Nice guys do win. On a Monday night in August Jim Thome showed us that. He reached an elite club with only seven other guests. Thome powered in two homers and raised his career total to 600, eighth on the all time list. But someone has to crash this 600 club; eventually there will be nine or ten members. But why sit back and wait for time to tell us who those future members are. Sports are all about predicting the future so lets crack this genie ball open and revel the secrets of time. Today we will be looking at six active players who have a chance to crash this party. So lets get started! Manny Ramirez Age: 39 Homers: 555 Chance of getting to 600: 60% Manny being Manny, and Manny hits home runs. But can he keep it up? Even if he does hit 600 home runs it will be tainted, as Manny was an active participant in baseballs tainted era. In other words he used steroids. But the stats don’t lie. Ramirez has averaged 6 homeruns in the last three seasons. If he keeps that up Manny will need 8 more seasons to reach the coveted number. Can he do it? Maybe. Vladimir Guerrero Age: 36 Homers: 446 Chance of getting to 600: 35% Things are looking gloomy for Vlad. Age is creeping up on him but if he stays healthy 600 is conceivable. Guerrero has averaged 23.7 home runs in the past three seasons and has 10 this season. Though if he keeps that up he will need 16 more seasons. Vladimir has about five years left in him and to reach 600 he would need to hit 31 homers in each season! Hopefully he will have a break out season where he becomes a slugging force again but if he doesn’t then he will still be great but not elite. Chipper Jones Age: 39 Homers: 446 Chance of getting to 600: 18% Do you believe in miracles? You would have to if Jones got to 600. I’m not saying he won’t, I’m just saying its unlikely he will. Chipper Jones has been a home run hitting machine but for Jones age isn’t just knocking on the door it’s inviting itself inside and having coffee. I have to compare him to Vladimir Guerrero. They have the same number of homers this year (10) and career (446). But Jones is three years older then Vlad and has only averaged 16.7 home runs in the last three years. So if things are looking down for Vlad things are shattered on the ground for Jones. Albert Pujols Age: 31 Homers: 437 Chance of getting to 600: 96% Ladies and Gentlemen I introduce to you a man with a real chance- Albert Pujols. Barring a freak injury or an alien attack Pujols looks in good shape. He needs 163 home runs to reach 600 and he’s averaged 42 home runs in the last three years with 21 so far this year. And he’s only 31! If he keeps up that average it would take him about four more seasons to get 600. And believe me Albert Pujols has a lot more than four seasons left. Andruw Jones Age: 34 Homers: 414 Chance of getting to 600: 43% It seems as if the new Yankee has hit a bump in the 15-year road. While he is not old he definitely isn’t a spring chicken. After leaving the Atlanta Braves in 2008 Jones’ home run productivity dropped off greatly. He had 26 home runs in 2007 and only 3 in 2008. He followed up that career low with dismal 17 and 19 home run seasons. This year he only has 7. After leaving Atlanta Jones moved through four teams (the Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees) and never had success. If he can replicate his Atlanta years then 600 is right there but if he can’t it’s a long ways away. Adam Dunn Age: 31 Home Runs: 365 Chance of getting to 600: 55% Adam Dunn is the same age as Albert Pujols but 72 home runs younger. Anyway Dunn could have a chance at the 600 club. Over the past three seasons Dunn has averaged 38.7 home runs and has 11 this season. Does this relatively low number mean he’s done? Maybe but the stats are lying a bit here. The Big Donkey has only played in 99 games this year so his stats for this year are misleading. He will bounce back and at such a young age he has room to grow.
