<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>1. Daisuke Matsuzaka - SP - Age: 26 - Throws: R - Status: In Negotiations with BostonMatsuzaka is the best free agent starter on the market, a true rarity in that he's hitting the market at age 26 while most free agent pitchers are in their 30s. On the other hand, Matsuzaka's not a true free agent due to the posting system that leaves him only able to negotiate with one U.S. club, and not even one of his choosing.Matsuzaka brings at least two plus pitches to the table: a hard, "rising" fastball (hold your e-mails -- I've read "The Physics of Baseball") in the 92-95 mph range; and his famous slider, an out pitch breaking ball with a hard, filthy break downward. He also throws a splitter that's at least a solid-average pitch, with good bottom and a nice separation from his fastball; he uses it more against left-handed hitters than against righties. Like a lot of Japanese starters, Matsuzaka has an exaggerated delivery with a big twist, giving him a lot of deception that will make him harder for American hitters to pick up, at least at first.Matsuzaka does come with question marks. One is that he uses his slider pretty heavily rather than pitching off his fastball. As a result, he hangs his fair share of breaking balls. His new employers may be surprised to see him give up a few more homers than they anticipated. Matsuzaka's workload has drawn scrutiny, but a number of teams are more concerned with the fact that he has always thrown on five days' rest, rather than the four days' rest that MLB starters receive. That said, signing Matsuzaka will be a big splash for his new team and will help increase their popularity -- and perhaps revenue -- in the Japanese market, meaning that he'll likely make the most cash of any free agent starter this winter. 2. Jason Schmidt - SP - Age: 33 - Throws: R - Status: UnsignedSchmidt is widely assumed to be headed to a West Coast team, with the Mariners considered the front-runners. He's one of only three starters in the market (Barry Zito and Matsuzaka are the other two) with actual experience as a No. 1 starter, and has a reputation as a "big-game" pitcher, with a 3.06 ERA in five postseason starts.Schmidt's bread-and-butter pitch is a plus four-seamer he throws up in the zone and blows right by hitters at 92-95 mph. He pitches off the fastball, with outstanding command (likely due to how well he repeats his delivery), and the velocity comes remarkably easy for him. His reliance on the fastball is also his primary weakness, because he can be beaten when he leaves one of those high fastballs a little too close to the heart of the strike zone. He also throws a solid fading changeup with good arm speed, and a low-80s slider with a tight, downward break, although his command of the breaking ball is questionable.Schmidt also comes in with a slightly mixed medical history. He's had on-and-off back trouble, missing one start in September as a result. His 2005 season started slowly due to a shoulder strain, and ended poorly due to a September groin injury. He's also 34 with a lot of mileage on him. 3. Roger Clemens - SP - Age: 44 - Throws: R - Status: UnsignedThere are a number of future Hall of Famers in this class, most of whom are considering only a small number of teams for their next contracts. Clemens is widely expected to take the spring off and come back for the last three or four months of 2007. Given how strongly he finished 2006, there's every reason to expect him to find a number of teams ready and waiting for him.On the mound, the greatest pitcher of my lifetime throws a two-seamer in the upper 80s and a four-seamer in the low 90s that touches 94, and he mixes in a slider, a curve and an out-pitch splitter in the mid-80s with good bottom. His command is off the charts, he has an outstanding feel for pitching, and he's been pretty durable for a guy his age. I imagine there will be more teams inquiring about his services than there are teams for whom he's willing to play. 4. Andy Pettitte - SP - Age: 34 - Throws: L - Status: UnsignedLet's assume for a moment that the 34-year-old Pettitte isn't going to retire, and instead chooses to exploit a market thin on left-handed starters. After the All-Star break in 2006, Pettitte was among the best starters in the National League, throwing 93.1 innings, giving up 88 hits and nine homers, walking 27 against 86 strikeouts, and posting a 2.80 ERA. That's a $10 million-plus pitcher in this baseball economy.Pettitte's primary pitch is an 88-89 mph cut fastball, touching 90 on occasion, that is one of the best in the game. He runs it in hard on the hands of right-handed hitters. He'll mix in a good 11-to-5 curve, at 72-76 mph with a very late break, and even an occasional slider (backdooring it to righties, sweeping it to lefties) and a four-seamer (when he just needs a strike), and he pounds the strike zone with all of his pitches. He's thrown over 200 innings in three of the last four years, and was ridiculously good in 2005 and (as mentioned above) the last half of 2006. He'll be 35 in June, so a contract that's short in years and longer on annual salary would make sense, but he has a good case to claim he's the best left-handed starter on this market. 5. Mike Mussina - SP - Age: 37 - Throws: R - Status: Signed with New York YankeesMussina is expected to re-up with the Yankees, but if he were to explore the market, he would find solid interest. He's a plus-command, plus-control guy who also has a solid-average fastball and an actual out pitch, one of the few true knuckle-curves thrown by big-league pitchers. The pitch (sometimes called a "spike" curveball for its extremely sharp, late break) is difficult to throw for strikes, but Mussina does so, and it will keep him employed as long as he can command it. He's also been durable throughout his career, although some arm fatigue did slow him down in 2005.6. Ted Lilly - SP - Age: 30 - Throws: L - Status: UnsignedLilly is Barry Zito without the name recognition, and with a little more stuff. Lilly throws four pitches, with his fringe-average fastball (87-89 mph) probably his worst pitch. He has a plus curve, similar to Zito's in shape, with good depth and two-plane break. His changeup may be even better than his curve, because he maintains his arm speed extremely well and gets some fade on the pitch. He also throws a slider in the low 80s that, while inconsistent, is also plus at times, and on some nights it's his best secondary pitch.On the downside, like Zito, Lilly has below-average control and is susceptible to the long ball. He'd be a much better fit in a bigger ballpark than Toronto's, which has tended to be homer-friendly over the past few years. He's also had minor arm trouble several times over the years, including a never-identified shoulder issue that cost him eight or nine starts in 2005 and caused him to post the worst ERA of his career. Durability is well-compensated in the free agent market, so Lilly won't see Zito dollars. But should he stay healthy, he's a good bet to outpitch Zito over the next three to four years. 7. Gil Meche - SP - Age: 28 - Throws: R - Status: UnsignedMeche is attracting attention as one of the best of the second-tier starting pitchers among this free agent class, and he looks like the type of pitcher who'd benefit from a change of scenery.Meche's stuff grades out at or near the top of this group. His fastball is a straight, hard four-seamer in the 92-95 range; he occasionally gets a little arm-side run on it, but it's mostly true, and he succeeds (and sometimes fails) by putting it by guys up in the zone. His best secondary pitch is a tight, 12-to-6 curve that's best when he keeps it down and throws it with a shorter, tighter break. He also has a fringy changeup and a cutter-slider that he doesn't command well. His control is fringe-average as well. He's a pitching coach's dream: a guy with good stuff, not-awful command, and a number of seemingly minor mechanical problems (such as rushing through his delivery) that can make a coach or scout believe the kid is on the verge of a breakthrough.Teams that bid on Meche are going to end up bidding on his upside; his performances to date have not been good, with far too much contact for a guy with this kind of stuff. Hitters do seem to see the ball well out of his hand, and he leaves too many fastballs up around hitters' belts and too many curves that hang in the zone a split-second too long. But he may be the best pure upside play among right-handed starters on this market. 8. Barry Zito - SP - Age: 28 - Throws: L - Status: UnsignedZito has long been considered the prize starter on the 2006-07 free agent market; he's one of only two available Cy Young Award winners (with Greg Maddux), he's left-handed, and he's put up great numbers while throwing most of his innings in pitchers' parks with great outfield defenses behind him.Zito needs to pitch somewhat backwards to be successful. His fastball is below-average, usually around 84-86 mph and occasionally touching 88, with a little run but no sink. He has two plus secondary pitches: a changeup with good fade and tail, a pitch on which he maintains his arm speed extremely well, and his famous curveball, with a huge, two-plane break, a pitch he can throw for strikes when he needs to or throw down and away against left-handed batters to finish them off. What Zito brings to the table is durability; he's never had a major injury and has topped 210 innings in every full season he's spent in the big leagues. That sort of predictability is valuable, especially in a market full of guys with serious injuries in their recent histories.Zito is a third or fourth starter with the reputation of a one or a two. In fact, over the last three years, he's struggled badly when facing the two premier offenses in the AL, posting a 6.59 ERA against Boston and the Yankees while walking 47 men and allowing 18 homers in 83.3 innings. His control is below-average; only Daniel Cabrera has walked more batters in the last two years than Zito has. And should Zito's stuff slip at all, he becomes a fifth starter or a guy who needs to head to the National League, the current destination for asylum-seekers who fear AL persecution of their fringy fastballs. 9. Randy Wolf - SP - Age: 30 - Throws: L - Status: UnsignedWolf is intriguing as an upside play, especially in a world where Mark Mulder and his hip/back/shoulder problems are getting all sorts of attention as an upside play that's stunningly lacking in upside. (Seriously, the guy just had shoulder surgery, and he hasn't missed bats since 2002. He got a brief boost from moving to the weaker league and getting with Dave Duncan in '05, both of which go away if he goes to an AL team. If Mulder gets a guaranteed base of over $500,000, it's a bad investment.)As for Wolf, his performance in 2006 was poor, but was also typical of a pitcher who came back quickly from Tommy John surgery. His stuff was fine, but his command and control were lousy. His fastball was largely 88-89 mph, touching 92, although it was somewhat straight. He has a plus-plus breaking ball, reminiscent of Zito's but with better depth, and he commands the pitch extremely well, throwing it for a strike when he needs to yet working it down or away to lefties when he's ahead in the count.Even this year, Wolf was death on lefties, holding them to just three hits in 35 at-bats. He also has a circle-change in the low-80s that's a weapon for him against righties, but it doesn't offer much separation from his fastball, and it looks to me like righties can adjust to it too easily. Wolf also hides the ball well during his delivery, creating some deception that can help his fastball play up a tick.There are question marks; it's not a guarantee that he'll regain the command and control he had before surgery, for one thing. He throws slightly across his body, which could be a harbinger of future arm issues. But it makes a lot more sense to go for an upside play like Wolf who's healthy now and who pitched at the end of the year, even if he costs you more up front, than to go for the guy with the chronic health condition and the inferior results. 10. Justin Speier - RP - Age: 33 - Throws: R - Status: UnsignedSpeier is the best setup man on the free agent market this winter, and with several teams looking for a proven closer on a market that doesn't really have one, Speier is going to be an attractive option for a team that wants to elevate him into that role. There's nothing in his history to indicate he can't handle the psychological aspects of the closer role; his success in several years of setup work in Colorado would indicate that he can handle it.Speier is a three-pitch reliever with good command of all three. He has a low-90s fastball with a little run but no sink; a tight slider with good tilt; and a splitter that he has improved to the point that it's a very effective weapon against left-handed hitters. When he's on, he keeps everything at or just above hitters' knees, garnering strikes and some bad swings. His fastball is flat, however, and he'll give up a lot of home runs if he has to pitch in the upper half of the zone. His arm action is a little long, but he repeats it well. I wouldn't hesitate to pay Speier more than setup money and try him out as a closer, rather than overpay in dollars or assets to acquire a lesser pitcher who happens to have the "closer" label.</div>
Once they tried argueing that Proven Bums like Ted Lilly and Gil Meche were better then Barry Zito, the more I realized that whoever wrote this article is clueless.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AdropOFvenom @ Nov 18 2006, 03:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Once they tried argueing that Proven Bums like Ted Lilly and Gil Meche were better then Barry Zito, the more I realized that whoever wrote this article is clueless.</div>Lol.It was Keith Law BTW. Before Law was a writer for ESPN, he was the Assistant GM in Toronto.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jon_Vilma @ Nov 18 2006, 11:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AdropOFvenom @ Nov 18 2006, 03:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Once they tried argueing that Proven Bums like Ted Lilly and Gil Meche were better then Barry Zito, the more I realized that whoever wrote this article is clueless.</div>Lol.It was Keith Law BTW. Before Law was a writer for ESPN, he was the Assistant GM in Toronto.</div>Steve Phillips was a GM, that doesn't make him intelligent. Honestly, where is the arguement that a pitcher with a 59-58 record, a 4.60 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and a .250 BAA in his career is better then somebody with a 102-63 record, a 3.55 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .232 BAA. They're arguement is what? That he walks too many people? Well, Ted Lilly walked 81 in 181.2 Innings last year as opposed to Barry Zito's 99 in 221.0 Innings. They both average an almost identical BB/9 ratio. Or is Zito 8th because he doesn't have overpowering Stuff? Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and many other pitchers never had overpowering stuff either, and they're Hall-of-famers. Im not saying Zito is a hall-of-famer, but too many people fall in love with a 94 mph fastball when evaluating talent.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AdropOFvenom @ Nov 19 2006, 09:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jon_Vilma @ Nov 18 2006, 11:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AdropOFvenom @ Nov 18 2006, 03:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Once they tried argueing that Proven Bums like Ted Lilly and Gil Meche were better then Barry Zito, the more I realized that whoever wrote this article is clueless.</div>Lol.It was Keith Law BTW. Before Law was a writer for ESPN, he was the Assistant GM in Toronto.</div>Steve Phillips was a GM, that doesn't make him intelligent. Honestly, where is the arguement that a pitcher with a 59-58 record, a 4.60 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and a .250 BAA in his career is better then somebody with a 102-63 record, a 3.55 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .232 BAA. They're arguement is what? That he walks too many people? Well, Ted Lilly walked 81 in 181.2 Innings last year as opposed to Barry Zito's 99 in 221.0 Innings. They both average an almost identical BB/9 ratio. Or is Zito 8th because he doesn't have overpowering Stuff? Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and many other pitchers never had overpowering stuff either, and they're Hall-of-famers. Im not saying Zito is a hall-of-famer, but too many people fall in love with a 94 mph fastball when evaluating talent.</div>That's pobably it. But that's like saying Wang isn't a top pitcher because he doesn't throw the heat. I didn't say I agreed with the list, I was just doing you guys a favor since most of you probably don't have ESPN Insider.
