The Nellie Effect: Expect Playoffs

Here comes the press coverage. I'm not getting too excited yet. I want to see Nellie mesh with the team before I start to expect anything, but this is definitely the big news of the offseason in my opinion, no free agent acqusition can top this. It was a good day to be a W's fan, and I look forward to seeing it formalized Wednesday.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/stor...marc&id=2565651

 

Eh... I'm turning pessimistic again. I think he will be the next Larry Brown of the New York Knicks. The Knicks can score and they have plenty of talented scoring guards, but can they play defense, rebound, avoid turnovers and make good decisions with the ball? Plus, Nelson will be inheriting a ton of scorers that can't shoot free throws from Bdiddy to Jrich to Pietrus to Dunleavy to Monta Ellis. These guys are just terrible. That ball better go to Diogu a lot.

 

The difference between the Warriors and the Knicks is that Baron and JRich will pass the ball and want to win. I'm not sure you can say the same thing about Starbury, Crawford and Francis.

 

Not to mention the difference in coaching styles and such.

Custodian,

If you had the choice, would you have kept Monty or did what Mullin did and get Nelson? I know your stance on Monty and why you wanted him to stay. But getting a coach like Nelson is huge.

 

Well, we might have a better backcourt than the Knicks do, but who has the better frontcourt now? I feel like Curry is pretty much on the same level with Troy Murphy in terms of impact, except I like Troy Murphy better in both skill and contract size. Curry is only effective when guys give him the ball and if he doesn't do something stupid with it first. Troy Murphy is most effective when he doesn't have to play that much help D or act as secondary option, because he's not a versatile scorer. We didn't really get to see if Ike Diogu was better than or equal to Channing Frye at PF so we will wait and see. Foyle playing might have been worse than Jerome James not playing...

I'd probably take anyone of Qrich, David Lee, or Jalen Rose just so I don't have to look at the same roster of Dunleavy and Pietrus. Actually, no wait. I've seen Qrich lately and he looks horrible like Pietrus. Jalen Rose is washed up and David Lee is a SF/PF tweener, but a pretty fun energizer to watch. Maybe the Knicks have even worse small forward and big men problems just like us and it is not their guards that are the problem.

I'm sure if we switch our lineup around our frontline won't be that bad. It's just we got inexperience that would be occupying the starting lineup ahead of guys like Murphy and Foyle. But talent is talent. A guy be a 12 year veteran of Math and still suck compared to a guy who is naturally talented and creative enough to figure out problems he's never done before.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Run BJM:</div><div class="quote_post">Disagree CR2, if anything last year was comparable to the Knicks because we had a coach whose philosophy was a terrible fit for the roster and the coach refused to change his gameplan to accomodate his players.

Nelson can bring out the best of his players by creating mismatches and hiding players' weaknesses. Nelson demands respect and knows how to deal with NBA egos (at least for a few seasons), Monty was in way over his head from the very beginning and his lack of confidence is probably the reason the players didn't respect him much. I think Nelson is a great coach who can get us into the playoffs and get us to another level so that after he leaves we'll be left with some well developed players and a good team. We won't get screwed by the refs night in and night out any more, we won't have to watch Foyle flailing around for 30 minutes while Biedrins and Diogu waste away on the bench, we won't have to see our team try to beat Miami or Phoenix at their own game.

I think Baron will really flourish under Nelson, he had 9 apg last year in a slow tempo team playing with Foyle and Dunleavy for most of the game, imagine him running the team like at the end of 04-05. Nelson can get that and maybe more out of the players, Monty just flat out wasted the talents of alot of our players and had no idea what he was doing.</div>
We'll see, Run. If Baron Davis can't stay healthy and guys keep missing opportunities to hold the lead in second halves, then I can't really blame Don Nelson either. The guy is inheriting a crap roster in which Mullin didn't have any business investing heavily in Fisher/Foyle/Dunleavy/Murphy at the start of Mullin's office. With few healthy or "true" stars and too much inexperience trying to replace mediocre vet talent, we're probably going to dig ourselves deep a lot faster than last year if transition defense continues to be a problem and we keep trying to run anyway. All around the team has a weak mental game, as well as pretty lame athleticism/ballhandling/passing/shooting level for a running team, a half court team, or a basketball team.

The only way Don Nelson can get more out of these players throughout the season is to hypnotizing everyone into believing "we're out of the playoff picture." Then we'll start seeing 110+ points games regularly. If the players still know we're in the hunt, then forget it.

I just think we're around the Knicks level. Yeah we do some things well, but for everything we do well, there are two things we don't do well. For every mismatch we have in our favor, there's a few going back against us that cancel things out. There's just no reliable threat on our mediocre 5 man roster, unless it decides to play some team defense so it doesn't have to rely on all this scoring just to outproduce the other team. If we made more freakin' stops, I bet Murphy would get 20 rebound games more often, but we can't even play defense to get defensive rebounds. We have to make runs on both ends of the floor and I just don't think Nelson or this roster is a sign that things will change very soon. It's the same old warriors sh--, different day.

 

I hear where you are coming from CR2. To be honest with yall, I did not want to get rid of Monty until halfway till the All Star break at least if he was just going to be replaced by some interim coach like Mario Ellie. But if it was for a premier coach like Larry Brown, Stan VanGundy or Nelson, then I was all for it.

The same goes for making a trade. If it meant making a trade that was marginally in our favor, then I would not really be for it unless it meant getting rid of another big contract (specifically Foyle's) or it was really lopsided like the Baron Davis trade.

I think this was a great move, however, lets not too our hopes up so soon. Again, this is why I made that post titled "memo for next season". Let's approach this season with our hearts guarded at least until the All Star break. Collagen (scar tissue) is not as strong of a connective tissue as muscle/ligaments/tendons. When your heart gets scarred, every time you reaggrivate an injury (missing the playoffs) you are more prone to reinjury and further damage. You gotta live though, so lets just be careful about getting our hopes up too high before the season even starts. We are a Jrich or Baron Davis injury season ending injury away from our 13th straight season without a playoff seed...

 

Custodian

So from what you're saying the Warriors are better off with Monty? I still want to know who'd you rather have. Or are you saying theres no difference.

 

I don't think Nelson will be like Brown. I really think Brown was just experimenting a lot of stuff in his first year, because nobody, including Brown, expects him to get fired after a year. That's why he made line up changes after line up changes, see which players will fit in and won't fit, and prepare to make PO in his 2nd year like he always did. Also, another reason why Brown got fired is because Brown and Thomas fought for power. If there is any power struggle between Nelson and Mullin, it would be like 1992 Dream team fighting against a high school team. And, Nelson has a huge fan support, so even if he fails in here, the blame will go to Mullin and his poorly constructed team. And, in terms of players, Nelson is always good at creating mismatches, and AFAIK, in his previous stay with Warriors, he never had legit big man at 4 and 5. Grant that Dunleavy will never replace what Mullin did with this club, but I think he will find ways to utilize our raw talents, just like what he did with other clubs...

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting AnimeFANatic:</div><div class="quote_post">Custodian

So from what you're saying the Warriors are better off with Monty? I still want to know who'd you rather have. Or are you saying theres no difference.</div>

I could see why he could make comparisons of us to the Knicks. I could even see why he would think there is no difference between Monty and Nellie if our players suck. I am just holding on to hope that the change of scenery will really motivate some players. I think Nelly will be respected a heck of a lot more than Monty. I just hope he is not so hard on his stars like Davis or something and it turns into Webber v2...

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Warriorfansnc93:</div><div class="quote_post">I could see why he could make comparisons of us to the Knicks. I could even see why he would think there is no difference between Monty and Nellie if our players suck. I am just holding on to hope that the change of scenery will really motivate some players. I think Nelly will be respected a heck of a lot more than Monty. I just hope he is not so hard on his stars like Davis or something and it turns into Webber v2...</div>


Nelson turned the Mav's into a powerhouse when they sucked. I don't see why he can't change the Warriors in his 3 year stint.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting AnimeFANatic:</div><div class="quote_post">Nelson turned the Mav's into a powerhouse when they sucked. I don't see why he can't change the Warriors in his 3 year stint.</div>

Oh I agree, I am just being guardedly optimistic. But one thing Dallas has that we dont have is an All NBA first team player...

 

Here, how about this:

Nelson > Monty.

nuff said.

 

I'm being guardedly optimistic also. I'm not saying they will make the PO's, just that the team will be better under Nellie than Monty and have an "increased" chance of making the PO's. I'm sure thats what you're feeling now also.

 

The Warriors organization remind me of a beautiful young woman who wont put out....they are a damn tease. I hope Nellie is the real deal.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting AnimeFANatic:</div><div class="quote_post">Not to mention the difference in coaching styles and such.

Custodian,

If you had the choice, would you have kept Monty or did what Mullin did and get Nelson? I know your stance on Monty and why you wanted him to stay. But getting a coach like Nelson is huge.</div>
Unconventional lineup, I'd go with Nelson. Small ball is definitely not Monty's game, but that was where the talent was and it's what needed to be played if we had no center that could stay on the court or catch the freakin' ball/catch a rebound (instead of batting it to the other team to lead their break). We can't develop projects that aren't ready and try to win at the same time.

But for playing conventional lineup with actual good defenders, shooters, ballhandlers, passer, and inside scoring, I want a guy like Monty (not necessarily Monty himself).

There are teams that grind it out and absolutely control the tempo. We're not one of those teams, so changing a coach for a real uptempo small ball kind of guy might help a little, but ultimately it's a player's league IMO and Nelson will need to find a new all-star trio to rival Nash/Dirk/Finley or Tim/Mitch/Chris. So far the only formulas I know is to get the franchise superstar player(s) that make others better and can't be stopped anywhere, or you get a really balanced and unselfish inside and outside attack with good defenders and good role players. The perennial 7th and 8th seeds have been nothing but that and they've had talent and veteran experience in the same package.

Right now we're one of the youngest teams in the league and our experienced players have been useless. Even if we have star guards, if our best guard can't stay healthy, and Jrich is dominating the ball because the other guys don't help out much, we're pretty screwed. No center, no reliable small forwards, a power forward who has reached his ceiling, unproven/streaky backups and a backup point guard will get smoked by conventional and unconventional lineups. But maybe Nelson can think of something new. Maybe he can find a real productive athlete in somebody we would have never thought to get. Somebody in Europe or undrafted college guy, perhaps? Who knows. Nelson's influence might even help out trades if Mullin and Nelson work the front office closely together.

Coach and GM need to be on the same page and I think Nelson knows more about Gming in the NBA than Montgomery. Montgomery was good as a GM in college as he recruited some pretty good guys to fit his system, but those things don't cross over into the nba if his boss doesn't even know what he's doing. Mullin is a desperate man he probably needs Nelly to counsel his depression and anxiety level right now just like he has in the past.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting AlleyOop:</div><div class="quote_post">Here, how about this:

Nelson > Monty.

nuff said.</div>

Agreed...

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">Unconventional lineup, I'd go with Nelson. Small ball is definitely not Monty's game, but that was where the talent was and it's what needed to be played if we had no center that could stay on the court or catch the freakin' ball/catch a rebound (instead of batting it to the other team to lead their break). We can't develop projects that aren't ready and try to win at the same time.

But for playing conventional lineup with actual good defenders, shooters, ballhandlers, passer, and inside scoring, I want a guy like Monty (not necessarily Monty himself).

There are teams that grind it out and absolutely control the tempo. We're not one of those teams, so changing a coach for a real uptempo small ball kind of guy might help a little, but ultimately it's a player's league IMO and Nelson will need to find a new all-star trio to rival Nash/Dirk/Finley or Tim/Mitch/Chris. So far the only formulas I know is to get the franchise superstar player(s) that make others better and can't be stopped anywhere, or you get a really balanced and unselfish inside and outside attack with good defenders and good role players. The perennial 7th and 8th seeds have been nothing but that and they've had talent and veteran experience in the same package.

Right now we're one of the youngest teams in the league and our experienced players have been useless. Even if we have star guards, if our best guard can't stay healthy, and Jrich is dominating the ball because the other guys don't help out much, we're pretty screwed. No center, no reliable small forwards, a power forward who has reached his ceiling, unproven/streaky backups and a backup point guard will get smoked by conventional and unconventional lineups. But maybe Nelson can think of something new. Maybe he can find a real productive athlete in somebody we would have never thought to get. Somebody in Europe or undrafted college guy, perhaps? Who knows. Nelson's influence might even help out trades if Mullin and Nelson work the front office closely together.

Coach and GM need to be on the same page and I think Nelson knows more about Gming in the NBA than Montgomery. Montgomery was good as a GM in college as he recruited some pretty good guys to fit his system, but those things don't cross over into the nba if his boss doesn't even know what he's doing. Mullin is a desperate man he probably needs Nelly to counsel his depression and anxiety level right now just like he has in the past. </div>

You need to be a politician...