Besides Thibs being mentioned for every anticipated coaching job there's really not very much going on in Bulls land at the moment. So....... The measurements from the draft combine just came out and they can be seen here: Draft Measurements Over the years I've come to emphasize these results less and less. Having NBA athleticism, an NBA body, and an NBA game are all very different things. I've had many dashed expectations because so and so's max vertical was 4 inches higher than the next guy. No more getting giddy like a 16 year old schoolgirl because random white guy who scores 28 points per game can bench press the bar 16 times so he MUST BE AN NBA ATHLETE. These measurements are only useful at the margins, when they bump a player into a category where you have to say "has anyone with his game succeeded at his height/weight/length before?" But none the less they're still good for speculation, and they can sometimes confirm your suspicions about a player. To me here are the three interesting takeaways: Gary Harris is a good bit shorter than you'd like. He's a 6'2 SG with average/below average length. That nudges him into "can you really play that game at that height" kinda territory. I really liked him as a late lotto pick but now I've simmered down a little bit based on this. Jarnell Stokes has a nice game, but his lack of length seems like it might cement his fate as a poor help defender in the league. I still think he'll make a team glad they drafted him at the end of the first though, and I wouldn't be upset if we picked him at 19. Aaron Gordon looks to me like a guy who's going to have to make his living being a 3/4 shawn marion/bo outlaw type who impacts the game through defense. I can't imagine him developing the ball skills to reliably play on the perimeter. So with that said, his gator arms kinda scare me. It seems like if you're going to be that guy who switches positions on defense length is real important to give your game that "oomph" it needs to stand out. Especially on this team. Other than there's nothing here that rocks the boat. There seems to be a deep pool of players who could be decent picks at 16 and 19, so it's hard for me to narrow my preferences down to a few guys. Here are my general feelings so far: Harris (if he falls), Stauskas, and KJ McDaniels are at the top of my list for the 16th pick right now. They all seem like they'd offer a lot to the team. I have no idea what to think about the Euro prospects. They're all over the place. I guess I wouldn't complain if we picked one, but given the wide divergence on their draft positions and the fact that I've never watched any of them play it's hard for me to feel strongly one way or the other. I'm down on Doug McDermott. He looks like he'll be very deficient in athleticism, agility, and explosiveness. I'm officially going on record and getting my shovel and piling his corpse in the mass NBA grave occupied by Adam Morrison, Luke Babbitt, Trajan Langon and Luke Jackson. I've never cared all that much for Zach Lavine, although I understand why some people get excited over him. I really like Kyle Anderson but I'm not sure I like him on this team. I also liked Mitch McGary when he played the year before last, but who knows what the deal is with him and his back. If he gets a clean bill of health I'd be happy to take him with either of our picks. I'm officially mum on Adreian Payne, TJ Warren, Tyler Ennis, Rodney Hood, PJ Hairston, James Young, Elfrid Payton, Cleanthony Earley, Spencer Dinwiddie, Deonte Burton, Jabari Brown, and the other dozen or so guys who are theoretical possibilities with our picks. I won't be upset if we pick them, it's just hard for me to feel one way or the other about them at the moment.
You know I'm big on length measurements, Rosenthal, so I was pretty excited to see the combine postings. The length measurements help me envision what a player will look like in the NBA. Like, if it weren't for the measurements, I feel like I'd be trying to figure out if Aaron Gordon could be a rich man's Tyrus Thomas, instead of trying to figure out if he can develop into an athletic wing. There were less surprises this year. DraftExpress and other outlets are getting better at covering measurements at the high school allstar games and camps so it feels like there's less intrigue on combine measurement day. I only had a few of takeaways: -- Adrein Payne is a big boy. I was looking at him as how he measured in high school, which was 6'9" height /7'0" wingspan. That's Luol Deng sized. Instead Payne came in with a 7'4" wingspan. That's Taj Gibson, and with Payne's extra weight I don't see why he couldn't play center. I still don't think Payne is an ideal fit for this the Bulls -- he probably isn't quick enough to cover NBA guards on rotations -- but doesn't he intrigue you now? I mean, it seems to take forever for bigs to fully develop their skill sets and with Payne, you have a player who has turned himself into an NBA player by adding different facets to his game. I want to see where he's at in a few years when he may have refined his post game and developed a consistent mid range shot. -- I had the same sinking feeling as you about Gary Harris. Here's the problem: the best part of his game is defense, which is bad reason to draft a shooting guard. (Shooting guards above all have to be able to shoot.) And Harris measures out at a size smaller than Derrick Rose. In other words, you have a player who is drafted because of his ability to stop people who may not be big enough to consistently cause opposing players trouble when they're trying to get a shot off. I'm not quite sure what he's going to do in the NBA. -- I also am no longer overly enamored McDermott. I only saw a couple of his games in college but he looked to me like he often leveraged his height against smaller, slower power forwards to get his shot off. But at 6'7.25" height/6'9.25" wingspan you're not looking at an NBA PF. There are NBA shooting guards who are longer than that. I just find him a lot less interesting now that I don't think it's probable that he creates mismatches in the NBA. -- There were a lot of guys who were the right height and came in just where you expected them. Stauskas will be just fine as an NBA wing. Kyle Anderson is every bit as long as you'd hoped to make him an intriguing and terrifying draft pick. Shabazz Napier is small enough so that you have to question whether he'll be able to consistently guard his position. As far as what I'd like to see the Bulls do, it'd be thrilled if they're able to grab Stauskas and one of Payne or Clint Capella. Capella is probably a better fit, but I like the fact that Payne has shown the ability to improve, especially since he plays a position where it seems like it takes a lot of work to master. I'm guessing two of those three or all three will be off the board when the Bulls pick.
You know, after I wrote this post I went back and took a closer look and ended up calming down a bit with Harris. The biggest reason is that he has almost the same measurables as Dion Waiters, who's done alright despite his small stature. I don't think Gary Harris is as explosive an athlete as Dion, but at least we have a data point for a prospect who's turned out alright. If they were both in this draft I think they'd probably be drafted around the same time. Doug I think is one of those guys who could've really benefited from outstanding measurables since he's deficient in athleticism. I really don't think he's going to be able to guard most wing players so you'd feel a lot better if he had PFish height and length. Yeah, this combine was notable for its lack of surprises. I suspect you're right that a lot of it is because draft coverage has become a year-round cottage industry and the prospects are tracked more closely from high school. Kyle Anderson really measured out great.....maybe even good enough to play PF. It's amazing how close his numbers were to Julius Randle. Stauskas would be great. For some reason it's very easy for me to see his game translating to the NBA, but you get the feeling he's just out of our reach. I see him going somewhere from 10-14. I really haven't watched Adreian Payne too much so it's hard for me to get very excited about him, although he seems like a good pick on the face of things. No clue about Capella.
For a while now, I've thought DRose might be our answer at SG. He's Kirk-sized, so a little smallish for the position, but not absolutely too small. Smaller guys like BG and Nate are NBA players at that position and are even shorter. There's no rule that you have to be PG to handle the ball 99% of the time. Miami's PF (LeBron) does it. Melo does it. It would allow the Bulls to look more for a PG to fill out the lineup. Someone like DJ is fine - he is a 3pt shooter and seasoned floor general. As for the draft, at 16 and 19 we are lucky to get a guy who contributes in the rotation, and struck by lightning if we get a guy who in his first year is near all-star caliber. Jimmy made the lineup as a 3rd year player. Taj became a 6MOY candidate and potential starter at age 28 and his 5th season. Noah didn't become a full-time starter until he was 25 and 4th season. The guys we drafted and who became starters pretty much right away were Kirk and Lu, and Kirk only started because Jay Williams got hurt. Both those guys were top 10 picks, too. BG, picked at #3, started half the time and played 6th man half the time for his first few seasons. Anthony Davis, picked #1 overall by New Orleans two seasons ago, was a 13.5/8 rookie. A contributor as a rookie, but no superstar. He is a superstar in his second season though. Hard to find #16 and #19 type guys who become superstars. They're more likely to be James Johnson specimens. Anyhow, getting back to the point. If Rose is moved to SG, a draft pick that is a PG that can contribute in season 1 would be a score.
I like Derrick Rose at PG. At this point, Stauskas is "my guy" for the 16th pick and I'm none too happy that DraftExpress has him gone at #14. I hate talking about shoe height, but... ...calling Gary Harris a 6-2 SG is kinda unfair. He measured at 6-2 1/2 without shoes. If that makes him 6-2, then DRose is 6-1 and Ben Gordon, who we used to bemoan as being a 6-2 SG, really was a 6-0 1/2 SG. - With the new measurements, I'm comfortable that Harris is a 6-4 SG. His length is OK at 6-6 3/4, but not ideal for a "defense-first" SG. If the Bulls were able to get him without trading up, I'd be OK with it. - As shiny and bright as one-and-done freshman are, the ones who are going to be around when the Bulls are picking are pretty much pure projects. Picking one of them would likely be another brick in the wall between Thibodeau and the front office. - We can poo-poo McDermott all we want, but it's not like he was ever going to be there at #16. Edit: I just saw that McDermott's vertical was 36.5. That's the same as guys like Russell Westbrook, Corey Brewer, Tony Allen and others considered to be at least average athletes by the very high NBA standards. He's top 10. - Adreian Payne comes across to me as a tailor-made Bulls pick at #19. If the Bulls somehow are able to take Stauskas and Payne, color me a happy guy.
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2009-06-30/sports/0906290541_1_bulls-james-johnson-taj-gibson "I don't think my game is ever going to stop growing," Johnson said. "If a 5th grader had a nice crossover (dribble move), I'd take it. Every time I see a move I like, I work at it and try to put it in my game." Johnson, who played point guard in high school, reiterated his preference to play small forward despite playing power forward at Wake Forest. The Bulls envision the 6-foot-8-inch, 260-pound Johnson creating matchup problems. "One of the things that impressed us about James when we scouted him was he could make plays off the dribble," general manager Gar Forman said. "We saw him penetrate the lane and either dish to bigs or kick to shooters in the corner. That gives you versatility with how to attack a defense."
http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/outside-shot/Chicago-Bulls-2013-NBA-Draft-213175441.html The player they choose could end up being a solid acquisition, or a complete and total bust. So we decided to take a look at the absolute worst Bulls first round draft picks over the years and cross our fingers that we won’t have to add 2013 to the list. 1998 Corey Benjamin (No. 28): Desperate for another high-flyer to come in and continue the excitement left behind by the departure/retirement of Michael Jordan, the Bulls took Benjamin out of Oregon State. In three seasons in Chicago he was a non-factor and nine games into his fourth season – with the Atlanta Hawks – he was out of the NBA for good. 2000 Marcus Fizer (No. 4): The bruiser from Iowa State was supposed to be the low-post replacement for Elton Brand whom they traded to the Los Angeles Clippers for the rights to Tyson Chandler. But Fizer played four seasons in Chicago and never came close to contributing what Brand did offensively. 2001 Eddy Curry (No. 4): No way the Bulls could miss at No. 4 two years in a row, right? Wrong. The Thornwood High graduate was supposed to pair with the aforementioned Chandler and create a sort of "twin towers" kind of movement in Chicago. But despite having solid numbers offensively, Curry could never get his weight (and maturity) under control. After four seasons, he was gone and despite a few solid seasons with the New York Knicks, he received more than his fair share of “DNP-Overweight and Immature” on his way out of the league. 2002 Jay Williams (No. 2): The point guard from Duke is the ultimate cautionary tale. Taken right after Yao Ming at No. 1, Williams was billed as the player of the future in Chicago, so much so that the Bulls even gave him Michael Jordan's old locker. But he played one tumultuous rookie season in Chicago before a motorcycle accident destroyed his leg and ended his career before it even got started. 2009 James Johnson (No. 16): Probably one of the strangest picks for the Bulls considering they guys they passed up: Jrue Holliday, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague and Eric Maynor. Obviously, these guys are all point guards and the Bulls were looking for help on the wing, but Johnson never provided that. He was traded to the Toronto Raptors halfway into his second season in Chicago and his current career path is that of an NBA journeyman. (I'd add Teague to the list) The guy picked in 2013 was Snell, rookie of the Year. My bad, he wasn't.
This kinda' blew my mind. :MARIS61: It's funny -- we think about small college power forwards playing the three all the time, but we don't usually see the reverse. I think I like Kyle Anderson at the four a lot. His handling and shooting would give opposing bigs fits, right? And 6'9/7'3" wingspan is a little bit bigger than Carlos Boozer. I'm not completely sure Anderson is strong enough to guard opposing power forwards in the paint but I like his chances. Lamar Odom came into the league at 235 while Anderson weighed 230 at the combine. And he's just a college sophomore. Yeah, I like that idea. Anderson isn't a great fit for the Bulls but I could see him creating all kinds of match up problems at the four.
Yeah, Gary Harris is plenty big enough to play shooting guard in the NBA. The problem is that Harris doesn't shoot or handle that well, and the thing that he was best at in college -- locking down opposing guards -- may not translate because of his size. As to McDermott being on the board at 16, I don't think we have any idea what's going to happen. I feel like the days when you could read about what was going to happen through the entire first round are long gone. I'd like Stauskas at 4 . . . maybe higher. Who knows what the GMs actually think? I'd be over the moon if the Bulls could get both Stauskas and Payne.
Staukas is interesting because it seems he could be pretty versatile as to plugging in position. Payne has those freakish long arms and a rep to have range to be a stretch player. I don't know if I would take Payne with the first pick. If we use 16 on Staukas or another 2-3 wing and Payne is gone at 19 would anyone take a flyer on McGary and his questionable back? Not being dismisssive about Anderson. Just not sure he will be around.
If he was healthy I'd prefer McGary to Payne. He's more of what we need. A taj/Noah/Mirotic(?) frontcourt is great, but lacking in girth. We quietly lost our size advantage the last two years and if McGary could play a solid 10-15 minutes a night we'd get it right back. At his size there's nothing he does well right now that wouldn't translate to the pros. And he's got a great motor, which I've come to appreciate as a very unique skill unto its own. And one this team prizes. Of course the back is the big question mark, but I'd be more than happy to take him with one of our picks.
One of the things you have to like about Stauskas is that his shooting mechanics don't look like they'll need any modification once he gets to the pros, so he should be able to just let it rip once he's in the league. This was my biggest concern about Snell after we drafted him. He was billed as a shooter but his release looked too slow for the pros, and I think it's one of the reasons he didn't shoot as well his rookie year as he did in college. He doesn't have great explosiveness, but he has an advanced handle and changes directions really well. That combined with a jumper that teams have to respect should be enough to make him an interesting player off the dribble, even though it won't be his strength.
His mechanics are one thing to like and there are a ton more. The clincher for me was watching him shoot coming off picks with the ball in his hands. There's like four shooting guards who can both catch and shoot and shoot off the dribble and they're all stars. It's funny that you should mention that you like how Stauskas moves his feet but you don't think he's an explosive athlete. I kind of felt the reverse watching him in college -- that he could really throw down but I wasn't sure how he'd fare moving his feet on defense against an elite wing. It looks like Stauskas scored well on the lateral movement drills at the combine, which may just mean his agent had him train for it. Still, it's another nice data point.
I think Stauskas uses his feet well enough to get by his first man with a pick in the NBA, but he's not explosive enough to get past the rotating man. So he'll be good at pull-up jumpers, step-back jumpers, shooting off picks, with his feet set, and using dribble handoffs but in the paint he'll be a guy who's tossing up floaters and scoop shots and not getting all the way to the rim. Whenever I saw him go to the rack in college it was when he was able to find space that's not going to be there in the pros. But he does have a high free-throw rate, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's good at slivering his way into contact. IMO he does not move his feet well on defense which will be his big problem in the NBA. I don't think he'll be scheme-bustingly bad, but he's going to put in some work to make himself average in the NBA, and there's a legitimate chance that he'll always be deficient in this area, which is the biggest risk to drafting him IMO. Just curious....what's your opinion on KJ McDaniels? I'm kind of curious why people aren't putting him on the same plane as Stauskas, Hood and Harris in the draft. Of the guys most likely to be available when we pick I like him the best. I doubt his offensive output will translate to the pros, but I don't see why he couldn't have a Jimmy Butler type game offensively with similar defense. Whenever
I've rethunk the meaning of Gary Harris' measurements since I started this thread and now I basically agree with you. For what he does well it's enough to make you a little queasy, but not enough to really move the needle one way or another. I'd welcome the chance to pick him at 16. McDermott is a good example of how my take on the draft process has changed over the years. 7 years ago I would've been all over myself for the chance to draft him, but now I'm hoping some other team takes him before us to leave better players on the table. His combine numbers were good, but: 1). I've come to discount combine numbers much more now than in the past. And McDermott's a great reason why. 36' is a good vertical.....but only if you can actually use it in a game. Marcin Gortat and Luke Jackson also had 36' verticals. Jordan Farmar had the highest vertical in his draft class but was never an above the rim player. McDermott might be able to jump 36' in the air, but we know from 4 years of college ball that he can't use his verticality in a game. The fact that his measured vertical is 1' higher than Dwayne Wade should be indicative of just how little the measurement says about a player. 2). The combine numbers seem to favor upperclassmen over underclassmen. I'm not sure why, but I'm guessing it's because they've had 3 or 4 years of targeted training programs. Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony and Al Jefferson rated as some of the worst athletes of their draft class. They don't sway my opinion about him.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sport...t-spt-0517-20140517,0,5240006.story?track=rss "I watched them pretty much all season, and I think they're a shooter away from making that next jump," said Duke's Rodney Hood, who met with Bulls brass on Friday. "They had Mike Dunleavy but other than that, they really don't have too many shooters. I can come in and stretch the floor right away." That's obviously some youthful bravado talking, but the point remains: In a draft deep with solid shooters, don't be surprised to see the Bulls use at least one of their picks on that need. "If it's close between two guys and we think one can fill a need for us moving forward, we may put a little weight into that," Forman said. The Bulls also met with Creighton's Doug McDermott, UCLA's Jordan Adams and Kentucky's James Young, among others, this week. ... Euro splash: Nikola Mirotic, the Bulls' 2011 draft-day acquisition, scored 19 points on 6-for-8 shooting in 24 minutes, 35 seconds as Real Madrid downed FC Barcelona 100-62 in Friday's semifinal of the Euroleague final four. Real Madrid faces Maccabi Electra Tel Aviv in Sunday's final. "We watch all his games," Forman said of Mirotic. "Obviously, (international scout Ivica Dukan) goes over quite a bit. John (Paxson) and I have been over. We're confident he's going to come (to the NBA) at some point. Whether it's this summer or the following summer, we still don't know."
I completely agree with the point that combine numbers can be misleading and you got to be able to use what you got. Prime exanple is Tyrus Thomas was his ridiculous jump out the gym near 40 inch max vertical. Clueless as a basketball player and a waste of a valuable pick.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that every prospect will wax loquacious about a team that might draft them. The well prepared ones probably have a pre-rehearsed elevator pitch for every team in their draft slot. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bulls put off Mirotic for a year so they can sign a big money FA this offseason. Mirotic getting something close to the MLE would probably exclude us from making competitive offers to Carmelo, Pau, Monroe, etc.
