What if this is Lillard's ceiling?

I don't think it is, but consider it a "what if" exercise.

If Lillard can perform at this level for 12-15 years but no better, would you want Lillard as a career Blazer PG? Would you start looking for a replacement or improvement? If so, when? Would you resign him to a post-rookie deal?

 

Even if Lillard doesn't improve; he's been a better point guard than all others since porter. 18/6 is a great line for a starting pg.

 

What do you mean by "ceiling"?
Do you really mean he won't decrease his turnovers, won't learn to manage the clock, won't become even more of a leader, etc. Or do you actually mean he won't increase his points and assist numbers only?

 

I would be satisfied if he stays as is. I don't think his motor will allow that to happen though. Really, the only thing he needs is a bit more savvy.

 

Let's say his intangibles get better (clock management, leadership), but strangely, his stats remain the same. Shooting percentage, turnover rate, rebounding, points, assists, etc. All basically the same, within a range of +/- 1.0 of any one stat.

 

He's not close.

Wait until this team has a legit backup PG/SF/SF/PF/C on the roster.

We have yet to see him consistently play off the ball, this is a major strength of his. But when you have Smith/Price as the backup PG he can't.

 

This is such a good point; who a PG plays with affects their game more than any other position. The better your teammates are, the better you will play as a PG (there are always exceptions of course).

 

In that case, yes. I'd be happy with him as our career PG with his current offensive production, but improved intangibles.

 

He was a 4 year college player. He's near his ceiling, according to your rules.

 

He'll be 23 starting next season, so a more realistic expectation is that he can probably sustain what he's done so far for probably 7 o 8 more years, asking for 18/7 past thirty usually gets pretty dodgy.

Regardless, if this is as good as it gets (in terms of percentages and efficiency) then that's "OK," but probably not enough to elevate this team to championship contention unless he can turn himself into an elite defender to go with his current level of offensive production.

Good news though, I think he's got it in him to be a multiple appearance all-star.

 

Isn't that exactly what he just said?

 

That's some serious revisionist history.

 

I think he's already gotten better as the season goes on. I don't think the guy will ever be on the level of a Rose or maybe even a Kyrie Irving, but I think he could easily be an All-Star.

Maybe a Baron Davis or Kevin Johnson.

 

How about the opposite? What if Lillard's playing over his head? That's what this board keeps saying about Hickson.

 

I consider Terry Porter one of, if not the best PG to play for the Blazers. If Lillard's numbers stayed the same throughout his career, here would be the comparison, Per 36

HTML:

Rk           Player From   To   G  GS    MP  FG  FGA  FG%  3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA  FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF  PTS
1    Damian Lillard 2013 2013  49  49  1890 6.1 14.5 .424 2.1 5.9 .360 2.8 3.3 .851 0.5 2.6 3.1 6.0 1.0 0.3 2.8 1.9 17.2
2      Terry Porter 1986 1995 758 613 23978 6.0 12.8 .470 1.2 3.0 .385 3.8 4.5 .846 0.8 3.1 3.9 8.0 1.8 0.1 2.8 2.2 17.0

I would take that

 

Ive said it before but as good as Dame is there are some very learnable and fixable things in his game. Without even factoring in how much better he will get with more time and experience there are a few things that will make him better next year.

1) As he get more and more comfortable taking the ball to the hole in the NBA he will get not only better at but will start to get more calls which gets more free throws and free throws always help a shooter get going. I can see that adding 2-4 ppg onto his average.

2) He would become deadly if he can be consistent with the tear drop in the lane a la Tony Parker. That would easily bring another 2-4 ppgs.

3) As number one and two improve that will help open up his outside game and he will get better shots and better shot selection as a result. Another 2 ppg

4) As his defense improves I could see him become a better steals guy which is another bucket a game.

5) If we can get or develop another solid starter and add a stronger bench this would easily help his assists numbers. His teammates miss so many wide open shots that he creates that he could easily average 8-9 asp.

6) And all of these things could be impacted even more so if he develops into "the" go to guy on this team.

So if you look at all of these things I could see in his prime Lillard averaging something like 24 ppg 8.5 asp

And if he hasnt proven already just by where he came from to where he is that he has the drive and work ethic to get better then I dont know it would take to prove it.

Finally keep in mind this it what I think he could do on this team. Nevermind what he could do on a bad team where he was the only option. Like Damon.

 

I know many are still complaining about his defense; but I've seen significant improvement in that area. I think he can become a good defender. Think about the conference he played college ball at. There weren't many premier guards he had to defend. He's still learning the timing and intangibles at the pace of the nba level.

Also this is supposed to be the rookie wall; yet he is still plugging away. Scouting has focused on him badly and yet he is still getting +18 per game. That says a lot a out his skill and heart.