(tl;dr material) Team Situations Entering Draft/FA

(NOTE: This is a working document. Let me know if you see errors. I'll fix specific options later on, and give scenarios for each team iin a future part. Please let me know if there's something else you'd like to see with these)

I keep hearing "how many teams have (X amount) of cap space?" "Who needs a Center?" "What draft picks does Team Y have?"

So, here's Part Two of the “Summer Decisions, 2013-Style” Series. With this one I’ll look a bit more into Free Agency and how teams are positioned to enter it.

Some basic ground rules:
1) While negotiations can start July 1, players cannot be signed until 12:01am EST on July 10.
2) “Cap Number” is the sum of on-the-books contracts (like Aldridge, Lillard, etc.), cap holds (like Hickson or Maynor, or 2012 Nic Batum), stashed overseas 1st-round picks (like Fran Vasquez and Petteri Koponen), 2013 1st-round picks and roster holds for each space available under 12. So the Blazers have 8 contracts on the books, a potential for two more in Maynor and Hickson, a 2013 first-round pick, and no overseas stashes—for a total of at least one, and maybe three, roster holds of $490k apiece.
3) For the purposes of this exercise, I am not counting any options (unless specifically stated in the team’s post). I don’t care if it’s a no-brainer that Player X will use his ETO, or Player Y’s non-guaranteed contract will be cut. I will, however, highlight who has an option and what the option amount is.
4) The salary cap and luxury tax lines were fixed for the 2011-12 and 2012-13 season at $58.044M and $70.307M, respectively. That means the “apron” (which will come into play later) was set at $74.307M—it’s always $4M more than the luxury tax line. For the purposes of these projections, I’m using $60M as the tax line and $72.6M as the tax line, which makes $76.6M the new “apron”.
5) I am using the lottery order as the draft order for purposes of calculating roster holds and cap number. If the lottery doesn’t go in order I’ll revise later.
6) Free Agent list came from ESPN’s NBA Free Agents Page (accessed 4/23), salary info from StoryTeller’s Contracts site, draft order and lotto probabilities from ESPN.com, and draft pick salary numbers from Hoopsworld. Trade exceptions from HoopsRumors.
7) The Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception is a contract of up to 4 years that starts at $5.15M. The Taxpayer MLE is a contract up to 3 years that starts at $3.183M and cannot be used if you've done a sign-and-trade. The Room Exception MLE is a contract of up to two years starting at $2.652M.

Some fun facts before we begin:
1) K*be takes up more cap space than DET’s whole roster
2) ATL’s roster has a lower team cap number than the following: K*be, Dirk, Melo, Amar’e, Joe Johnson, P.Gasol, Bosh, LBJ, Wade
3) The “Luxury Tax” isn’t in the CBA. It’s called a “team payment” if you’re over the “tax” line.

The "We happy? Oh yeah, we happy."-Division
The teams that are currently going to be under the tax line, draft positions , their number of roster spots needed to fill (counting draft picks), and players with options. Potential Restricted Free Agents are noted as well. NOTE: If a Qualifying Offer is not made to an eligible player, the player will become an Unrestricted Free Agent.
These teams can use their cap space as well as the Room Exception and Veteran Minimum Exceptions. They cannot use the non-Taxpayer or Taxpayer MLE or the BAE.
1) ATL: $35.4M in space, #17 and #18 pick, 7 roster slots to fill. Options: Stevenson, Mack, Scott. RFAs Ivan Johnson, Jeff Teague. Trade exceptions available: $762,195; $1,375,000; $1,100,000
2) UTH: $28.4M in space, #14 and #21 picks, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Murphy, McNeil, Marvin Williams. No RFAs
3) DET: $26.4M in space, #7 pick, 5 roster slots to fill. Options: Stuckey, Villanueva, Kravstov, English. No RFAs.
4) CLE: $21.3M in space, #3 and #19 picks, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Speights, Miles, Jones, Quinn. RFAs Omri Casspi, Wayne Ellington.
5) NOH: $20.7M in space, #5 pick, 6 roster slots to fill. Options: R. Lopez, Jason Smith and 4 reserves. No RFAs.
6) SAS: $18.4M in space, #28 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Diaw, Bonner , Mills. RFA Gary Neal.
7) MIL: $16.0M in space, #15 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Ellis, Ayon. RFA Brandon Jennings. Trade Exceptions: $1,482,000; $1,182,200; $650,000.
8) SAC: $14.7M in space, #6 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Isaiah Thomas. RFA Toney Douglas, Tyreke Evans, James Johnson.
9) LAC: $14.0M in space, #25 pick, 5 roster slots to fill. Options: Green, Summers. No RFAs. Trade Exception: $1,622,617 (expires 7/11/13)
10) CHA: $13.9M in space, #2 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Adrien, Gordon. RFAs Gerald Henderson, Byron Mullens. Trade Exceptions: $850,000
11) POR: $13.4M in space, #10 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Pavlovic. RFA Maynor.
12) PHX: $12.9M in space, #4 and #30 pick, 1 roster slot to fill. Options: Haddadi, Tucker, Brown. RFA Diante Garrett.
13) DAL: $12.6M in space, #13 pick, 7 roster slots to fill. Options: Marion, Mayo, James. RFA Rodrigue Beaubois and Darren Collison.
14) HOU: $12.4M in space, no pick, 5 roster slots to fill. Options: Delfino, Brooks, Parsons, others. No RFAs.
15) PHI: $11.7M in space, #11 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Brown, Justin Holiday. RFA Charles Jenkins.
16) IND: $8.5M in space, #23 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Stephenson. RFA Ben and Tyler Hansbrough and Jeff Pendergraph.
17) ORL: $3.7M in space, #1 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Hedo, Harrington, O’Quinn, Moore. RFA DeQuan Jones. Trade Exceptions: $17,816,880; $1,500,000.
18) MIN: $1.1M in space, #9 and #26 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Kirilenko, Roy, Stiemsma, Cunningham, Chris Johnson, Gelebale. RFA Chase Budinger, Nikola Pekovic.

The "Big Lebowski" Division ("OVER THE LINE!")
The teams that are going to be between the tax line and the apron. These teams can use the Non-Taxpayer MLE OR Bi-annual Exception (but not both) and Veteran Minimum Exceptions. Additionally, if a team uses its non-Taxpayer MLE or BAE, the apron becomes a hard cap that no exception can be used to go over.
1) WAS: $61.2M cap number, #8 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Okafor, Ariza. RFA Garrett Temple. Trade Exceptions: $1,703,491; $1,198,680.
2) MEM: $62.8M cap number, no pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Bayless. RFA Austin Daye, Jon Leuer, Dexter Pittman. Trade Exceptions: $7,489,453; $2,083,042; $1,300,000; $1,241,923; $1,000,000.
3) OKC: $67.2M cap number, #29 pick, 2 roster slots to fill. Options: Thabeet, Orton, Liggins. No RFA. Trade Exceptions: $2,445,480; $2,338,721.
4) DEN: $69.3M cap number, #27 pick, 1 roster slot to fill. Options: Miller, Iguodala. RFA Timofey Mozgov, Julvan Stone.


Special Category: Even though TOR, BOS and GSW are below the apron now, the use of either the taxpayer or non-taxpayer MLE is based upon being under or over the apron AFTER YOU USE IT. So none of these teams could use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE, because the $5.15M would take them over the $76.6M projected apron. BOS and GSW can go over the apron, however, to use the Taxpayer MLE.

1) TOR: $71.5M cap number, #12 pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Lowry, Kleiza, Gray, Lucas. No RFAs.
2) BOS: $74.9M cap number, #16 pick, 1 roster slot to fill. Optionsierce, White, Shav Randolph, Williams. No RFAs.
3) GSW: $75.5M cap number, no pick, 5 roster slots to fill. Options: Biedrins, Rush, Landry. No RFAs. Trade Exceptions: $762,195; $762,195

The "I'm Like Superfly TNT!!" Redlining RaceCar Division
The teams that are going to be above the apron: These teams may only use the Taxpayer MLE and Veteran Minimum Exceptions.
1) CHI: $76.8M cap number, #20 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: Hamilton, Thomas. No RFAs. Trade Exception: $5,000,000.
2) NYK: $80.2M cap number, #24 pick, 3 roster slots to fill. Options: JR Smith, White. RFA Chris Copeland, Pablo Prigioni. Trade Exception: $854,389.
3) LAL: $81.0M cap number, no pick, 7 roster slots to fill. Options: Metta, Duhon, Meeks. RFA Devin Ebanks, Andrew Goudelock, Darius Morris, Robert Sacre. Trade Exception: $1,174,080
4) BKN: $87.1M cap number, #22 pick, 1 roster slot to fill. Options: Watson. No RFAs.
5) MIA: $87.7M cap number, no pick, 4 roster slots to fill. Options: Allen, Jones, Lewis, Chalmers, Varnado. No RFAs. Trade Exception: $854,389.

 

So the highest trade exceptions available are:

1. ORL: $17,816,880
2. CHI: $5,000,000
3. MEM: $7,489,453/$2,083,042
4. OKC: $2,445,480/$2,338,721

 

When do the trade exceptions expire?

 

I can put those in, but these all will be good through the FA period (a mix of last summer's exceptions and the trade deadline). If they weren't going to be good through July, I placed a date (such as the Clippers' 1.6M one)

 

I'm trying to figure out their use at this point. I don't think, for example, an exception can be used to acquire a player via S&T, right?

 

Sure you can. Actually, you can think of a Trade Exception almost as "cap space", but only for trades. You can't sign a FA with one, but you can take an S&T one. It's specifically called out through "non-simultaneous" trade portions of the Coon CBA FAQ.

For example, the Magic can accept a player who's been signed to up to their trade exception + 100k.

 

Right

But if they expire July 1 and you can't S&T a guy until after July 1, then how do you use one in a S&T?

 

Also, do your figures include the options on players? For example, you have Hamilton at $5M for the Bulls. I think they're going to pay him only the $1M guaranteed him and let him walk. How does that affect the numbers?

 

I said through July. If they expired July 1, that would mean that someone was traded during the moratorium last year, which can't happen.

 

As a ground rule, I didn't use options for the numbers. I'm still studying a bunch of those (for instance, if he's only guaranteed for 1M, then it would subtract 4M) and will place those in in a more complete team profile. But this has the first batch of info (it's "Part Two" of the series...not the whole durned thing. )

 

I appreciate the work. It's quite valuable. I'm trying to grok it is all.

 

Just a guess, but I think that they know a big portion will be taken up with Ginobili (even if he gives a hometown discount). However, Bonner's contract is partially-guaranteed, and Diaw could opt out. There's another 7M or so right there.