Well over the last couple of days I've been reading up on past NBA drafts. There are quite a few websites mentioning draft busts and draft steals. I think it's a really interesting subject so I was wondering what everyone else thinks. What defines a draft bust or draft steal? Should all players drafted in the first round turn out to be average or better players? What about the second round? Are all second round draftees expected to be average players and/or benchman? Here's what a lot of people seem to use to rate a players performance in context to their draft number: - Hype (Did the player live up to the hype) - Stats (How does the player compare to other players in the NBA) - Comparison (To players drafted above and below them in the same draft) Here's a list of a few players considered by many as draft busts and why they're considered busts: - Sam Bowie: Bowie was drafted before Michael Jordan. He was also frequently injured, averaging 10.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.78 blocks per game in his career. Not bad statistics but maybe not for a 2nd pick? - Michael Olowokandi: The Kandi-Man. Drafted #1 in the 1998 NBA draft. His career never really took off although one season he averaged 11.1 ppg, 8.9 RPG and 1.8 bpg. Not bad stats if you ask me. He was drafted before Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison and Mike Bibby. They're all considered better players , but is Olowokandi really a bust? Sure the Clippers could've a better player, but O isn't terrible. - Robert Traylor: Drafted #6 by the Dallas Mavericks in 1998. I can see why people consider Traylor a bust. He has career averages 4.8 ppg and 3.7 rpg in 14.3 mpg. Nothing special, something you could expect from second round picks and rookies. He was also traded to the Bucks for Dirk Nowitzki who turned out to be a superstar. - DeSagana Diop: Drafted #8 in the 2001 NBA Draft, Diop has done nothing in the NBA averaging 1.7 ppg and 2.8 rpg in 11.7 mpg through his career. This year he is averaging 4.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg, and 2.2 ppg in 17.7 mpg. Diop was one of those high schoolers jumping into the draft way too early. He'll probably never get better. Drafted before Joe Johnson, Richard Jefferson, Troy Murphy, Tony Parker and Jamaal Tinsley. - Rodney White: Drafted #9 in the 2001 NBA Draft. He has career averages of 7.1 ppg and 2.2 rpg. Hasn't really done much in his career, currently doesn't play for a team. Drafted before Rich Jefferson, Troy Murphy, Tony Parker and Jamaal Tinsley as well as others. There are many many others, but those are just a few of the ones that interested me. Now I want to examine some players who may be considered draft busts and maybe not? These players are kind of special cases perhaps, or maybe they're not exactly busts? - Darko Milic: Imfamous Milicic has averaged 1.4 ppg and 1.2 RPG in 3 seasons. He was drafted before Carmelo, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. I guess most people consider him a bust because he has such low averages and in comparison he is terrible compared to the players drafted after him. - Joe Smith: Drafted #1 in the 1995 Draft. At the high point of his career he averaged 18.7 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Those are great averages but many people consider him a bust because Garnett who was drafted #5 in the same draft has outplayed him. Injury ruined his career after year #3, but while he lasted was he a bust? - Derrick Coleman: Drafted #1 in 1990. He was a beast of a player averaging 20.7 ppg, 11.7 rpg, and 1.7 bpg. People say that he was a big troublemaker off the court and that overshadowed his career on the court. Should he be considered a bust or not? - Fred Jones (Indiana), Kenyon Martin (Denver), Stromile Swift (Houston): Here's my main point. These three guys are all average players except Kenyon is above average. Should these guys be considered draft busts? They were all drafted high and in comparison to other players, they aren't anything special. Kenyon Martin was the #1 pick and he has never averaged more then 16 ppg in his career. What do you guys think? - Chris Wilcox? This guy has averaged a 50% shooting average and in 20 minutes he averaged 8.6 ppg and 4.6 rpg. He has to play behind Elton Brand and Chris Kaman, but I think if he gets more playing time he could evolve into something real good. Samething goes with Mike Sweetney who's with Chicago now. - Chris Kaman? Drafted 6th Overall. He's a good player and he's having a breakout season. His numbers aren't amazing but he's a good center, really stepping up during important games. Some consider him a bust but is he really? - Mike Dunleavy? Average player, decent play. Drafted #3 in the draft and is considered a bust. Averaged 13 ppg and 5.5 rpg last season. Now for the steals: - Gilbert Arenas: Obvious Reason, drafted in the second round but has career averages of 20.2 ppg, 5.3 apg, and 1.6 spg. - Cuttino Mobley: Career Averages of 17.0 ppg and 4.0 rpg, 1.6 3pm average on 38%. Drafted 2nd Round, 12th pick. - Michael Redd: Drafted 2nd Round, 14th pick. Has career averages of 18.2 ppg and 4.0 rpg. There are many more, those are just a few. So how do we rate players to consider them busts/steals? Should statistics be the way? Or should other factors be considered? Can a player be drafted in the lottery and never average the greatest statistics but still be considered a good compliment to their team and a good role player? Can only lottery players and upper 1st round picks be considered busts? I have a lot more to say, but this is taking waaay too long. So what's the opinion? * All stats from Yahoo! Sports.
how much of a difference he makes on the team that drafted him. especially if the team was in the lottery. examples lebron in cle and paul in NO look at them the year before they came end then the year they played if the diff is clear then you decide.
It's simple really. Busts are players who are selected with lottery picks and don't work out. Steals are the players selected in the later stages of the draft and do much better then people expected. Another example of a steal is when players are expected to go higher but slip down the board.
I think Darko Milicic could be good if he wasnt on the team with the best big men depth in the NBA ( Ben and Rasheed Wallace, Dale Davs, Antonio McDyess, Jason Maxiell, and poor old Darko).
