I left out Nurkic (can you believe he's the same age as Jake?!?), because I wanted to focus on guys who are less known.
I feel since I am a Blazer fan, if I answer this question, none of these players will go on to have long memorable careers. (See the last 40 or so years of this franchise if you think I am spooked.)
I hear ya! I made the mistake of getting excited about Collins - now I'm not sure if I doomed the kid or Stotts did!
I voted Layman. He's averaging 15pts/65%fg/50%3fg with .2 turnovers in his last 5, so I have a lot of recency bias going on I'll admit. But what he's doing just seems so natural. He's just a great athlete with a beautiful 3 point shot, and he's showing an offensive aggression I haven't seen from our SF position since, jeez, maybe Steve Smith/Bonzi Wells. The guy has a greediness to his offensive game that was always lacking in guys like Batum and Harkless. There was one point where he was actually playing SG out there against Utah and we looked good with him in there. If Portland were to trade CJ at some point, I think they could look at moving him for a SF and maybe sliding Jake in to SG. At 215, he's basically the same weight as Klay Thompson. I think Collins has a lot of potential still, but he seems to have regressed some recently on defense. Too many fouls have gotten into his head I think. He's starting to get a little of that timid look that Meyers has under the rim. With Portland's lack of other big man options, I think Zach is starting to develop the bad habit of just not screwing up, as opposed to controlling the paint. He gets to be on the court no matter what if he's not in foul trouble, so there's a perverse incentive to get more passive at the rim. Simons and Trent have looked good at times, and Portland has a fantastic track record of developing shooters. And they are way younger, so there's a lot of time to work with. But I just don't think the odds are in their favor.
I definitely feel you. I was right about Z-bo, but man did I miss the boat on guys like Travis Outlaw and Darius Miles. I never had any faith in Webster. I think I'm more confident in Jake because he's kind of an amalgamation of some of the best attributes of those three--Outlaw's athleticism (well, maybe not quite that extreme), Miles' fluidity, and Webster's shooting form. He seems to have his head screwed on better than any of those three, and he has the massive benefit of learning the NBA next to Lillard. All those guys really suffered from a lack of leadership.
Jake, yes biased from current performance. he does look pretty smooth right now. Going into season very excited about the trent pick, but have not seen enough to decide.
I picked gary trent jr because I knew no one else would and felt bad. hope they all have good careers.
Now you make me want to pick Stauskas for the same reason. Nah, Stauskas is gone after this season, maybe even by the trade deadline. Don't care if he has a good career...
I still think Zach has the most potential but he still has a lot of development to go to get there. On offense he real good between 0-3 and he at 34 percent at the 3. But between that from 3' to 3 point line it really bad. Defensely he all right and yes being in foul trouble might creeping up his mind. Stotts took him out early he only got 11 minutes last night but Stotts did that before but Zach bounce back the next game. Layman is just coming in to his own and that good to because it is his contract so good timing on his part. Now the 2 rookies it wait and see for them. Trent had good game down at the G- league yesterday now let's see Simons does tonight.
I think Collins has the most potential but given where they were drafted, Jake may provide the greatest value.
If there's anyone on this roster who gets the Martell Webster treatment, it's Collins. People are blindly listening to our current Mike Barrett equivalents who spin this Zach is good narrative just because he was a lottery pick that our GM specifically targeted. If Zach were drafted in the second round and Neil didn't trade Ed to supposedly open up an opportunity to spoonfeed Zach minutes he hasn't earned, there is no way he would be leading this poll. He has good size and length. That's about it. He has no touch around the basket and his shot is deteriorating along with his confidence. And I'm pretty sure I can move him around in the paint. The answer is Jake.
the cynic in me says the answer is whichever player is traded away or allowed to walk. But I've been well trained in my sports cynicism. My senior year in high school, my football team lost the last game of the season, the homecoming game, 62-0 to cap a 0-9 season. And after the game, the grandstand burnt down. And I didn't get lucky on my date
It's interesting that Harkless gets none of the votes, and yet has the biggest contract and sees the most minutes per game when healthy.