RANK PLAYER POS. ORGANIZATION #AGE 51 Ross Detwiler LHP Washington Nationals TOP '07 LEVEL: *Majors 22 Detwiler is a polished lefty from Missouri State who should move quickly through the Nats' system, although the Nationals' decision to recall him in September was a bit enthusiastic (and shortsighted, since it put him on the 40-man roster sooner than necessary). Detwiler is tall and thin, but has broad shoulders and should be durable despite concerns about his slight build at the moment. His fastball is already above average at 90-94 and flashes plus, and his slider projects as an out pitch if he can stay on top of it consistently, giving it a sharp, late bite. He has a solid-average changeup with good arm speed to fill out his repertoire, as well as a show-me curve. He's a strike thrower with good feel, so while his ceiling is limited to mid-rotation duty, he's a high-probability prospect who should be in Washington's rotation soon. 52 James McDonald RHP Los Angeles Dodgers TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Jacksonville) 23 McDonald signed as a pitcher as a draft-and-follow prospect, hurt his arm, moved to the outfield, hurt his coaches by not hitting a lick and moved back to the mound, where he's hurt opposing hitters by racking up K's like there might be a run on the strikeout banks. McDonald is Clay Buchholz Lite: average fastball or slightly below, above-average curve and changeup, good control and feel for pitching. His curve gets swings and misses in the minors, but it's a bit of a slow roller and he'll have to use it more sparingly in the big leagues unless he can tighten its rotation. 53 Carlos Carrasco RHP Philadelphia Phillies TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Reading) 21 The Phillies' system is not strong, and Carrasco is the one legitimate above-average prospect in it at the moment. Carrasco's best attribute is his easy velocity, mostly 90-94 and touching 95 at times, with fringe-average command. His secondary stuff is a work in progress, with his short downer curveball ahead of his changeup, on which he slows his arm too much. Because his arm works well, it's possible to project him as someone who'll have three average pitches down the road, and he might pick up a few more miles an hour as he fills out or if he lengthens his stride a bit, all of which would make him a solid No. 3 starter in the majors. 54 Matt Dominguez 3B Florida Marlins TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Jamestown) 18 Dominguez is a solid offensive and defensive infielder with a chance to be a star in both aspects of the game. He's somewhat raw for a California product, but has a quick bat and good straightaway raw power. He tends to drift through his swing rather than gathering his weight and powering through the ball, something that can be fixed through instruction. At third, he has a plus arm and reads the ball well off the bat, and he projects as a Gold Glove-caliber defender down the road. 55 Jed Lowrie SS/2B Boston Red Sox TOP '07 LEVEL: AAA (Pawtucket) 23 Lowrie has transformed himself since his time as a second baseman at Stanford, where he put up excellent offensive stats with an extreme metal-bat swing and was below-average defensively. Now he's a capable hitter from both sides of the plate with a real (that means wood) bat, and he's good enough defensively to handle shortstop every day in the majors. Lowrie centers the ball extremely well -- the one thing that has carried over from college -- and takes a short path to the ball. He shows more strength in his swing from the right side, but his left-handed swing is very compact with good extension at the end, and he should be a legitimate switch-hitter in the majors. On defense, his range should be adequate at short, and his transfer on the double play is lightning-quick. He could step in right now and play short (or second) for a number of big league clubs, and he has to be putting pressure on the Sox to think about moving Julio Lugo. 56 Joey Votto 1B Cincinnati Reds TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors 24 Votto is similar to the player he'll eventually replace in Cincinnati, Scott Hatteberg, but with a bit more power. Votto's calling card is his plate discipline, as he's drawn at least 69 unintentional walks in four of his five full seasons in the pros. He has a max-effort swing that produces average to slightly above-average power, and while he stays back well on the ball, he has a hard time changing his swing once he's committed to a pitch. He's average defensively at first but looked somewhat Ryan Klesko-esque in a trial in left field last year. 57 Fautino de los Santos RHP Oakland A's TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Winston-Salem) 22 De los Santos was the potential star among the three players the A's received from the White Sox for Nick Swisher. He's a two-pitch pitcher with a 91-95 mph fastball with some late life and a hard breaking ball with a sharp 11-to-5 break. His command is below average, and he has a tendency to leave his front shoulder open, especially when throwing the breaking ball, and he doesn't have a solid third pitch. At worst, he projects as a power two-pitch reliever in a set-up or closer role, but he has a chance to mature into a top-of-the-rotation starter. 58 Justin Masterson RHP Boston Red Sox TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Portland) 23 Masterson has worked primarily as a starter in college and in the minors, but his future is in the bullpen. He's a two-pitch pitcher who comes from a low three-quarter slot, generating plus sink on a fastball that's 85-89 mph when he's pitching in the rotation but has been comfortably in the low 90s when he's relieved in the past. He has a tight low-80s slider with a short and very sharp break that gives him his best chance to miss bats. His changeup is well below average, and it's hard to turn a pitch like that over from his arm slot; as a result, lefties have hit him increasingly hard as he's moved up the ladder. He should appear in the Red Sox's pen this year. 59 Tim Alderson RHP San Francisco Giants TOP '07 LEVEL: Rookie (Ariz.) 19 Alderson's an odd bird, working from the stretch even with no one on base. His fastball is already solid-average at 90-94 mph, with more velocity to come down the road. He pounds the strike zone and shows good command. His best secondary pitch is a hard curveball with tight rotation and a late two-plane break, while his changeup is a ways off. Alderson comes at hitters from a low three-quarter slot, and his arm is very quick, so the ball pops out of his hand and gets in on hitters quickly. He has some minor mechanical issues that will require work, including a slightly stiff front leg and a tendency to throw across his body to get deep to his glove side, but nothing that would prevent him from becoming a No. 2 or 3 starter in the majors. 60 Eric Hurley RHP Texas Rangers TOP '07 LEVEL: AAA (Okla. City) 22 Hurley projects more as a two-pitch reliever than as a starter in the big leagues, although the Rangers will probably give him a shot in the rotation before they force a conversion. He has a fastball just above average, 91-94, touching 95, and a power slider with good tilt and depth. His delivery leaves a lot to be desired, as there's a fair amount of effort required and he doesn't get his lower half involved, and he has yet to develop an adequate third pitch to get lefties out consistently. He also has a tendency to get under the ball, which will lead to a lot of home runs in Arlington. The arm is live, he throws strikes and he works well to both sides of the plate, so he's going to have success in some role, but he'll need at least a third pitch to earn a spot in the rotation. 61 J.R. Towles C Houston Astros TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors 24 Towles has had little trouble hitting for average throughout his pro career, but it will be interesting to see what he does when consistently facing big league pitching. Towles sets up with a big, deep load and almost locks his lead elbow; as a result, his plate coverage isn't great and he struggles to reach the ball down, getting very long with an exaggerated finish just to reach balls in the lower third of the zone. He's a dead-pull hitter, which is a good thing for a right-handed bat in Houston's ballpark, but he'll have to show he can adjust to the ball away as well as down. His arm is fringe-average and he's an adequate plate blocker, but isn't plus in any aspect of his defense. Given his performance history, he should be at least an everyday catcher in the majors, but he's not a star and may settle in as a barely average regular. 62 Nick Weglarz LF Cleveland Indians TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Kinston) 20 Weglarz is still young and a good three or four years off, but he's showing signs of developing into a middle-of-the-order bat. Weglarz has a patient approach and works to get to a pitch he can drive, either to pull or hit to the opposite field. He has quick wrists and centers balls well, and generates some power through the natural loft in his swing, but needs to work on powering through the ball rather than striding first and then connecting. In left field he's a work in progress and may end up at first base, where developing that home run power will be more critical. 63 Brett Cecil LHP Toronto Blue Jays TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Auburn) 21 Cecil is one of the best pure-closer prospects in the minors, although it's not out of the question that Toronto could try to convert him to the rotation. Cecil has two plus pitches already in a 91-94 mph fastball with good bore and a sharp, diving 83-86 mph slider, and his curveball has good depth and isn't far from average already. His arm action is a bit long, but it's fluid and he repeats his delivery well in relief. He made two starts for Maryland last spring, going over 140 pitches in his first one -- gotta love college coaches -- and he does have the size most teams want to see in a starter. If he stays in the pen, he should move quickly and could debut in the majors this year. 64 Chris Marrero 1B Washington Nationals TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Potomac) 19 Marrero is a classic "stuck at first base" player -- can't play anywhere else and isn't a plus defender at first -- who will have to hit his way to the big leagues. His best tool is his power, both to pull and to the opposite field, but the rest of his game has holes. His bat is somewhat slow and his swing is long, making it questionable whether he'll be able to show power against better stuff in the high minors. His defense at first is adequate but won't be an asset. He's here because there's a good chance he hits 25-30 homers once he gets to the majors, but the rest of his skill set will keep him from being a star. 65 Felipe Paulino RHP Houston Astros TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors 24 A converted infielder, Paulino has reportedly hit triple digits in the past, and he'd probably do so again as a reliever, which is his ultimate role. Working as a starter, Paulino has a 93-94 mph four-seamer that's true but has some late life, allowing him to miss some bats in the upper half of the zone. His potential out pitch is a hard 12-to-6 curve from 76 to 81 mph, with a sharp, late, downward break. It's not a consistent pitch for him, and when he relies on his four-seamer too heavily, hitters can sit on it, making him homer-prone. In relief, however, Paulino should see a tick up in velocity and be able to work more effectively without a third pitch. 66 Tommy Hanson RHP Atlanta Braves TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Myrtle Beach) 21 Atlanta took Hanson out of Riverside Junior College in 2005, paying him over $300,000 to buy him out of a scholarship to Arizona State, and he's the best pitching prospect remaining in the Braves' system after the massive Mark Teixeira deal last summer. Hanson already runs his fastball up to 91-95 mph, but at a somewhat slight 6-foot-6, he still has projection left in his body. He also features an above-average curveball and an average change, while his stuff plays up because he has good deception in his delivery. His arm action is fluid and his command is improving. He's a few years off, although Atlanta has tended to promote pitchers quickly once they show that their command is good enough to handle the next level. 67 Aaron Poreda LHP Chicago White Sox TOP '07 LEVEL: Rookie (Great Falls) 21 Poreda is still a project, but he brings one undeniable tool to the table. Left-handers with plus velocity (93-97 consistently, with anecdotal reports of 98 plus) and excellent sink to generate ground balls are rare birds, making Poreda a very good value for a late first-round selection. His secondary stuff remains raw. He's messed around with a curveball and slider, with the latter showing more promise, and his low three-quarter arm slot has made it hard for him to master a changeup. He's big and can hold his velocity, but the White Sox should move him slowly to give him time to develop at least one -- preferably two -- average offspeed pitches so he can fulfill his promise as a No. 2 or 3 starter. 68 Kyle Blanks 1B San Diego Padres TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Lake Elsinore) 21 The Padres have been light on power-hitting prospects for several years now, preferring polished college hitters in the draft who bring more probability to the table but less upside. They snagged Kyle Blanks in the 42nd round in 2004 out of high school, and he exploded this year into their second-best offensive prospect. Blanks is strong and athletic at 6-foot-6; while he's limited to first base, he's more than playable there, but his ticket to the majors is his bat. He has a simple swing with good loft and powers through the ball, keeping his hips in almost perfect sync with his hands for maximum impact. Blanks' zone is big and he can get long when trying to cover pitches down, similar to Richie Sexson, who would be a good comparison for Blanks if the latter can improve his patience. 69 Chris Davis 3B Texas Rangers TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Frisco) 22 We're comfortably in one-big-skill territory in this section of the rankings, and Davis has -- you guessed it -- one big skill: raw power that grades out comfortably at 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Davis is extremely strong and powers balls out to right and right center with a pull-oriented approach. His plate discipline is weak and he's susceptible to even average offspeed stuff. His future at third is questionable, with a move to first the most likely outcome. 70 Ian Stewart 3B Colorado Rockies TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors 22 After his full-season debut Stewart looked like a No. 3 hitter with the potential to hit .300/.400/.550 when he reached his peak, but he's slid backward each year since, and now projects as more of a .280/.350/.440-type hitter who can contribute but isn't a star. Stewart has a lot of extra movement in his swing that limits his contact rate and robs him of some power before he reaches the ball, although he gets good extension when he squares a ball up. He's solid-average or better defensively at third and wouldn't be a drop-off in overall value from Garrett Atkins should the Rockies decide to trade their incumbent third baseman for other help. 71 Sean Gallagher RHP Chicago Cubs TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors 22 Gallagher could step in as the fifth starter right now for most noncontending clubs, and has a good chance to end up a solid No. 4 in the majors. He works with a three-pitch mix: a 92-94 mph four-seamer that's a little too true, a tight 12-to-6 curve that gets swings and misses for him and a solid-average changeup with some fading action. His control is above average but his command is below, and despite having a quick arm there's some effort in his delivery that may hold his command back long term. 72 Fernando Perez CF Tampa Bay Rays TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Montgomery) 24 Perez has a heck of a story -- a high school soccer star and Columbia grad who had limited baseball experience when he signed, but who has shown very rapid improvement in some of the most difficult areas of the game, including pitch recognition (where he's already plus) and reading balls off the bat (still needs work, but getting better). Perez has a quick bat and something of an inside-out swing geared toward contact over power, and he's a 70 runner who still needs to learn the art of base stealing. Because he gets on base and can play a passable center field already, he projects as a solid leadoff guy, but despite his age there's a chance he could improve beyond that. 73 Mitch Boggs RHP St. Louis Cardinals TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Springfield) 24 Boggs could pitch in the majors right now as a reliever, although the Cardinals have been developing him as a starter due to his durable frame and ability to hold his stuff through 90-plus pitches. Boggs has a plus pitch in his 93-96 mph fastball and a future-plus pitch in his sharp downer breaking ball at 82-84 mph. His fastball command, especially to his glove side, needs work and may just result from a little herky-jerky movement early in his delivery. More troubling is that for some reason he has struggled to miss bats despite his solid stuff, which would portend a move to the bullpen long term unless he finds a way to finish hitters off. 74 Henry Sosa RHP San Francisco Giants TOP '07 LEVEL: A (San Jose) 22 Sosa has a live arm in a system that now has more than its share of live arms. He has a promising three-pitch mix, sitting at 92-94 and touching 97 on his fastball and sporting a power curveball in the mid-80s and a solid-average changeup with good arm speed. His control is poor and his feel for pitching is weak. He's too happy to try to overpower guys with heat rather than use his secondary stuff to put guys away. His delivery is odd with a dice-roller arm action and problems rushing his arm through, neither of which is conducive to good fastball command. He shouldn't move up quickly, but if he's given time he has a chance to be a No. 2 or 3 starter. 75 Jeremy Hellickson RHP Tampa Bay Rays TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Columbus) 20 Hellickson has outstanding command of a solid-average fastball at 90-94 mph, but lacks a plus secondary pitch to allow him to continue to rack up strikeouts at higher levels. He comes at hitters from a low three-quarter slot that makes the ball appear very late to right-handed hitters. Hellickson was effective against lefties in 2007, but he'll have to improve his changeup (which he turns over well but which comes in too hard) to keep that up at higher levels. His breaking ball is slurvy and inconsistent, but he will throw some with a sharper, two-plane break. Right-handers with good command of average fastballs pitch in the big leagues in the backs of rotations, so for Hellickson to be more than a No. 4 or 5 starter, he'll have to dial up one of those secondary pitches.
