This just gets more interesting with every debate, every caucus and every primary. We now have the last two republican presidential candidates saying they won't vote for Trump under any condition. We now have Cruz with a big push, picking up quite a few delegates, enough to possibly battle with Trump, especially if the rest of the field drops out. We have the two front runners, Trump and Cruz being the two that the establishment hates the most, and it seems like there is a major splintering within the Republican party. If Trump can get enough delegates to win outright than much of the Republican party will be looking for a third party candidate. If Trump gets close, but it goes to a contested convention, than the party may choose Trump or go with another candidate. If the other candidate is Rubio or Kashic and they don't have many delegates, the voters will feel disenfranchised and cheated out of their rights. If Cruz is selected I doubt he has a shot against Clinton (unless she is indicted) and much of the moderates in the party won't be able to support him. This is just a fascinating puzzle. There is drama on the D side too, but not nearly as much, and not nearly as blurry as on the R side. Usually I prognosticate about issues such as these, but I really don't know what to expect. I thought Trump would be dust by now, but I am obviously wrong. Everything I have tried to deduce so far has been flawed. Where is this crazy ride going to end up.
I don't know where the ride ends up, but I can identify what we are riding in. It's a handbasket. barfo
There is no doubt at all that Donald Trump has won the Republican Primary. Just going through the motions now. The DNC has made it clear your vote doesn't count in their primary and they will have Hillary no matter how many feel the Bern. So we already know it's Trump vs Clinton. Assuming nobody has a "Scalia" or withdraws due to scandal, I expect Donald Trump will get the largest percentage of the popular vote ever cast for President.
I watched the undemocratic party debate last night. To sum it up, Hillarity is rude and conniving. Sanders is a bitter old man who yelled and screamed his way through it, and bad ideas to boot. Bernie Sanders
About Clinton, I think you are correct that she will be the nominee. As far as Trump goes, I really don't see it as decided. I think he will go to the convention with the most delegates, but there is a very good chance that it will be less than the required amount to win the nomination outright. This is where the interesting stuff happens. It allows the candidates to make deals and delegates to switch who they support. For example, if Rubio ends up winning a bunch of states in the north and on the west coast, and Kasich wins Ohio and gets a few more delegates here and there, they could make a deal to run as a Rubio/Kasich ticket and perhaps reach the required delegate threshold. They may not get there, it could be Cruz and Rubio, or perhaps Trump and Kasich. Point being, If we get to a contested convention, deals can be made, by candidates, by delegates, the establishment can exert pressure, all sorts of things can occur to alter the outcome. I don't think it's nearly settled.
The old GOP is so blatantly out of touch. To threaten to contest the will of the party at convention, to spend time and money to challenge the front runner. They expose them selves as being the self serving bunch of crooks that we have been accusing them to have been for years. I dont agree with The Donald on a lot of things, but I do think that it is time to shine a light on Washington DC, and see which way the cockroaches run. The only way that happens is to get someone who is not bought and paid for. Might be time to eliminate Super Pacs, rein in lobby contributions, enforce the in place election campaign laws that are bypassed with the above mentioned.
Amazing that Trump's delegate lead is only 84. The way it's reported, you would think that he had a nearly insurmountable lead. Cruz actually beat Trump 69 - 53 on Saturday. Personally, I want Kasich, but he clearly doesn't have a chance and should probably drop out. He seems to be counting on Ohio, so perhaps he will after next Tuesday's set of primaries. If Cruz remains within shouting distance through the 15th, then I think this will remain closely contested into June as there are 303 delegates up for grabs on June 7th.
In case anyone's curious about the timing of primaries and available delegates, I'll list them in blocks: This week: HI, ID, MI, MS, DC - 160 delegates 3/15/16: FL (99), IL (69), MO (52), NC (72), OH (66) - 358 delegates 3/22/16: AZ, UT - 98 delegates April: WI, NY (95), CT, DE, MD, PA (71), RI - 309 delegates May: IN, NE, WV, OR, WA - 199 delegates 6/7/16: CA (172), MT, NJ, NM, SD - 303 delegates Also interesting to note that Ohio and Florida (with their presumed home-state advantages for Kasich and Rubio) are winner-take-all states, so the 3rd/4th place guys can make up some serious ground on the 15th. Anyone saying this is already over is incredibly premature.
Maybe you shouldn't have voted for them, then. I don't think you are going to get that with The Donald. He's not a 'good government' candidate. He's running to be dictator/king. He has expressed no interest whatsoever in stomping cockroaches - in fact he's likely to start a breeding program. barfo
Not over but after the 15th, there are not many States where Cruz will have a chance to win and those where he has a chance are short on delegates.
Are you under the assumption that Trump basically has NY, PA, and NJ locked up? And what about California? Last polls I saw there (admittedly 2 months old) had Cruz in the lead there.
I see a brokered convention, with the old guard Republicans bringing in Arnold Schwarzenegger in full Terminator mode to take out both Trump and Cruz.
Just listening to some pundits jibberjabber and one believed that Rubio will drop out over the next few days if Florida doesn't start looking better for him. The thinking is that if he loses FL it could ruin his political career, losing ones own state is just bad optics. If he does drop out, I see his support getting split pretty evenly between T,C and K.
