<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Of the 15 players the Warriors have under contract, as many as 10 could become free agents next season. Here's the list, with an educated guess on the chances they will still be in Oakland next season. (Note: some salaries for this season are pro-rated.) # ANDRIS BIEDRINS (C, fourth season in the NBA, makes $2.64 million this season, will be a restricted free agent, meaning if the Warriors make a qualifying offer, they have the right to match any other team's contract): Leave a little wiggle room in case some team decides to throw a max contract Biedrins' way. Barring that remote possibility, Biedrins will be back. Chances for return: 99.9 percent # MONTA ELLIS (G, third season, $770,000, restricted): Similar situation to Biedrins' -- unless some team goes absolutely bananas, Ellis is staying put. Chances for return: 99.9 percent # BARON DAVIS (G, ninth season, $16.44 million, possibly unrestricted): There's a 60 percent chance he won't exercise his right to opt out of his current deal, which is due to pay him $17.2 million next season, and a 25 percent chance that he opts out but comes back at a lower initial number but with more years on the back end of the deal. Chances for return: 85 percent # AUSTIN CROSHERE (F, 11th season, $1.22 million, unrestricted): It's dependent in large part on how the rest of the season goes. If he can stay healthy, it's likely the Warriors would be interested in a re-up. If not, this number will drop precipitously. Advertisement Chances for return: 40 percent # MATT BARNES: (F, fifth season, $3 million, unrestricted): Lost money last summer by showing too much love for the Warriors after his NBA career was rescued by Don Nelson. It'll be interesting to see if that loyalty's still intact after a season of spotty playing time. Chances for return: 35 percent # KELENNA AZUBUIKE: (G, second season, $690,000, restricted if he declines his minimum-salary option): Azubuike is a shooting guard-small forward combo on a team that already has guys (Stephen Jackson and either Ellis or Davis, depending on whom you call the shooting guard) clocking close to 40 minutes a night in those positions. His return number could easily rise if the Warriors trade any member of that trio over the summer. Chances for return: 25 percent # C.J. WATSON: (G, first season, $380,000, unrestricted): Hasn't shown much to make him stand out from other scoring point guards on the open market. Chances for return: 5 percent # CHRIS WEBBER: (F/C, 15th season, $600,000, unrestricted): His rapprochement with Nelson made for a great story. His play on the court? Not so much. Chances for return: 5 percent # PATRICK O'BRYANT: (C, second season, $2.22 million, unrestricted): Says he might come back if Nelson is gone. But even if that happens, it's still highly doubtful. Chances for return: 0.1 percent # MICKAEL PIETRUS: (G/F, fifth season, $3.47 million, unrestricted): Gonzo. Chances for return: 0 percent</div> Source
With Biedrins and Ellis I would probably just let the market decide their values. I can't see any teams really breaking the bank for either of them to the point where we wouldn't be able to match. All of the teams I can think of who could potentially have the money to sign them have their own big time FAs to sign; Philly with Iguodala and Louis Williams, Atlanta with Josh Smith, Charlotte with Okafor, Grizzlies have no need for Ellis or Beans with Conley, Crittenton, Darko, Gay, etc. With Ellis, I wouldn't be surprised if he opts to take a 3 year contract at 7-9 mils a year. Sure he'll want more than that and if we're going to compare then he probably deserves a Kevin Martin-esque 12 mils a year contract. That being said, if he takes a shorter contract, say three year deal with a player option for the third year then that gives him the chance to prove hes a max contract player, he'll make more money since he'll be in the league longer, and he'll still have time for probably two more long term contracts down the road. If he opts for a long term deal then, as I mentioned, I would imagine it would be in the neighborhood of 5 years 50-60 million based on what Kevin Martin got. Perhaps we could get a bargain if the market is really cool on him. With Baron I think its pretty likely that he does opt out. Hes had a spectacular season and thus far proven to be injury free, if the team makes the playoffs and he performs well again then it will be prime opportunity for a long term deal. If he waits another year I would imagine that the yearly salary and number of years would fall off tremendously because teams don't want to risk long term flexibility for a 30 year old injury prone PG. Assuming we make the playoffs this year, he'll have had his first major-injury-free season in a while, have had a good attitude for a couple years, produced at a high level including the playoffs, etc. perfect time for him to sign a 3-4 year extension. If he doesn't opt out, gets injured next season, the team does poorly, he has attitude issues, etc. all of that will hurt his chances. I would be happy with a Chauncy Billups type extension. Chauncy got 5 years, 60.5 mils last offseason with the last year being a team option. 10 mils a year is a good salary, Baron may command more like 12-14 but if he really wants 5 years I think Mullin ought to be able to get it down to 10-12.
Looks like Patrick OBryen wants to go. http://www.contracostatimes.com/warriors/c...?nclick_check=1 <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>"I'll play anywhere I'll (get a chance to) play," O'Bryant said. "I'm a basketball player, not a basketball watcher." This much is clear: He doesn't plan to sign up voluntarily to serve under Warriors coach Don Nelson again.</div>
Why not offer Ellis and Biedrins a good, but not insane max, contract right now and lock them up? I don't imagine much will change between now and the end of the year that would make them feel otherwise. If anything their value may go up since they're both still improving. Take away the opportunity for another team to bid max on them, if you can. If they say no thanks, you're no worse off. I suppose one of them could get injured later this year, but you're going to be giving them a long-term contract anyway, that's always going to be a risk.
We cannot offer them extensions right now, as the window for an extension closes after the season starts. We couldn't offer extension to Monta last offseason anyway, and we tried to lowball Biedrins but didn't work. Good news is that they are restricted FAs, and we can only hope that no team would offer a max contract, so that we have to break a bank to resign them. This is my list of them returning Biedrins: 99.9%: No team would offer him a max contract, and he didn't make a jar dropping improvement this season. So we should be able to lock him up for 10 mils per year. Davis: 95%: I don't think he will opt out. And, even if he opts out, nobody will give him a max contract. Ellis: 80%: He is young, extremely fast and improving each game. In order to attract FAs, you have to overpay them (see: Lewis) So, I am scared that some team may throw a max contract to Monta. And if he actually receives a max contract, will we match? I am not too sure at this point. Barnes: 50%: He couldn't get a long term contract he was looking for. And, the way he played, I don't see him getting a long term contract anywhere else. At the same time, he still is a better fit than Pietrus or Azu. If the price is right (like 1-1.5 mils/1 year), I can see him coming back. Croshere: 40%: He is a big man who can shoot 3 pts. Our type of player. Azubuike: 30%: He may opt out from his contract and look for a better contract. Watson: 5%: Really didn't do anything after he was signed for this season. Webber: 5%: Unless he becomes a significant factor, he is not coming back, especially after what Wright did in Biedrins' absent. POB: 0.1%: He will return if Warriors is the only remaining team in NBA Pietrus: 0.01%: He will return if Warriors is the only remaining team in the world...
You have to factor in the Nelson disgruntled factor. It's not just POB. While I appreciate what Don Nelson has done, even as a fan, I start getting disgruntled with the way Nelson doles out PT. Sometimes there's no rhyme or reason to it except to Nelson. It's got to bug guys like Buke who had a breakout year last season, Barnes and MP. Wright may be too young right now to complain. POB has done enough to earn some PT on other teams. I'm still intrigued, but he'll get traded or dumped like Josh Powell. Oh well, we'll probably have one more year of Nelson and then we'll be lucky to get Keith Smart in there.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kwan1031 @ Mar 4 2008, 02:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>We cannot offer them extensions right now, as the window for an extension closes after the season starts. We couldn't offer extension to Monta last offseason anyway, and we tried to lowball Biedrins but didn't work. Good news is that they are restricted FAs, and we can only hope that no team would offer a max contract, so that we have to break a bank to resign them. This is my list of them returning Biedrins: 99.9%: No team would offer him a max contract, and he didn't make a jar dropping improvement this season. So we should be able to lock him up for 10 mils per year. Davis: 95%: I don't think he will opt out. And, even if he opts out, nobody will give him a max contract. Ellis: 80%: He is young, extremely fast and improving each game. In order to attract FAs, you have to overpay them (see: Lewis) So, I am scared that some team may throw a max contract to Monta. And if he actually receives a max contract, will we match? I am not too sure at this point. Barnes: 50%: He couldn't get a long term contract he was looking for. And, the way he played, I don't see him getting a long term contract anywhere else. At the same time, he still is a better fit than Pietrus or Azu. If the price is right (like 1-1.5 mils/1 year), I can see him coming back. Croshere: 40%: He is a big man who can shoot 3 pts. Our type of player. Azubuike: 30%: He may opt out from his contract and look for a better contract. Watson: 5%: Really didn't do anything after he was signed for this season. Webber: 5%: Unless he becomes a significant factor, he is not coming back, especially after what Wright did in Biedrins' absent. POB: 0.1%: He will return if Warriors is the only remaining team in NBA Pietrus: 0.01%: He will return if Warriors is the only remaining team in the world...</div> I think it's 95% on AB and Monta and 85% on Baron. Baron's the most risky, not just because of his health, but he has a lot of other business activities to keep him hoppin', so once he gets an extension he may not focus as hard on basketball. I hope we sign him to not as long a contract as AB or Monta, but bigger bucks should he decide to opt out. He'll remain the highest paid Warrior for the time being. Barnes will likely come back because he's been loyal, but I agree he doesn't get what he's looking for. If he gets a good deal from someone else, then the Warriors will likely let him go and sign Buke. I think Croshere will be back and get a raise, but not multi-year. Buke will likely get a good offer, but I'm not sure it's going to come from the Warriors. CWebb should come back if the Warriors want him. I doubt Watson comes back. POB and MP will likely get traded. I'm okay with getting Channing Frye for POB in some kind of 3-way deal. Miami could be interested in POB and MP.
We absolutely have to have Beans and Monta back; they are the backbone for the future. Baron will likely keep his max salary for next year because no one can pay him more next year; an extension is likely. Really wish could keep Kelenna; he's a perfect complimentary player and he's shined even after not playing for long stretches and he's tough.
With the season Baron is having I can see him opting out. Even if he will get less money next year, he may want to try to get a 5 year deal and I'm not sure I feel comfortable giving him a huge long term deal. I may be getting ahead of myself but if he does decide to opt out, what about going after Calderon. I think he has the size to play well with Monta and he can run a fast paced team. Toronto can match any offer but with Ford I'm not sure they'll give him the money he deserves. We can probably take him for about 10M/year so that will free up money to add someone else to the mix. I'd like to add another big but I can't think of any difference makers we can get for close to the money we would be saving. The other option would be using Baron's money to go after Arenas.
Baron Davis has been so hit or miss at times... I just wish he'd take less shots and dish out the assists to the guys who have the hot hands. I feel like a lot of times Monta Ellis' ultra high fg % has been largely ignored. I'm hoping someday that the distribution of shots will be half and half for backcourt and frontcourt/middle. If we sign a guy like Gilbert Arenas and have him play next to Monta Ellis, I can almost sense that we'd be taking over 2/3's of all shots from the perimeter when we really should be finding the offense close to the basket. Plus, in terms of defense Baron Davis is way better than Gilbert Arenas. If we're going scoring point guard, I'd rather just insert Ellis in there and find a shooting guard who is nba ready and start building up offensive big men. Maybe the best scenario is to have Monta Ellis eventually play the point guard position like how Tony Parker plays point even though he's more of a scorer/slasher. We could also have him run off screens a la Rip Hamilton. We could get Marco Bellinelli doing the same since that's how he played in Europe. This would put the ball in the hands of guys like Wright who could play the high post, with Biedrins down on the low block. Sjax and Azubuike could man the starting 2 and 3 positions with Biedrins/Wright at F/C if Marco ain't ready to go. I'm hoping defensively we'd still be able to hack it. And can we take care of the ball? The shooting guard position would be in deep question since I'm not even sure if Kelenna Azubuike can play a good shooting guard and Marco doesn't really have an inside game with the ball. Sjax would have to play a shooting guard role even though he's not the best ballhandler on the team. Baron really is the key because he can make difficult plays with the way he handles the ball and sees the floor. I'm not sure if we can find a shooting guard that can emulate a Baron Davis. It'd be cool if we had a guy like young Ray Allen or Kobe Bryant or Joe Johnson or somebody who can handle the ball pretty well and pass.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Custodianrules2 @ Mar 11 2008, 06:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Baron Davis has been so hit or miss at times... I just wish he'd take less shots and dish out the assists to the guys who have the hot hands.</div> While I understand your frustration with BD's decision making since I share it, I don't think his decision making has hurt us that much, if at all. Maybe in the past, but certainly not this season. Regardless of how well the West is doing, the Warriors are doing phenomenal so I get a bit irked when people on the boards or callers on the radio find reasons to complain about how the Warriors are doing, from management to the players. I think if you're going to nit pick about BD's play, the first thing that comes to my mind is his free throwing %. It's sub-par and frankly, unacceptable. I can say pretty definitively that the team's overall free throwing has hurt us in a few games this year and that just shouldn't happen.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kensaku @ Mar 12 2008, 01:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Custodianrules2 @ Mar 11 2008, 06:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Baron Davis has been so hit or miss at times... I just wish he'd take less shots and dish out the assists to the guys who have the hot hands.</div> While I understand your frustration with BD's decision making since I share it, I don't think his decision making has hurt us that much, if at all. Maybe in the past, but certainly not this season. Regardless of how well the West is doing, the Warriors are doing phenomenal so I get a bit irked when people on the boards or callers on the radio find reasons to complain about how the Warriors are doing, from management to the players. I think if you're going to nit pick about BD's play, the first thing that comes to my mind is his free throwing %. It's sub-par and frankly, unacceptable. I can say pretty definitively that the team's overall free throwing has hurt us in a few games this year and that just shouldn't happen. </div> Yeah, I think Pietrus' decision-making has hurt us more in the past more than Davis', although Pietrus has played well as of late. I guess maybe Baron Davis' shot selection was the type of decision-making I was thinking of and not so much his pass timing (because his b-ball IQ and court awareness is really high). I think why some people are complaining about the Warriors is because they got no real solution to deal with bigger teams inside. We got no answer to how to get our offense moving when that the three ball ain't going down and we're stuck in halfcourt situations. It would be nice if the balance of shot selection came within inside and then out and we had true power forwards and centers touching the ball more. But as it is now, a big majority of the shots come from perimeter play and from beyond the arc. That game is just not that consistent because of the lower margin of error it takes to shoot a 3 and how hard it is to shoot the 3 point shot the same way every time. If the Warriors drive the ball inside and find shots closer in, they get higher %'s and can even get the other team in foul trouble. The three point shot we can get any time but we seem to settle for it too much and it causes the other team to break out on us. Our transition D has not been very good when guys spend too much time trying to halfcourt pressure and the ball gets cherry picked up the court. Our rebounding has been good lately, but we were playing against teams that tended to play a bit small. If we faced a true power forward or a center and they were playing with intensity we'd be demolished for sure. Our only answer after that would be to go smaller because that's how Nelly likes it... That's why people gripe. Regular game wins lie a bit, but the playoffs will be the mark of who is truly a team that can matchup with anybody.
