8th seed with win and Rockets loss Tie breakers Blazers own MEM 2-2 lost DAL 1-2 Mavericks own PDX 2-1 own MEM 3-1 Grizzlies lost DAL 1-3 lost PDX 2-2 Rockets own UTH 2-2 Jazz lost HOU 2-2
Wow Dallas and Utah, both on a back to back. The Mavs finish the season with the Spurs, the Jazz finish with the Lakers. HUGE game for both teams but you've got to think it's that much bigger for the Mavs.
Memphis is in freefall. They are an underdog in every game left. I could see them finishing with only ~42 wins and outside the playoffs. Dream scenario if you're a Denver fan. But they could also get a couple fluke wins, or play opponents resting players. Houston is the team besides us most likely to move up, fairly easy schedule. Dallas is in big trouble with Parsons, Deron both injured I'd say they are most likely to be in the lottery.
Could easily see Memphis finishing 2-5 to finish out. Even wins at Orlando and at home versus the Bulls could be tough as the Magic can score. I think a first round Jazz-Warriors series would be pretty interesting so I'm pulling for Utah to make it over those other two. I think they'll actually finish 7th though. Dallas and Houston..I mean who knows? Who cares really? The biggest take away for me is the availability of that 5th spot for the Blazers. The Clippers would be a much more desirable match up than any of the top 3.
Can't lose to BOS, MIA, DEN, or MIN. I understand BOS and MIA are both good teams, but at this point in the season - heading into the Playoffs - we've got to step up our level of play. Their record is on par with ours - losing to an equal on our home floor would be unacceptable.
Yes, I think my preferred 1st round matchups would GSW-UTA, SAS-MEM, OKC-HOU, LAC-POR, with Dallas out. What I think is most likely, however, is GSW-HOU, SAS-UTA, OKC-POR, LAC-MEM, which would probably result in four sweeps.
The "loss" last week to the Clips would be a W if the refs had done a better job in the last 2 minutes. I'll take the Clips any day over the top 3 teams. Not saying that the Blazers would be favored, just that their odds would be better. Hopefully, the refs will be on their game better in the playoffs.
Now I hope we win those; but I don't agree its a can't lose ultimatum. Boston has two days rest as us and may have Crowder back. We won't have a significant home court advantage against them. If the Blazers play great they could still lose and I'd live with that. Now if the Blazers lay an egg and get blown out that would be unacceptable. Miami should be an easier game as they'll be tired and the final game of a trip. Outside Golden State we should be favorites in the rest.
Yeah, I also don't want to play OKC for a number of reasons. One is my pipe dream of talking to Durant about signing as a free agent. Don't think he'd be as likely to consider a team he just fought against in the playoffs. I hope Houston plays them to develop bad blood there. Also would rather play Golden State in the second round if we were so lucky to win a series.
A loss certainly doesn't spell doom and end our Playoff chances - far from it. But IMO a loss to either of these teams would look bad. We're rested too, we're playing at home, and BOS killed us on their home floor. All of that, plus Playoff positioning on the line, means we need to put our best foot forward.
Choosing between OKC and LAC is tough. I agree that we have a better chance of not getting swept by playing LAC. But I HATE LAC, and having to sit through 4-7 games is going to make me a very angry person. I don't particularly like OKC either, though, and will probably end up hating them after watching us play them 4 times in a row. But because wins are all that matter in the POs, I'd rather play LAC.
I'd love to see that round 1 percentage split into our chances vs LA vs our chances against OKC, because I bet we're a 40% chance or better against them.
Clippers have to be the dream match up here for a bunch of reasons. Number one is that they don't have the talent or the bench. Number two is the Blake Griffin situation, which was already in flux before the injury, now they have to try and gel that starting lineup in just a few short weeks. CP plays better without Blake so who knows what'll happen. Granted, that lineup did take down the Spurs in 7 last year, but it's hard to see them as a big threat now.
LA is no longer the golden child team in Cali though so they won't get as many bullshit breaks from the refs as they used to; by the same token, we are overachieving underdogs led by a New Star, with a great narrative of redemption and positivity. I think if the league is still rigged, we beat LA.
The storyline with Doc not allowing CJ to play and Stotts getting angry basically for the first time ever is compelling. We might get a state farm commercial where Damian destroys his 'parents'. The Clippers have so much about them to hate. Westbrook and Durant can leave us completely hopeless. CP3, Blake, DeAndre can put up some monster games too but that team just seems more ready to choke. Who knows though; I could see OKC folding in the 4th quarters as they've done all season and the Clippers regain form so maybe what we wish for now in the end won't be best.
This is reminding me of when we all wanted to play DAL. The truth of the matter is, we've got a slightly better chance than a snowball in hell no matter who we play. But the more we talk about it, and get each other excited, we'll somehow talk ourselves into believing we'll beat the Clippers.
