The last 9 games, every game since the all star break, Yao has been phenomenal. How does this 9-game stretch (in terms of per minute statistical production) stack up with what Hakeem did in his best years (92/93 - 94/95)? I used Hollinger's game score formula, adjusted to 40 minutes (multipled by factor 40/[minutes per game]) on Yao's past 9 game stretch. Unadjusted "game score" for Yao's last 9: 24.37 Adjusted "game score" for Yao's last 9: 26.5 That's unbelievably strong for a 9-game stretch. But how many 9-game stretches did Hakeem have that surpassed this? I'll just look at adjusted game scores, since Hakeem played about 4 more minutes a game than Yao. There were 13 9-game stretches where Hakeem had a better per-minute "game score" than Yao has had over his last 9 games. Hakeem's best 9-game stretches during 92/93 - 94/95 seasons, in chronological order: <font color="DarkGreen">27.02 (11/25/92 - 12/12/92)</font> <font color="DarkGreen">27.51 (11/27/92 - 12/25/92)</font> <font color="DarkOrange">27.68 (1/8/93 - 1/23/93)</font> <font color="DarkOrange">26.71 (1/10/93 - 1/24/93)</font> <font color="Red">26.85 (2/25/93 - 3/13/93)</font> <font color="DarkSlateGray">29.15 (3/28/93 - 4/16/93)</font> <font color="Navy">27.18 (12/17/94 - 1/5/95)</font> <font color="Navy">27.68 (12/22/94 - 1/7/95)</font> <font color="Navy">26.99 (12/23/94 - 1/11/95)</font> <font color="Sienna">26.88 (1/24/95 - 2/9/95)</font> <font color="Sienna">27.04 (1/26/95 - 2/14/95)</font> <font color="Sienna">27.77 (1/28/95 - 2/16/95)</font> <font color="Sienna">26.95 (1/31/95 - 2/17/95)</font> <font color="Sienna">26.51 (2/2/95 - 2/19/95)</font> As you can see, however, there is considerable overlap. Overall, it entails only 6 disjoint stretches. His average "game score" for a 9-game stretch was 23.06, and the median was 23.11: So, Yao's stretch since the all-star break ranks among Olajuwon's very best in his MVP-caliber years. Consider also that the Rockets at that time played at a considerably higher pace than the current Rockets team, so if we adjusted for that Yao's stats could look even better (betwen 92-95 Rockets played about 94.5 possessions/48min, whereas now they play more like 88 possessions/48min).
Great analysis durvasa. I didn't think of this stretch before but with the comparisons to what Hakeem did, it makes me appreciate Yao's current play more. However, Olajuwon was facing Robinson, Mourning, Shaq, Ewing. The toughest opponent Yao's faced in this 9 game stretch was probably Marcus Camby.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Locke:</div><div class="quote_post">Great analysis durvasa. I didn't think of this stretch before but with the comparisons to what Hakeem did, it makes me appreciate Yao's current play more. However, Olajuwon was facing Robinson, Mourning, Shaq, Ewing. The toughest opponent Yao's faced in this 9 game stretch was probably Marcus Camby.</div> That's a valid point. But, at the same time, consider that Yao has to face zone defenses which make it more difficult for centers to score. It was much easier to feed the post in Hakeem's day than it is now, and double/triple teams didn't close in as quickly. I'm not saying that Yao is at Hakeem's level, or close to it. Olajuwon did his thing over the course of several seasons and was a great playoff performer. But, still, the current stretch Yao has had is quite impressive and would rank amongst Hakeem's best. Adjusting for other factors (like pace and zone defenses), and maybe Yao's last 9 would look even better compared to what Hakeem did.
This compares Yao's progress (in terms of per minute "game scores") to Hakeem's progress in his earlier years. Since I could only go as far back as the 87/88 season for Hakeem's game logs, I decided to compare his 4th and 5th season's 9-game moving average production/40 minutes to that of Yao the last two seasons. By using a 9-game moving average, the data is smoothed out a bit, and it's easier to see how they progressed. It's not a coincidence I chose 9 games, since Yao has been spectacular in his last 9. It's important to note that the pace of the Rockets in the 80s was significantly faster than it is now, so stats are almost certainly inflated back then. B-R.com shows 101.8 possessions per 48 minutes for the Rockets in the 87-88 years, while now the Rockets playing a very slow pace of only around 88 possessions a game. That's about a 15% faster pace, and it's reasonable to think that Yao's statistical productivity might have been more with so many more possessions (theoretically, in proportion to the extra possessions). Or, conversely, Hakeem's productivity would have been less with 15% less possessions. Also, Yao plays less minutes per game than Hakeem did, and the gap between the two would be greater if we considered per game statistical production. Without considering Hakeem's pace-adjusted stats, he was playing at a higher level of productivity pretty much throughout. Yao's recent upsurge puts him at a level close to where Hakeem played in his better stretches. If you adjust Hakeem's stats down for pace (dividing by 1.15 with the assumption he's getting 15% more possessions per 40 minutes), the similarities between his progression and Yao's is quite interesting. If you delve further into their stats, you'd find that Hakeem was a better rebounder, shot blocker, and got a ton more steals, while Yao is a much more efficient scorer.
Interesting yet again, Yao and Hakeem seem like they're not far off after all. Btw, could you maybe compare Yao's numbers to some other NBA greats? David Robinson, Patrick Ewing, Kareem Abdul-Jabaar and the likes? I think the Yao = Rik Smits thing can be buried now...
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Locke:</div><div class="quote_post">Interesting yet again, Yao and Hakeem seem like they're not far off after all. Btw, could you maybe compare Yao's numbers to some other NBA greats? David Robinson, Patrick Ewing, Kareem Abdul-Jabaar and the likes? I think the Yao = Rik Smits thing can be buried now...</div> From a box score stats standpoint, David Robinson was even better than Hakeem. At least during the regular seasons. I think Yao and Ewing would be fairly similar the same stage in their respective careers. Maybe I'll do that at some point. I'd also like to compare Yao's last few years with Shaq's games in Miami. My guess is that their progress is gradually converging. I'll chart it when I get a chance.
