Random Lessons from the Melo Non-Trade

I think big trades are interesting because whether they happen or not, they give big insights on why things happen in the NBA that we don't usually get to see.

* Why don't we see these insights under normal circumstances? Because everyone's a liar. For example, you've got Avery Johnson saying

Yeah, right. Translation: We don't want to tell the kid, who would be pissed, that we just offered him up. So we'll blow smoke up his ass.

* And don't get me wrong, it makes sense for everyone to be a liar and to speak in blithe non-statements. For instance,

Translation: Yeah, we don't want to trade Noah, but we're also negotiating a contract with him, so we don't want to tell him we wouldn't trade him for Carmelo. Because that's ammo to say he should be paid like Carmelo.

* Despite this, teams are practical about putting their players in untenable positions, and aren't going to leave a trade on the table forever. It messes with folks' heads and makes it hard to actually, you know, work on basketball.

Wojnarski writes

AWKWARD!

* Teams, especially teams that have just fired their brain trust, will attempt to be gamed by other teams. And nobody's gonna offer squat if the player himself won't commit (from the Woj article)

* Too many leaders means no leadership at all. All of this is especially a problem since

* And as always, what things really come down to is money.

This is one of the strangest things about the proposed Melo for Favors/AK47 deal in the first place, at least to me. And it points to the previous point, that the Nuggets were sending mixed signals about what they want. Perhaps they weren't and still aren't sure. Or perhaps the new guys they hired simply don't know how the luxury tax worked and what guys made. It certainly strikes me as possible.

* Now that they're (presumably) up to speed, let me suggest one final push for the Bulls. The obvious deal to make for the Nuggets is one that puts them under the luxury tax. As things stand, they're approximately $12.5 (S2 Salaries)-$14M (Trade Machine) over the luxury tax.

Since most teams are over the cap, even sending back expiring contracts doesn't help the Nuggets much. For instance, instead of paying Melo $17M and being over the tax, if the Nuggets dealt for Eddy Curry, they'd have to pay him $11M and still be over the tax threshold. Which would suck.

So the right deal for a team trying to get the Nuggets to let go is going to give the Nuggets major savings, not major cost. There are two teams that could plausibly help here; Cleveland and Toronto. They both have big trade exceptions from losing their star free agents this summer. Big enough exceptions to absorb Luol Deng's contract without sending anything else back.

By happy circumstance for the Bulls, they both have fairly obvious holes at their small forward position. So they might at least plausibly be interested in Deng. Toronto's Brian Colangelo has reportedly been a fan of Deng (and all things European), so maybe he's the first guy to call.

So if you can swing that, here's how this trade works for all involved:

+ Raptors get Luol Deng for nothing using their trade exception

+ Bulls trade Deng to Toronto, Taj Gibson and James Johnson to Denver

+ Nuggets to Melo to Chicago ($17.1M in salary going out) and receive Gibson, Johnson ($2.8M in salary coming in), future picks and perhaps some cash on top.

This reduces the Nuggets team salary by $17.1-2.8 = $14.3M dollars. That is $14.3M the Nuggets don't have to pay to players as well as about $14M in tax they don't have to pay the league. On top of that, getting themselves under the tax will make them eligible for a couple million dollars of escrow payments and tax distributions from the league, which only teams under the tax threshold receive. In short, such a deal stands to benefit the Nuggets roughly $30M. So, um, I think they'd go for it.

If I had to guess, I think Melo is only going to be traded:
1. Where he wants to go (reportedly New York, LA or Chicago... maybe grudgingly New Jersey).
2. Where the team receiving him can offer significant savings (which basically means they can get the Nuggets under the tax). For the Bulls, that's dependent on the Cavs or Raptors help, but that's true of the other teams as well. Do any of the other potential destination teams have a player the Cavs or Raps would prefer to Deng?
3. Or, the team receiving Melo would be willing to somehow offer a deal so good its worth leaving $30M on the table.

 

Ass kickingly good post. There's so much worthwhile stuff to respond too, I'm not even sure where to start.

I've always thought that from a basketball standpoint, the Bulls are a poor trading partner for the Nuggets and would need to use a multi-team trade to get him here. We don't have enough expiring contracts or young guys on bargain deals to make a deal.

You thought through the issue with much more precision than I did, so kudos to you.

Deng to the Raptors seems like a plausible idea. I'm pretty sure BC has always liked him. Even though the Raptors are bad, BC does not seem to embrace the slash-and-burn style of rebuilding and would be okay taking on Deng's contract.

I highly doubt any team will make a slam-dunk trade for Melo. There's too much uncertainty over whether he'll stay past the year, and he's just not quite good enough to completely gut your team for.

I think Melo will end up tipping the balance of power in the NBA. I see him either staying in Denver for the year and leaving as a FA where he piggy backs a la the big three, or getting traded for peanuts after Denver management pussyfoots around until the last possible second, and upon realizing that they're up the creek, selling him off for cheap to whomever can save them the most money.

 

He won't be traded this year .

Sign and Trade next summer to New York for Anthony Randolph and a filthy big trade exception that the can use in their rebuild