Ultimate Game Breakdown: Players: Pistons 88 Clippers 87 in Los Angeles Jan. 4 2009

Discussion in 'Detroit Pistons' started by tremaine, Jan 15, 2009.

  1. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    REAL PLAYER RATINGS (QUALITY) FOR THIS GAME
    DETROIT PISTONS QUALITY
    Antonio McDyess, PF 0.833
    Kwame Brown, C 0.695
    Rodney Stuckey, PG 0.656
    Tayshaun Prince, SF 0.643
    Allen Iverson, SG 0.602
    Amir Johnson, PF 0.530
    Jason Maxiell, PF 0.459
    Arron Afflalo, SG 0.257

    LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS QUALITY
    Eric Gordon, SG 0.786
    Marcus Camby, C 0.783
    DeAndre Jordan, C 0.575
    Steve Novak, SF 0.526
    Mardy Collins, PG 0.476
    Brian Skinner, PF 0.331
    Al Thornton, SF 0.261

    SCALE FOR RPR (QUALITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
    Historic Superstar for this game 1.300 and more
    Superstar 1.025 1.299
    Star 0.825 1.024
    Very Good 0.675 0.824
    Major Role Player 0.550 0.674
    Role Player 0.475 0.549
    Minor Role Player 0.425 0.474
    Very Minor Role Player or Very Important Defender 0.350 0.424
    Poor Game or Extremely Importand Defender 0.275 0.349
    Very Poor Game Regardless of Defending 0.200 0.274
    Disaster Game Regardless of Defending and less 0.199

    ****************************************************
    REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION (QUANTITY) IN THIS GAME
    DETROIT PISTONS QUANTITY
    Rodney Stuckey, PG 28.20
    Tayshaun Prince, SF 26.35
    Allen Iverson, SG 25.30
    Antonio McDyess, PF 19.15
    Kwame Brown, C 13.20
    Amir Johnson, PF 12.20
    Jason Maxiell, PF 7.35
    Arron Afflalo, SG 6.95

    LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS QUANTITY
    Eric Gordon, SG 34.60
    Marcus Camby, C 32.90
    Mardy Collins, PG 20.00
    Steve Novak, SF 15.25
    Al Thornton, SF 10.45
    DeAndre Jordan, C 10.35
    Brian Skinner, PF 5.95

    SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
    FOR STARTING PLAYERS
    Only Some Players Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 40.0 and more
    Massive and Memorable Game 36.0 to 39.9
    Huge Game 32.0 to 35.9
    Very Big Game 28.0 to 31.9
    Big Game 24.0 to 27.9
    Typical Average Game 20.0 to 23.9
    Somewhat Below Average Game 16.0 to 19.9
    Way Below Average Game 12.0 to 15.9
    Bad Game 9.0 to 11.9
    Really Bad Game 5.0 to 8.9
    Total Disaster minus infinity to 4.9

    SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
    FOR NON-STARTING PLAYERS
    Only Some Non-Starters Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 33.0 and more
    Massive and Memorable Game 29.0 to 32.9
    Huge Game 25.0 to 28.9
    Very Big Game 21.0 to 24.9
    Big Game 17.0 to 20.9
    Typical Non-Starter Game 12.0 to 16.9
    Below Average Even For a Non-Starter 9.0 to 11.9
    Way Below Average Even For a Non-Starter or Limited Minutes 6.0 to 8.9
    Bad Game Even for a Non-Starter or Very Limited Minutes 3.0 to 5.9
    Disaster: Nothing Much to Report minus infinity to 1.9

    THE HIGHEST QUALITY PLAYERS IN THIS GAME


    [​IMG]

    DETROIT PISTONS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
    Star during minutes on the court: Antonio McDyess
    Very Good during minutes on the court: Kwame Brown
    Very Good during minutes on the court: Rodney Stuckey
    Very Good during minutes on the court: Tayshaun Prince
    Very Good during minutes on the court: Allen Iverson


    [​IMG]

    LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
    Star during minutes on the court: Marcus Camby
    Star during minutes on the court: Eric Gordon

    THE GREATEST POWER PERFORMERS OF THIS GAME


    [​IMG]

    DETROIT PISTONS POWER PERFORMERS
    Very Big Game: Rodney Stuckey
    Big Game: Tayshaun Prince
    Big Game: Allen Iverson
    Big Game: Antonio McDyess

    [​IMG]

    LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS POWER PERFORMERS
    Huge Game: Eric Gordon
    Huge Game: Marcus Camby
    Big Game: Mardy Collins

    USER GUIDE FOR THIS TYPE OF REPORT (Last updated December 8 2008)
    This is a "just the important facts please, and give them to me quick" type of report. I will in some cases do a very limited amount of commentary at the bottom of this type of report, but it will really be just notes for commentary that will be elsewhere in the near future.

    In many cases there will be no comments at all. Most of the commentaries I do are in "Game/Team/League Reports" and in Fast Breaks".

    With an Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players report, you can see very rapidly who was most responsible for the winning or the losing of the game. Then someone, including me, can easily write a separate game report which explains how things might have worked out better for a team, or why things worked out just about as well as possible, as the case may be.

    Only players who played at least 7 minutes are included in these reports. Any player who plays for only one half of one quarter (6 minutes) or less is not included since he didn't play for long enough to be fairly compared with the other players.

    The Real Player Ratings formula has been very carefully and accurately tweaked again and is currently as follows:

    POSITIVE FACTORS
    Points 1.00 (at par)
    Number of 3-Pt FGs Made 1.00
    Number of 2-Pt FGs Made 0.60
    Number of FTs Made 0.00

    Assists 1.75

    Offensive Rebounds 1.15
    Defensive Rebounds 1.25
    Blocks 1.60
    Steals 2.15

    NEGATIVE FACTORS
    3-Pt FGs Missed -1.00
    2-Pt FGs Missed -0.85
    FTs Missed -0.85

    Turnovers -2.00
    Personal Fouls -0.80

    ACTUAL COMBINED AWARD OR PENALTY BY TYPE OF SHOT
    3-Pointer Made 4.00
    2-Pointer Made 2.60
    Free Throw Made 1.00
    3-Pointer Missed -1.00
    2-Pointer Missed -0.85
    Free Throw Missed -0.85

    ZERO POINTS: PERCENTAGES BELOW WHICH THERE IS A NEGATIVE NET RESULT
    3-Pointer 0 score % 0.200
    2-Pointer 0 score % 0.246
    1-Pointer 0 score % 0.459

    ASSISTS VERSUS TURNOVERS ZERO POINT
    Assist/Turnover Ratio That Yields 0 Net Points: 1.143

    QUALITY (RPR) AND QUANTITY (RPP)-AN EXPLANATION
    RPR game reports show for each player the RPR (Real Player Rating) which tells you how good a player did (all the good things minus all the bad things) out on the court per unit of time. The RPP (Real Player Production) report tells you how much in total (the sum of the of the good things minus the sum of the bad things) a player did out on the court.

    Many and maybe most sports watchers and an unknown but probably disturbingly large number of sports managers make the mistakes of exaggerating the importance of quantity and overlooking to some extent quality. These reports allow you to expand your horizons. These reports put quantity and quality side by side, which is extremely valuable, because both are roughly equally important in explaining accurately why and how the game turned out the way it did.

    Players who over many games consistently have higher RPR (quality) but lower RPP (quantity) results are in many cases not getting enough playing time. Players that over many games consistently have lower RPR (quality) but higher RPP (quantity) results are in many cases getting too much playing time.

    The exceptional cases are very often going to be players who are either truly outstanding defenders or truly bad defenders. This is because the one and only thing that is not counted, because it is impossible to calculate it, is the number of shots that a player prevents from being scores. Investigation has to date revealed that, apparently, no one has even attempted, for the NBA, rough estimates of the actual value of each player's defending, in terms of number or percentage of scores prevented, or in terms of number or percentage of possessions made worthless.

    Over the coming year, I am going to be working to see if it is possible to use some combination of advanced statistics that are tracked on certain internet sites as an accurate proxy for the number of shots and/or for the number of possessions ruined by a defender.

    Another exception. where it is really alright when it looks like a player is playing too much, will be if a team has a point guard who has many more turnovers than the average point guard has. Because the point guard is so important, a good coach has to play his best guard who can make plays at the position for a full set of minutes every game, pretty much regardless of how many turnovers that player makes. If you take out your designated point guard due to "too many turnovers," it's most often going to be sort of like cutting your foot off because you have a bad case of athletes foot!
     

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