Rookie EFF 1/9/2013

Here's the latest Rookie EFF Rankings for 1/9/2013:



Not much movement in the top 10. Valanciunas (who didn't play) and Shved swapped spots, as did Zeller and Sullinger. There are now four players (Waiters, Zeller, Sullinger and Barnes between EFF = 9.2 and 9.8. None of these four are in contention for ROY, but will be fighting it out for 2nd team all-rookie.

At the top of the field, after four consecutive sub par games, Anthony Davis finally had a good game (EFF = 23.0) last night against San Antonio. But, even with that one big game, his EFF for the season continues to decline. It was at 20.5 when he came back from his injury and is now at 17.4. The question is no longer, "will Davis play enough games to seriously challenge Lillard for Roy?". The question now, with an EFF = 11.2 over the last 5 games, is "will he play good enough to challenge Lillard?". Even though Davis maintains a half point lead over Lillard in EFF, it is still a one-man race for ROY at this point. Lillard has a big lead in scoring over Davis (18.2ppg vs. 13.7ppg). At this point, Davis has fallen behind Dion Waiters (14.3ppg) for 3rd place in rookie scoring average. Also, the fact that Lillard is leading his team to a winning record (19-5) weighs in his favor compared to Davis, whose Hornets are dead last in the Western Conference at 9-25. If the ROY voting were held today, Lillard would win in a landslide.

In the middle of the pack, Bradley Beal had a good week. He is getting more minutes and taking advantage. While he remains 7th in EFF, with a 0.7 jump in EFF he gained significant ground on Valanciunas and Shved and is poised to pass them if he continue to play well. It's too early to say, but Beal may be playing his way to 1st team all-rookie honors. That big game winning shot against OKC will certainly help his chances with voters. It was all over Sports Center for 2 days, and voters tend to remember those kind of highlights. It also goes a long way toward earning a rookie a reputation as a clutch player (see: Lillard, Damian).

The most significant movement came at the bottom of the standings, where John Henson used some monster games, including an EFF = 33.0 game against San Antonio, to vault all the way from 29th to 14th in the Rookie EFF Rankings. Henson's jump from EFF = 4.4 to EFF 7.3 is a huge one week jump. Although Henson hasn't come close to matching his scoring output since the San Antonio game, he has averaged 13.0 rpg over his last 3 games. If Henson continues to produce like this, he'll crack the Rookie EFF Top 10 in no time. Perhaps that 17-point, 18-rebound preseason game against Miami wasn't a fluke after all.

BNM

 

Midweek update: After last night's 37-point, EFF = 37.00 from Lillard, combined with the 9-point, 0 rebound, EFF = 5.0 effort from Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard has now passed Anthony Davis for the lead in Rookie EFF. Although Lillard led all rookies in EFF during the preseason, this is the first time he's led during the regular season. As of today:

Damian Lillard, EFF = 17.31
Anthony Davis, EFF = 16.65

BNM

 

Yes, although he's come back down to earth since I posted the Rookie EFF update on Wednesday. In the two games since then, he's had 5 pts, 6 reb, EFF = 7.0 and 6 pts, 4 reb, EFF = 8.0.

BTW, I'll have to double check, but I'm pretty sure Lillard's EFF = 37.0 game last night is the highest EFF posted by any rookie this year. Henson had a monster game with an EFF in the 30s recently, and I think Kidd-Gilchrist and/or Dion Waiters may have had one in the high 20s or low 30s earlier in the season.

BNM

 

OK, here's the top Rookie EFF games, so far this season, I've been able to track down.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 12/19/12, EFF = 39.0
Damian Lillard, 1/11/13, EFF = 37.0
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 11/10/12, EFF = 35.0
John Henson, 1/2/13, EFF = 33.0
Damian Lillard, 11/23/12, EFF = 33.0
Anthony Davis, 11/17/12, EFF = 32.0

Kidd-Gilchrist has 2 of the top 3 Rookie EFF games so far this season, but other than those two huge games, he has about 13 good games and 13 bad, to really bad games. His problem is inconsistent scoring. He tends to fill up the box score in other ways. So, when he is also scoring, he gets a monster EFF game. The problem is, he's only scored more than 20 points three times all season and only scored more than 15 a total of four times. He's also scored in single digits in 13 games. His scoring average for the season is 11.0 ppg, 6th among rookies, 7.5 ppg behind Lillard.

Anthony Davis is in a similar situation. Because he's capable of putting up big numbers in rebounds and blocks, if he scores 20+ points, he's capable of having a monster EFF game. But, like Kidd-Gilchrist, he struggles to score consistently. He's more than twice as likely to score in single digits (9 times) than to score 20, or more (4 times). His scoring average for the season is 13.2 ppg, third among all rookies and over 5 ppg behind Lillard.

In addition to his two big EFF = 37.0 and 33.0 games, Damian Lillard has, by far, the most EFF => 20.0 games (16 total). Unlike Kidd-Gilchrist, Lillard is a more consistent scorer, especially for a rookie. He's scored 20, or more, points in exactly half his games (18 of 36) and has only been held to single digit scoring twice. Lillard's more consistent scoring ability, combined with his assists, rebounds (surprisingly good for a rookie PG) and steals, is why he is, far and away, the odds on favorite to win ROY (at this point in the season). His scoring average for the season is 18.5 ppg. Not only is that first among all rookies, he leads the second leading scorer, Dion Waiters (14.2 ppg) by over 4 ppg.

BNM

 

Just to further emphasize why Damian Lillard is currently running away with the ROY honors, let's compare his scoring to the other rookies.

Lillard has scored 20, or more, points in exactly half (18/36) of his games so far. No other current rookie has scored 20, or more, points in a game more than 5 times. In fact, Damian Lillard has more 20+ games than the next four rookies combined:

Number of 20-point games:

Damian Lillard: 18

Other top rookies:
Dion Waiters: 5
Bradley Beal: 5
Anthony Davis: 4
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 4
Total: 17

At his current rate (50%), Lillard will have 41 20-point games as a rookie. So, how does that compare to other recent rookie PG/combo guards

Damian Lillard:
20-point games: 41 (projected)
Season High: 37 points

Tyreke Evans*:
20-point games: 41
Season High: 34 points

Derrick Rose*:
20-point games: 32
Season High: 27 points

Stephen Curry:
20-point games: 27
Season High: 42 points

Kyrie Irving*:
20-point games: 26 (66-game schedule)
Season High: 32 points

Chris Paul*:
20-point games: 23
Season High: 28 points

John Wall:
20-point games: 19
Season High: 32 points

Russell Westbrook:
20-point games: 18
Season High: 34 points

Brandon Roy*:
20-point games: 16
Season High: 29 points

Deron Williams:
20-point games: 7
Season High: 28 points

Rajon Rondo:
20-point games: 3
Season High: 23 points

Ricky Rubio:
20-point games: 1
Season High: 22 points

Yes, there is more to playing PG than scoring, but in that aspect of the game, Lillard is killing his competition and compares very favorably to other recent ROY winners. In terms of scoring, as a rookie PG, Lillard is very similar to last year's ROY, Kyrie Irving (who scored 20+ points in 26 of the 51 games he played and averaged 18.5 ppg).

And, just for kicks, here's a few other high scoring PGs who have won ROY in the not-too-distant past:

Allen Iverson*:
20-point games: 48
Season High: 50 points

Damon Stoudamire*:
20-point games: 37
Season High: 30 points

Steve Francis*:
20-point games: 30
Season High: 34 points

Note: * = ROY

BNM

 

Lillard's numbers are pretty similar to Roy's (more assists, fewer rebounds). Roy improved significantly between his rookie and sophomore seasons and then made a huge leap to superstar his third season. It will be interesting to see if Lillard makes a similar progression.

BNM