Bulls/Cavs are the only two remaining teams left in the Amare sweepstakes. Brian Hanley was on the score earlier today, and predicted J'Oneal to Miami and Stoudemire to Chicago. The Miami part became true a few hours later. Other Chicago beatwriters have been predicting that the Amare deal will be completed. (Something they never did with Gasol, Kobe, or Garnett). I saw elsewhere that Pat Riley believes Amare will go to the Bulls. Chad Ford said that Phoenix has come to the realization they aren't going to get good value for Amare, so they're content with cap relief and a player who may blossom down the road. (No one on the Cavs really had that indication to him....Tyrus Thomas screams this). I think that Ric Bucher might be misled here a bit. I think a more accurate read would be that the Suns are talking to the Bulls and the Cavs. I expect them to have two completely different trades. First, with Chicago, Drew Gooden, Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Sefolosha, Cedric Simmons, and a first round draft pick for Amare Stoudemire and filler (probably Amudston, maybe Barnes). The second trade would be along the lines of Sczerbiak and Eric Snow for Shaquille O'neal to the Cavs. All signs point to us getting Amare right now.
Do we really need to give them our first round pick? I think we might be able to use that in a trade during the offseason.
The thing I never got during these entire trade talks was why people were talking about how a bigger expiring was more valuable. That's just more salary that Phoenix had to take back. A smaller expiring contract with some young talent thrown on (which Phoenix wanted regardless) then invoking the 125% trade exception, and then invoking the minimum salary trade exception x 2 (I'd assume Amudston at the very least is coming with Amare, maybe Barnes too) made the most sense, to helping Phoenix out financially this year. Hopefully this isn't Ric Bucher "Kobe has played his last game as a Laker" stuff. But given how pretty much all the beat writers think this will happen, when they weren't that way with the other three potential blockbusters, you have to imagine it's done deal. Especially with that Black Jesus inside info last night.
The trades you're proposing don't get Phoenix under the tax though, or even provide much financial benefit to them. Additionally, they put us over the LT (by $100k), which I'm not believing until I see.
If we keep Sefolosha out of the trade, and just do Gooden, Thomas, Simmons for Stoudemire, Amudston, and Barnes, we shed 4.02 million off their cap, getting them down to 71.176. They'd be $26k over the luxury tax. If they have to pay that...that's small beans. Following that up with Shaq for Wally World and Snow, that trade sheds $0.0875 million off the Suns cap, and gets them down to $71.0885 million. They now are under the luxury tax and get the tax revenue. If Varejao goes instead of Snow in the Cavs deal, and the Cavs also take Tucker back, then the proposed Bulls deal with Sefolosha going to the Suns with the Suns getting under the luxury tax can happen.
No it's not. That means they miss out on $5-8M of escrow and luxury tax payments from other teams. So in fact it's a very big deal. It means they're missing out on positive cash flow. And again, it's putting the Bulls over the tax as well. That trade adds to their cap. Shaq makes $21M. Wally+Snow make $21.0875M. Except it puts the Bulls over the tax, which I don't see them doing.
In order to get Amare Stoudemire for assorted crap, the Bulls had to take some type of hit. The trade is basically Capspace, Tyrus Thomas (okay prospect), and crap.
The easiest sort of thing I can see with the Cavs is to get Memphis involved. Cavs get Amare, Q. Ross. They send out $14.4M and take back $15.9M, so that adds $1.5M more to their luxury tax bill, but they're getting freaking Amare Stoudemire for a song. Griz get Eric Snow, cash. The remainder of Snow's contract will be paid by insurance, so if I understand the rules right Memphis' liability will only be about $850k. The Cavs or the Blazers can give them cash to cover that and another million or two for their trouble, which would certainly make it worthwhile for them. Suns get Varejao, Hickson, 1st rounder. This deal gets them well under the luxury tax and means they don't have to shell out about $5M in salary over the remainder of the season. So that's a net savings of about $12-17M for them. Huge.
<a href="http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=b9v8a7" >Trade machine:</a> Trade 1: Bulls get: Amare. Bulls trade: Tyrus, Thabo, Simmons, Gooden The Bulls send out $14.4M in salary or so and take back $15M. So this puts them temporarily over the luxury tax threshold, a problem we'll address with the second trade. Grizzlies trade: Quentin Ross Grizzlies get: Gooden, $3M cash. Since the season is over 60% over, the Grizzlies will only be on the hook for about $2.7M of actual payments to Gooden. By including $3M cash, the Bulls or Suns actually give the cash starved Grizzlies some extra cash for helping broker the deal. And they get Gooden, who's an upgrade for them. Ross needs to be included because the Grizz are $6.7M under the cap and hence a min sal player needs to come back to take on Gooden's $7.1M cap number. Suns trade Amare Suns get: Tyrus, Thabo, Simmons: The Suns trade away $15M in salary and take back only $7.3M or so, which puts them under the luxury tax and nets them a huge amount cash. About $3M they don't have to pay in salary + about $4.8M in luxury tax, plus all the net inflows of escrow and tax other teams pay they won't miss out on. They do this deal in a New York Minute. Now, since the Bulls are over the luxury tax threshold, I say they need to have a deal lined up to get under it. So Trade 2 is Kirk Hinrich for Steve Blake, Channing Frye, and Sergio Rodriguez. This is $10M going out and only $8.1M coming in, so we get out of luxury tax danger. We also get a variety of young and cheap depth to fill out the roster. 1- Rose, Sergio, Blake (injured), Hunter 2- Gordon 3- Deng, Ross 4- Amare, Noc, Ruffin 5- Noah, Frye, Gray Exile- Hughes
If Memphis gets involved and don't end up with Amare their owner has a lot of explaining to do. I still can't believe he turned down that offer from Phoenix. Adding Amare increases the value of the Memphis product and he could probably sell the team and turn a nice profit. Your deal makes a lot of sense MikeDC for all the teams involved, but I can't see Memphis making two blunders in back to back seasons.
What offer for Amare did the Griz turn down? It sucks for them, but If I were Memphis I'm not sure I'd want Amare. I mean, I'd want him, but they have to be realistic about their chances for keeping him and their chances for being profitable with him. I think the odds on both are, well, pretty darn small. Which does sort of make you wonder why that team exists in the first place.
