Ultimate Game Breakdown: Players: Pistons 104 Bulls 98 in Detroit Dec. 23 2008

Discussion in 'Detroit Pistons' started by tremaine, Jan 2, 2009.

  1. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    REAL PLAYER RATINGS (QUALITY) FOR THIS GAME
    CHICAGO BULLS QUALITY
    Tyrus Thomas, PF 1.069
    Andres Nocioni, SF 0.806
    Derrick Rose, PG 0.714
    Larry Hughes, SF 0.595
    Ben Gordon, SG 0.585
    Luol Deng, SF 0.371
    Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.179
    Joakim Noah, C 0.141

    DETROIT PISTONS QUALITY
    Rodney Stuckey, PG 1.198
    Tayshaun Prince, SF 0.833
    Antonio McDyess, PF 0.800
    Jason Maxiell, PF 0.703
    Allen Iverson, SG 0.683
    Rasheed Wallace, C 0.532
    Richard Hamilton, SG 0.442
    Arron Afflalo, SG 0.347

    SCALE FOR RPR (QUALITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
    Historic Superstar for this game 1.400 and more
    Superstar 1.050 to 1.399
    Star 0.800 to 1.050
    Very Good 0.650 to 0.799
    Major Role Player 0.525 to 0.649
    Role Player 0.450 to 0.524
    Minor Role Player 0.400 to 0.449
    Very Minor Role Player or Very Important Defender 0.350 to 0.399
    Poor Game or Extremely Importand Defender 0.275 to 0.349
    Very Poor Game Regardless of Defending 0.200 to 0.274
    Disaster Game Regardless of Defending minus infinity to 0.199

    ****************************************************
    REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION (QUANTITY) IN THIS GAME
    CHICAGO BULLS QUANTITY
    Tyrus Thomas, PF 36.35
    Andres Nocioni, SF 25.00
    Larry Hughes, SF 22.60
    Ben Gordon, SG 19.90
    Derrick Rose, PG 15.00
    Luol Deng, SF 12.60
    Thabo Sefolosha, SG 3.75
    Joakim Noah, C 2.40

    DETROIT PISTONS QUANTITY
    Rodney Stuckey, PG 50.30
    Tayshaun Prince, SF 32.50
    Antonio McDyess, PF 21.60
    Allen Iverson, SG 16.40
    Rasheed Wallace, C 15.95
    Richard Hamilton, SG 14.60
    Jason Maxiell, PF 10.55
    Arron Afflalo, SG 10.40

    SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
    FOR STARTING PLAYERS
    Only Some Players Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 40.0 and more
    Massive and Memorable Game 36.0 to 39.9
    Huge Game 32.0 to 35.9
    Very Big Game 28.0 to 31.9
    Big Game 24.0 to 27.9
    Typical Average Game 20.0 to 23.9
    Somewhat Below Average Game 16.0 to 19.9
    Way Below Average Game 12.0 to 15.9
    Bad Game 9.0 to 11.9
    Really Bad Game 5.0 to 8.9
    Total Disaster minus infinity to 4.9

    SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
    FOR NON-STARTING PLAYERS
    Only Some Non-Starters Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 33.0 and more
    Massive and Memorable Game 29.0 to 32.9
    Huge Game 25.0 to 28.9
    Very Big Game 21.0 to 24.9
    Big Game 17.0 to 20.9
    Typical Non-Starter Game 12.0 to 16.9
    Below Average Even For a Non-Starter 9.0 to 11.9
    Way Below Average Even For a Non-Starter or Limited Minutes 6.0 to 8.9
    Bad Game Even for a Non-Starter or Very Limited Minutes 3.0 to 5.9
    Disaster: Nothing Much to Report minus infinity to 1.9

    THE HIGHEST QUALITY PLAYERS IN THIS GAME


    [​IMG]

    CHICAGO BULLS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
    SuperStar during minutes on the court: Tyrus Thomas
    Very Good during minutes on the court: Andres Nocioni
    Very Good during minutes on the court: Derrick Rose

    [​IMG]

    DETROIT PISTONS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
    Superstar during minutes on the court: Rodney Stuckey
    Star during minutes on the court: Tayshaun Prince
    Star during minutes on the court: Antonio McDyess
    Very Good during minutes on the court: Jason Maxiell
    Very Good during minutes on the court: Allen Iverson

    THE GREATEST POWER PERFORMERS OF THIS GAME


    [​IMG]

    CHICAGO BULLS POWER PERFORMERS
    Only Some Non-Starting Players Can Ever Fly This High, and Not Very Often: Tyrus Thomas
    Very Big Game: Larry Hughes
    Big Game: Andres Nocioni

    [​IMG]

    DETROIT PISTONS POWER PERFORMERS
    Only Some Players Can Ever Fly This High, and Not Very Often: Rodney Stuckey
    Huge Game: Tayshaun Prince
    Very Big Game: Antonio McDyess

    USER GUIDE FOR THIS TYPE OF REPORT (Last updated December 8 2008)
    This is a "just the important facts please, and give them to me quick" type of report. I will in some cases do a very limited amount of commentary at the bottom of this type of report, but it will really be just notes for commentary that will be elsewhere in the near future.

    In many cases there will be no comments at all. Most of the commentaries I do are in "Game/Team/League Reports" and in Fast Breaks".

    ULTIMATE GAME BREAKDOWN--PLAYERS REPORT EXPLAINED
    With an Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players report, you can see very rapidly who was most responsible for the winning or the losing of the game. Then someone like me can easily write a separate game report which explains how things might have worked out better for a team, or why things worked out just about as well as possible, as the case may be.

    The Real Player Ratings formula has been very carefully and accurately tweaked again and is currently as follows:

    POSITIVE FACTORS
    Points 1.00 (at par)
    Number of 3-Pt FGs Made 1.00
    Number of 2-Pt FGs Made 0.60
    Number of FTs Made 0.00

    Assists 1.75

    Offensive Rebounds 1.15
    Defensive Rebounds 1.25
    Blocks 1.60
    Steals 2.15

    NEGATIVE FACTORS
    3-Pt FGs Missed -1.00
    2-Pt FGs Missed -0.85
    FTs Missed -0.85

    Turnovers -2.00
    Personal Fouls -0.80

    ACTUAL COMBINED AWARD OR PENALTY BY TYPE OF SHOT
    3-Pointer Made 4.00
    2-Pointer Made 2.60
    Free Throw Made 1.00
    3-Pointer Missed -1.00
    2-Pointer Missed -0.85
    Free Throw Missed -0.85

    ZERO POINTS: PERCENTAGES BELOW WHICH THERE IS A NEGATIVE NET RESULT
    3-Pointer 0 score % 0.200
    2-Pointer 0 score % 0.246
    1-Pointer 0 score % 0.459

    ASSISTS VERSUS TURNOVERS ZERO POINT
    Assist/Turnover Ratio That Yields 0 Net Points: 1.143

    QUALITY (RPR) AND QUANTITY (RPP)-AN EXPLANATION
    RPR game reports show for each player the RPR (Real Player Rating) which tells you how good a player did (all the good things minus all the bad things) out on the court per unit of time. The RPP (Real Player Production) report tells you how much in total (the sum of the of the good things minus the sum of the bad things) a player did out on the court.

    Many and maybe most sports watchers and an unknown but probably disturbingly large number of sports managers make the mistakes of exaggerating the importance of quantity and overlooking to some extent quality. These reports allow you to expand your horizons. These reports put quantity and quality side by side, which is extremely valuable, because both are roughly equally important in explaining accurately why and how the game turned out the way it did.

    Players who over many games consistently have higher RPR (quality) but lower RPP (quantity) results are in many cases not getting enough playing time. Players that over many games consistently have lower RPR (quality) but higher RPP (quantity) results are in many cases getting too much playing time.

    The exceptional cases are very often going to be players who are either truly outstanding defenders or truly bad defenders. This is because the one and only thing that is not counted, because it is impossible to calculate it, is the number of shots that a player prevents from being scores. Investigation has to date revealed that, apparently, no one has even attempted, for the NBA, rough estimates of the actual value of each player's defending, in terms of number or percentage of scores prevented, or in terms of number or percentage of possessions made worthless.

    Over the coming year, I am going to be working to see if it is possible to use some combination of advanced statistics that are tracked on certain internet sites as an accurate proxy for the number of shots and/or for the number of possessions ruined by a defender.

    Another exception. where it is really alright when it looks like a player is playing too much, will be if a team has a point guard who has many more turnovers than the average point guard has. Because the point guard is so important, a good coach has to play his best guard who can make plays at the position for a full set of minutes every game, pretty much regardless of how many turnovers that player makes. If you take out your designated point guard due to "too many turnovers," it's most often going to be sort of like cutting your foot off because you have a bad case of athletes foot!
     

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