Will the Blazers struggle more on offense or defense next year?

By Matt Moore | NBA writer

http://cbsprt.co/1PYesRi

The Portland Trail Blazers did not have what you would call a great summer. They lost four starters from a team that won 51 games and the Northwest division, including this summer's biggest free agent, LaMarcus Aldridge. To pivot forward, GM Neil Olshey targeted an interesting combination of future financial flexibility and young players on movable contracts. It's a criticism-proof approach when you consider the long-term priorities of the Blazers. Olshey managed to create enough opportunities for the future without desperately aiming to replenish the roster in talent.

The short-term, however ... that's going to be a bit rough.

Changes were coming to the Blazers no matter what Aldridge decided this summer. Before the draft, Olshey moved talented forward Nicolas Batum for Gerald Henderson and Noah Vonleh. On the Lowe Post podcast, Olshey said that the decision was made independent of Aldridge's decision. Olshey felt that by adding Henderson to their depth they'd be in a better position going forward, with or without Aldridge. Here's what Olshey said on the Lowe Post:

"We felt like that was absolutely the best move with or without LaMarcus at the time. It gave us some cap relief, it gave us more flexibility in free agency. If in fact LaMarcus chose to return, then we had more money to spend out on the perimeter, and we had other targets in mind that we needed to create more cap flexibility in order to pursue.

"One, we felt like if we brought in another starter, then Gerald Henderson would have strengthened the bench. We got a bright young prospect in Noah Vonleh who we were really high on at the draft. And we created a positive variance in our in terms of our cap position to go and be more aggressive in free agency to go and build on the team that was there."​

So that scenario seems to make some sense. If Aldridge re-signs, the Blazers were clearly ready to punt on Batum. That seems odd given that Batum averaged 11-5-3 as a top-notch defender, while shooting 36 percent from 3-point range. But if they were ready to move on, for whatever unknown reason, adding Henderson as an emergency starter while having their eyes on adding a better small forward in free agency and nabbing Vonleh as a prospect (who still has a lot of potential to unlock), that's a pretty solid plan.

However, of course, Aldridge did not re-sign, and as a result the Blazers became much less of an attractive destination. There also weren't a lot of wing targets that fit what Portland needed after LMA's decision. They needed young and playoff-ready players if they were going to try and pick up where they left off, and that just isn't realistic. They could have broke the bank for someone like Monta Ellis, but they would be trying to tread water with a lot of weight on them in terms of on-court liabilities and cap room in the brutal Western Conference.

Olshey made moves, though. He traded for Mason Plumlee to provide a legit 5 to replace Robin Lopez. He added value signings in Al-Farouq Aminu -- who signed for $30 million -- and Ed Davis. Aminu was one of the first deals of free agency reported, and it prompted a great deal of mockery. Aminu, however, has emerged over the past two seasons as an A-level defender with upside, who continues to learn how to use his athleticism to create a few spare buckets offensively.

The problem is that so many of the moves seem to be supporting brackets for a larger move that simply doesn't exist. There's no wing or low-post anchor for the team to build around on either end, meaning that Damian Lillard is about to get a crash course in what so many players learn early on: the weight of a franchise on a bad team.

This is where it gets tricky. There's good talent on the Blazers. Lillard's obviously an All-Star caliber player who likely learned a lesson about defense from the abuse he took last year. Gerald Henderson is a terrific defender who has a surprising amount of athleticism and gets a few buckets here and there (though he struggles mightily as a shooter). Plumlee is a finisher and physical presence who took minutes from Brook Lopez at one point last year. The Blazers still have C.J. McCollum, who over time has shown he can be a firebug point guard, creating offense with speed and abandon. Meyers Leonard evolved into a legit stretch big last year, and despite any defensive liabilities, you can't teach height. Vonleh, Aminu, Ed Davis all have things to make you think they can contribute to a good team in the future.

However, even if you're as high on these individual players as I am, you have to look at this roster objectively, in a Western Conference schedule, and wince. Or vomit.

A debate has come up over what's going to be worse this year: the Blazers' offense or defense. The easy answer, unfortunately, is both.

The Completely Movable Object vs. The Totally Resistible Force

Summer is a time for optimism. It's pretty easy to talk yourself into a team. That's why Kings fans are adamant they will make the playoffs, Lakers fans are talking themselves into the idea they can be "right there" and Magic fans are into the idea that "this is the year." There will be surprises, to be sure. However, any attempt to think that the drop-off for Portland after losing four starters, including two borderline All-Star players in LMA and Wes Matthews (free agent, Dallas) won't hurt is misguided. Better to simply accept the ship is going down and hope it lands close enough to shore for the crew to swim to land.

To go ahead and close off those ideas, here's a look at the top-10 rotation of last year's Blazers with a projected 2015-16 top-10 rotation and some advanced numbers. Win Shares is a metric used by Basketball Reference. Without getting into the formulaic mumbo-jumbo, it's meant to indicate how much a player contributed to wins on offense, defense and overall. The comparison will be pretty sobering for any Kool-Aid drinker about next year's Blazers.

The Blazers' rotation projected for next year: Lillard, Henderson, McCollum, Aminu, Ed Davis, Plumlee, Leonard, Chris Kaman, Harkless and Vonleh. There are other players you can buy into, but these are at least some of the guys who should see significant time.

Here's a look at the sum offensive, defense and net win shares for those two rotations, based on last season's numbers.



The nice thing is, that's actually not too much off. A few jumps here or there, especially from players that haven't gotten a lot of playing time, and that gap could narrow. Key word: narrow. There's still going to be a drop-off, and while those jumps could happen, you also have to factor in the possibility that in situations where these players are relied on more and the defense keys on or attacks more often, their numbers could drop.

If you want an anecdotal way to put these numbers in context, the Blazers' projected 10-man rotation next year had a combined 12.7 offensive win shares. Chris Paul had 12.9, and James Harden had 12.2.

That is maybe the more important revelation of what we're looking at here: The defense is closer to what Portland had last year (1.7 win shares behind) than the offense (2.7 win shares back). The idea that the defense will struggle more than the offense is odd considering how many of the players are specifically defensive role players. Henderson gives offense, but defense is his strength. Aminu has added a few tricks offensively, but he's mostly an offensive zero; his defense is what has earned him playing time (he was one of the few Mavericks with positive on/off defensive numbers last season). If Vonleh is going to learn a role, it has to start with being a shot blocker and defensive presence in disrupting pick and rolls with his insane length. Plumlee's physicality, same deal.

That's maybe the glaring thing about next year's Portland team -- there just aren't offensive threats beyond Lillard and McCollum. Leonard can stretch the floor, but you're not going to see him go for 30 points more than maybe once a season. Maybe the only player with the ability outside of the guards to put up numbers is Ed Davis, whose numbers last year were surprisingly strong. (Davis had 4.6 offensive win shares for the Lakers last season, the only Blazer outside of Lillard who had more than three win shares on offense last year.)

Basketball Reference also provides a metric called Box Score Plus-Minus which seeks to compare a player's contributions on offense or defense based on the box score to the average NBA player. This figure is messy, especially defensively with the absence of box score defensive data, but it still deserves a look because it underscores the point:



So yeah, I would think the offense is going to struggle pretty mightily next year. The Blazers project as a team that exists as an outlier in the West next year. They should be able to cause some disruption defensively, but over the course of a game, lose steam offensively as the margin widens. There's also the possibility that the individual numbers don't translate to this specific group; Portland's defense could be much worse with the lack of continuity and with so many of its players in key positions being raw. And several players whose offense hasn't been a factor could thrive under Terry Stotts, who worked magic over the past three years.

THE SILVER LINING

So no surprise, the Blazers are going to be as bad as you would think, on both sides of the ball, but especially offense. You have to keep in mind, however, that this season does not matter. This is the start of the rebuild. This is year one where Olshey tries to figure out how to translate the leftovers of this summer's mass exodus into a new contender built around Damian Lillard in a few years.

From our offseason report:

In going young, did Olshey do the right thing?Yes, and that's the case regardless of how many of these moves work out. Even if you're not bullish on Aminu, Plumlee, Davis or Vonleh, you have to admire how Olshey changed course so quickly. Portland wanted Aldridge back, but made sure it was prepared to adjust if he left. Lillard, who just signed a five-year maximum contract extension, is now clearly the franchise player. Olshey's goal was to surround him with players who have upside on favorable contracts, and he did that.When the Blazers started Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge and Lopez, it was clear what kind of team they were. The five of them had developed great chemistry over the past couple of seasons, and they all knew their respective roles. Now there's a ton of uncertainty, but there's also potential and financial flexibility. In the West, it would have been insane to try to keep the same core minus Aldridge. That would have been a fringe playoff team at best, with almost no room to grow.
Source: NBA Offseason Report: Going young right move for new-look Blazers? - CBSSports.com. ​

Olshey has set up the team well for the future. If they show promise this year, they can lure a free agent or two, and improve next year, then look at making a push. Olshey wisely added smart protections on the draft pick sent to Denver for Arron Afflalo, so they're protected there. There's a good chance that the Blazers are flat-out one of the worst teams in the league; that's honestly their best-case scenario. Adding a top-five pick to pair with Lillard as part of a new core would do wonders for them. Between now and then, the question isn't whether the Blazers will struggle, but where will their areas of weakness be more pronounced, and how do they find a roadmap back to contention?



http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on...struggle-more-on-offense-or-defense-next-year

 

I take it you're off the reading bandwagon.

 

Yes.

 

*sees an article with pictures*

*looks only at the pictures*

Playboy trained me well.

 

The one thing I've not seen ANY national writer talk about is the paucity of bad shots taken by Davis/Plumlee/Leonard. They just don't do it. Maybe it's from having guys like Dame/LMA, K*be, KG, etc. yelling at them if they do, but all are willing (if only decent) passers out of bad situations, which is something that our leading shot-taker last year was not.

Does that mean we may see more 24-sec violations or Dame heaving up double-teamed 3's? Maybe. But I'm especially excited to see what Davis and Plumlee can do in both the P&R and a hi-low game with Leonard at the top---assuming, of course, that Coach Stotts chooses to use them in those ways.

 

Patience is a virtue.

 

What's interesting is that you could actually have a direct influence in making that happen with the clips you send to New Jersey during call reviews.

 

Aminu, McCollum, Fraizer, Connaughton, Plumlee, Davis, Crabbe, Leonard, Hendrson, Harkless, Vonleh, Kaman, Miller, Pressey.

I'm fairly certain those are names.