In order to know really what Portland should do prior to the trade-deadline, I think it's important to evaluate what we really have. It's a little difficult since many of our players haven't even played in many of these games, nor will they. Still, here's my player by player forecast of their future standing with the team to better figure out where everyone fits with the future of the team. Players are listed by age: Howard - Signed through this season and overachieving, yet still is very expendable. Possible goner. Miller - Signed through, at least, next season and playing better next to Roy with every game. There aren't likely any better point guards on the trading block now or in the off season. Stays. Przybilla - Signed through next season - there's absolutely no way he declines his player-option. Who knows at this point what we'll get from him next year. Stays. Blake - Signed through this season, currently underachieving, possibly finding his way though as a reserve. I'm sure he could find, at the least, a two-year deal worth, maybe, $6M with someone else. Paying and providing a reserve role for another couple of seasons doesn't make sense, not with Bayless coming on strong. I could see us wanting to retain him, but at half his current contract and as an insurance policy should one of our small guards get injured. Blake's got a lot of ball left, he and his contract have value, I'm thinking he's moved to an Eastern Conference contending team before the deadline. Goner. Randolph - Goner. Outlaw - Signed through this season. Depending on when he returns from his injury and how he performs, his next contract could be for below-market dollars and short term, maybe two years in length. Even with a healthy, back-in-the-groove-of-things return, his highest asking price would be around 3 years/$12M, the last year being a team-option. With Martell and Nic, Outlaw becomes less-needed. And with Dante showing he can man the reserve spot behind Aldridge adequately as a rookie, one wonders whether another commitment to Outlaw is very smart. Like Blake, his contract definitely has value, but given his injury, that's probably the only value he holds. Portland relies on our small forwards to play behind Lamarcus because we have no bigger to do the job. Dante, while a good player and bigger, is still inexperienced. Bringing Freeland over might be the answer, but even he is young and inexperienced. He's producing at an okay rate in Europe, but nothing earth-shattering. The same could be said about any player selected in the 2010 Draft. Acquiring a better player in free agency isn't likely. Players like Scola will require more money and a longer contract than we're willing to sign, if past Blazers' signing are a sign. Jamison would be wonderful, I think, but his contract is too high for us to trade the pieces we'd want moved to get him. For now, I see us re-signing Travis for another two seasons, despite our other capable player. He's too good to just toss away for nothing or a less-skilled player, our other small forwards we actually need at the small forward position, and our young players - Cunningham and Freeland, should he come over - aren't tangibly good enough to rely on yet. Stays. Roy - Duh. Fernandez - Signed long-term to rookie-scale contract. Yes, he plays the same position as Brandon, but we still haven't seen what he can do once he adjusts more to the NBA and is given a larger variety of roles (playmaker, first option, second option). We have an interest also in showing our overseas players, especially our Spanish-born one, that we're committed to their development and success. There's no reason to move him. At worst, he's easily one of the top reserve shooting guards in the league for the next three seasons for us. At best, his inclusion with the team is expanded to both the off-guard and point guard with more regularity, especially with Blake gone. Stays. Aldridge - Signed long-term. Personally, I feel we won't see his best for another two years. From here until the end of the season, we'll see the numbers that we saw last season as he adapts to the changes of the team and gets healthier. He won't be going anywhere. Stays. Webster - Signed through the next three seasons including this one and playing at a career-best level. He's only twenty-three so this is only the beginning. He's versatile enough to play three positions. Stays. Cunningham - Signed through next season. He's performing well-above his salary. Even with a healthy Outlaw and Freeland possibly coming over, Cunningham is already our best defending power forward and is very reliable. Stays. Pendergraph - Signed through at least next season. With the uncertainty of our centers, Pendy's emergence, and low cost, he's not going anywhere. Stays. Oden - Duh. Mills - Only signed through this season. Not really sure what we have here. It all depends on his numbers in Boise. I have a feeling he'll be a worthwhile asset. Stays. Bayless - Signed long-term to his rookie contract. There's no need to move him, especially with his surprising play (at least to me). Stays. Batum - Signed long-term to rookie contract. Just with our other young players, there's no need to move him. Stays. This leaves us with the following players heading into next season: Guards: Roy, Miller, Fernandez, Bayless and Mills (Roy can also play as the small forward) Forwards: Aldridge, Outlaw, Webster, Batum, Cunningham (Aldridge can play center) Centers: Oden, Przybilla, and Pendergraph (Pendy can play forward as well) That leaves twelve players that IMO will be Trail Blazers next season. Another big has to be our highest priority. I'd like another wing player, capable of fitting in as the shooting guard or small forward. I'd also like a veteran point guard that doesn't mind helping out from the bench and in practice. It makes a sense to fill the big man role with Freeland. Assuming he can leave contractually his ACB League team, he could sign with Portland for a three-year term for around $10M. I believe this is about what he's making in Europe; however, without the exposure and competition of the NBA. With the uncertainty of all our bigs, I don't see why we can't guarantee the guy around 18 minutes for a big chunk of an NBA season. We'd use up roughly half of our mid-level exception. We keep our other two overseas players in Europe, and probably add another one via the draft to keep our own private "free agent" pool filled. I like the idea now of using the draft for a wing. Personally that's my hope. Obviously a player such as Evan Turner is way out of our range, but maybe a Lazar Hayward from Marquette if the team wants someone a little older, or James Anderson of OKS. They may not be first rounders, but they're solid players that could step in on the perimeter, much like our young guys have for us this season, should injuries happen. Rounding out the fifteen would be the best point-guard scrap we find left over when the dust settles during free agency. If we don't make any major moves, our team would look something like this: Guards: Roy, Miller, Fernandez, Bayless, Mills, Veteran Forwards: Aldridge, Outlaw, Webster, Batum, Cunningham, and Draft Choice Centers: Oden, Przybilla, Pendergraph, Freeland Getting back Oden, Outlaw, and Batum; returning a more experienced Pendergraph, Cunningham, Fernandez, and Bayless; adding Freeland; and having the entire mix of players more comfortable with playing with each other is really exciting me. I wouldn't mind breaking up our core for Luol Deng, but outside of him, I'd just rather sit back and watch this core continue on together. As is, I really believe this can be a championship-caliber team in time. Thoughts? Based on what you've seen this season so far, what direction do you see the team going? What direction would you LIKE to see them go?
This teams plays too well with the current group of guys, and is clearly going to need another big - so I would not be surprised to see a small consolidation move that reduces our guard arsenal for another big, even if it is a short-term one.
First off, thanks for the thought. I enjoyed reading it. I will now respond to a few parts. I agree with most of what I don't respond to. He could be gone, but as I will state later, I think Outlaw is gone. DC is still young and Howard really has added a lot to the team. Not only on the court, but he seems very willing to take a back role when needed and step out when asked to do so. This is needed in a full roster, and with the combo of frail centers and lack of established back up PF, I think Howard is signed to a 1-2 year deal. I think it's time for Outlaw to move on. I like him and would have no problem with him staying, but with Batum and Webs at the SF, and DC at bu PF, I just don't think he is needed. But with Outlaw being best friends with Roy, it is hard for Nate not to play Outlaw. So I believe that KP will choose this time to let Outlaw walk to another team and leave on his own accord. I really am not sure with Rudy. I think there is not room on this team for Rudy to be the type of player and have the role that he wants. That means that he will become a issue in the future. But his talent is obvious and if he has a good second half to the season, I could see him being traded before problems arise.
You are mistaken about Blake. He is going to retire a Blazer. I am thinking a 4 or 5 year deal for 3 million per. This isn't what I would want Portland to do but I feel about 90% sure they will sign Blake long term. They love the guy.
It all depends on if we get somebody to step up and be that #2 scorer consistnetly. Will Aldridge finally step up? Or do we need to plan on him just being a good part of a supporting cast and look for a #2 scorer? Can somebody else on the team step up and be that scorer?
