http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/smith_120528.html Interesting trade talk. Would you trade Noah for any of the packages above? The Hawks package is weak. I know why he said it, combo guard a starting SF, but I would not do it. I would do the Hornets trade. Maybe the Denver trade. Dont like the
Sam is who Sam is...so this is just an off the cuff idea, but Make It So, Number One, Make it So. Gasol gets a bad rep but he is elite and has more than enough skill to replace and upgrade from Noah (and I like Noah a lot) to make him worth just about any cost that doesn't involve Rose, Boozer or Deng. And for the right deal coming back over and beyond Gasol I'd take a hard look at Boozer or Deng.
Sam wrote a lot of words but the bottom line is that there is no way that you can put Boozer and Gasol on the same team because of both playing styles and contracts. That's really the end of the story. Maybe the Evans-Deng trade has some rationale -- I don't really get it.
The team we currently have was built around the idea of maximizing the Bulls' chances of winning a chip last season, this season, and next season. Derrick's injury all but dashed those aspirations. If we're going to trade core pieces, it should be built around the idea of maximizing the potential of our next window, which will hopefully begin in 2014. In 2014 Pau will be 34 and likely entering his twilight years. He's obviously an outstanding player, but what will he be capable of at that age? I think some sort of trade is all but inevitable, but it should either be a consolidation trade that turns some of Korver-Watson-Brewer-Rip into payroll savings next year (to avoid the luxury tax) and/or bring in one extra dynamic player. Or trade core pieces for a good player who's time horizon will be well suited with Derrick's when he's at full strength in 2014. Trading for Pau is intriguing, but it doesn't quite meet these criteria.
My analysis. Deng would not be part of the deal. Noah, CJ, and Rip is salaries to match. Boozer and Gasol and Deng are a fine starting front court. I would do the Houston, Denver, or New Orleans deals. Consider the Houston deal: Lowry, Lee, Deng, Boozer, Gasol. That's a solid starting 5. The bench would be pretty slim, with Taj, Butler, and our draft pick, plus minimum wage guys. I would strongly consider making New Orleans an offer of Deng for the package suggested. Compare Ariza, alone, to Deng: 10.8 / 5.2 / 3.3 and 1.7 steals. The guy is a fine defensive player and tall/long like Deng. He had a 14.2 PER, also. Deng took 5 more shots a game, and put up 15 / 7 / 3 and 1 steal. He had a 14.1 PER. If we got back Jack and a lotto pick, it'd be a score for us, IMO. Jack scored like Deng (15 PPG) to go along with 6 APG and a 17.9 PER. Consider the lineup after both deals: Lowry, Jack, Ariza, Boozer, Gasol. Our starting 5 have PERs of 18.9, 17.9, 14.2, 19.7, and 20.5. We'd have Taj, Butler, Lee and a couple of draft picks on the bench. How do the salaries look? Lowry $5.8M Lee $4.3M Jack $5.4M Ariza $7.2M Gasol $19M Boozer $15M Rose $15.6M Taj $2.1M Butler $1M = $75.4M Looking at the LT situation, if we got Gasol, I am near certain we let Omer walk if he's offered $5M to start and $10M in year 3. And that's on top of paying the LT. Even without Rose, we'd have a really strong team for the playoffs.
Denny, I can't get past the thought that trying run Gasol and Boozer together screams failure. I feel like Smith's article is dancing around the edges -- you can't make a Gasol deal work unless you ship Boozer, and he knows good and well that the Bulls don't really want him inventing ways to ship Boozer.
Boozer and Noah thrived together. Boozer had his best seasons playing with Okur (a jump shooting C). I'm not sure why you think that Boozer and Gasol couldn't play together. I think the Bulls tried to ship Boozer for Gasol, but the Lakers weren't interested. I'd be all for trading Boozer if we got an upgrade back, either at PF/C or especially at PG/SG. I don't see such a deal happening, which is why the Bulls aren't shipping him somewhere.
Sam went with the notion that no one will want Boozer now and he may be correct. Normally I never liked most of his trade ideas he had posted in the past. A couple of them this time? Not too bad
There are a couple of good posts over at BlogABull about the true cost of using the amnesty clause on Boozer. First, the salaries With the LT at ~$70M, the Bulls start out $8M in the LT. Add in the salary for the #29 pick in the draft of another $1M. If they match Asik at $5M, add another $2.7M. So they're $11.7M into the LT. If the Bulls amnesty Boozer, they are over the salary cap, but under the LT by a $3.3 million. Enough to pay a guy like CJ's salary. The cost to the Bulls would be about $47M for amnesty, or a good chunk of the Bulls' profit for a season. I don't see the Chairman taking that kind of hit to the wallet, and to allow Boozer to sign with the Heat while we pay his paycheck. I think you can forget that scenario. It's much more likely the Bulls let CJ, Korver, and Brewer walk so the Chairman fattens his wallet by avoiding the LT. It's a lost season, may as well be a lost season with Boozer and without those guys and make money hand over fist. If the Bulls are keeping Boozer, or they're looking to find a taker for him in some deal, they're not going to talk him down like they did when Pax was the GM. We'll see how it plays out, but I think we'll know in about a month for sure. The deals I suggested at least save the Chairman $4M over where we are without the deals. And we actually could make a stab at the title with a deep and more balanced roster than this season, behind 4x 18-21 PER type guys. Like I said, if we can move Boozer for an upgrade, I say we'd do it. It doesn't make sense to waive him or deal him for the next incarnation of PJ Brown, though, since we'd be a lot worse a team and still be paying the same salaries (for next season).
Rosenthall, the question is whether next season is really lost. If we can get in the playoffs and Derrick is pretty healthy, having Gasol around would be good and it might be enough. But, I hear the rationale of shooting for 2014. Oh, Dwight Howard........... Denny, I totally agree that amnestying Boozer is....dumb. The guy can play. You want someone different? Find a way to trade Boozer for him.
I think there is a slight problem with the info shaping our discussions. Both KC and Smith, for differing reasons, write stories that are not likely to conflict with what the Bulls want them to write about. I'm sure they've both picked up from context that the Bulls are prepared to go into next season with Boozer -- because there are few options available. I don't necessarily think that there are no options available. I think the Bulls could ship Boozer if they were ready to really gut their draft options. It seems to me to make more sense to not bring back Brewer/Korver or Asik, and try again next season.
You're right, which is part of the reason next season is so difficult to size up. If you keep this team perfectly intact and Derrick is 75% at the end of the season.....who knows what could happen. The Finals are a distant, but possible outcome. However, I'm also under the impression that the penalties for going over the LT are much more egregious with this cap. Someone can correct me, but I also think there's a "repeat offender" fine for teams that are over the LT for multiple years that gets very stiff. We can't keep the team together as is and not go over the LT. Given the Bulls' financial proclivities, I'd have to guess that they're going to choose to sacrifice next year so they can save their LT years for when Derrick's 100%. You know, not completely sacrifice everything, but either dump some of the bench mob or trade a core piece (Boozer, Noah, Deng) for younger players + cap savings + draft picks.
Agree that they won't amnesty Boozer. If all they do is re-up Asik at $5mil, sign their first-rounder at $1mil and waive Korver, Brewer and Watson, they'll be just under the expected $70mil tax threshold...until they fill out their 13-man roster. Even if they fill with minimum guys, they're over $70mil. To get under, they'd need to trade one of their remaining players for a player who makes less. In any case, I don't believe that Bulls' management view '12-'13 as a "lost season" so they'll make good basketball decisions and pay the tax.
Look at the column for 2013-2014. If they cut Rip and add Asik at $5M, they're $5M under the LT with 6 roster spots to fill. Not factoring in the $1M for the draft pick. Miami is paying the LT; a similar amount to the Bulls keeping Korver, Brewer, and Watson. It's good enough for them to make the Finals two straight years.
With two first-rounders (this year and next), looks like they'd be at $68.6 for 9 players in 2013-14. Gibson will be in the position Asik's in now. Not sure what this tells me.
