I've projected numbers for the top 100 players in fantasy basketball. My formula values blocks and steals near the top, rebounds and assists, and of course points. Also incorporated are 3 point shots, and small adjustments for field goal and free throw percentages. Turnovers are generally given small weight unless they are especially low or high for the numbers that player produces. In close numerical comparison, positions play a key role. Since I play in 9 category leagues, my ratings are geared towards that, and I capped my list at 100. I also put up comments for the top 50. Feel free to post your agreements or disagreements. I may update this from time to time, until the regular season starts. 1. Kevin Garnett (F) - near the tops for every conceivable stat except 3 pointers. 2. Tim Duncan (FC) - available at the vital C position in most leagues, he'll provide points, rebounds, blocks, and a high FG%, but be a drain on your FT%. 3. Tracy McGrady (G) - his 3 pointers give him the fantasy edge over Kobe; Yao's influence may lower scoring but provide beneficial effects in other categories. 4. Kobe Bryant (G) - look for stat lines matching his 2002-2003 season. 5. Shaquille O'Neal © - averaged only 67 games the past 3 seasons; but big contributions in any game he plays. 6. Andrei Kirilenko (F) - great in steals, blocks, and fair numbers through the rest of the stat line. Could see a dip in rebounding this year with Boozer and Okur in the front court. 7. Dirk Nowitzki (F) - good numbers in all categories including low turnovers. 8. Jermaine O?Neal (F) - similar numbers to Brand, but gets the nod because he averages more blocks, and the thin Pacers frontcourt guarantees him more time. 9. Elton Brand (F) - guaranteed averages of 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks at 50% shooting. 10. Paul Pierce (G) - in fantasy numbers almost matches Kobe and T-Mac, but has a big problem with turnovers. 11. Stephon Marbury (G) - has ability and opportunity to lead the league in assists and still post high scoring figures. 12. Allen Iverson (G) - injuries and a low FG% lower his stock, despite huge points and assists totals. 13. Baron Davis (G) - fantasy?s best PG overall last year; must avoid injuries and focus on playing rather than being traded. 14. Peja Stojakovic (F) - 240 3pt goals topped the league last year; great scorer and shooter but mediocre in other categories. 15. Ben Wallace (F) - blocks, steals, and rebounds in a huge dose of Defense. 16. Shawn Marion (F) - fantastic all-around numbers and last year?s league leader in total steals, but possibility of playing at PF and deeper lineup raises questions of reduced role this year. 17. Ray Allen (G) - elite 3pt shooter and great all around numbers, but injuries are concern. 18. Steve Francis (G) - escapes rocky relationship with the Rockets; expect bigger numbers in Orlando. 19. LeBron James (G) - could be playing SF this year, with increased scoring but reduced ballhandling and assists. 20. Yao Ming © - dominant in the NBA, but doesn?t always translate in fantasy numbers. 21. Lamar Odom (F) - versatile forward who needs to show consistency. 22. Sam Cassell (G) - despite solid previous season, age, playoff injury and contract dispute linger. 23. Brad Miller (FC) - low blocks hurts an otherwise impressive fantasy stat line. 24. Michael Redd (G) - pure shooter, low turnovers, but narrow focus with few assists and average FG%. 25. Mike Bibby (G) - excels at assist, 3pts, and steals. 26. Pau Gasol (F) - emerges as the leader in the deep Memphis team. 27. Amare Stoudamire (F) - great last season, but 2 dimensional (points, rebounds) 28. Kenyon Martin (F) - he managed good numbers in a crowd in New Jersey, so Denver should be a fine transition. 29. Zach Randolph (F) - he?s undersized at PF and a ballhog, but also a great rebounder and scorer. 30. Steven Nash (G) - getting older, but numbers won't start declining - yet. 31. Ron Artest (F) - fair overall stats, and high steals. 32. Dwayne Wade (G) - fearless, and still improving his game. 33. Antoine Walker (F) - aside from Harrington, the rest of the Atlanta roster is scrubs, so he?ll get his chances to shoot. 34. Carmelo Anthony (F) - lightened scoring load should help his overall game 35. Gilbert Arenas (G) - great scorer, but still building on the PG skills; will need tune up his assist-turnover ratio. 36. Andre Miller (G) - annually top 10 in assists and solid in many other categories, but not a long range threat. 37. Carlos Boozer (F) - double-double guarantee, but that?s all he?s good for. 38. Richard Jefferson (F) - could well surpass 20 points a game as the main option, but he?ll have to do it without much help. 39. Corey Maggette (GF) - potent scorer improving each year, but currently a second option to Brand. 40. Jason Richardson (G) - first option on a young team, and a great rebounding guard (6.7 last season). 41. Michael Finley (F) - great veteran, but numbers have been in decline in recent years. 42. Kirk Hinrich (G) - tough defense and good passing will guarantee him playing time, even with Gordon. 43. Manu Ginobili (G) - fantasy potential remains unfulfilled but should appear as a starter this season; great alternative option for raising steals and assists at the 2 guard. 44. Vince Carter (GF) - disgruntled superstar with injury risks and declining numbers; could defy expectations if healthy. 45. Antawn Jamison (F) - starting spot will raise scoring and 3 pointers closer to starting numbers. 46. Zydrunas Ilgauskas © - underrated shotblocker and rebounder; injury problems silenced with two consecutive healthy years. 47. Jason Terry (G) - scoring will decrease, but on a high offense team, he's sure to prove that he's a solid PG option. 48. Richard Hamilton (G) - consistent scorer, but severely lacking in the 3pt department. 49. Chauncey Billups (G) - Finals MVP, but not outstanding numbers during the season, still a quality point guard. 50. Samuel Dalembert © - Amazing shotblocker will have more minutes this season. 51. Jason Kidd (G) 52. Erick Dampier © 53. Marcus Camby © 54. Jamaal Magloire © 55. Tony Parker (G) 56. Rashard Lewis (F) 57. Chris Webber (F) 58. Jamal Crawford (G) 59. Donyell Marshall (F) 60. Cuttino Mobley (G) 61. Al Harrington (F) 62. Rasheed Wallace (FC) 63. Theo Ratliff © 64. Keith Van Horn (F) 65. Jason Williams (G) 66. Eddie Jones (G) 67. James Posey (GF) 68. Chris Bosh (FC) 69. Latrell Sprewell (GF) 70. Joe Johnson (GF) 71. Jalen Rose (GF) 72. Brent Barry (G) 73. Kurt Thomas (FC) 74. Emeka Okafor (FC) 75. Gary Payton (G) 76. Eddy Curry © 77. P.J. Brown (F) 78. Marquis Daniels (G) 79. Quentin Richardson (G) 80. Glenn Robinson (F) 81. Nene Hilario (FC) 82. Joe Smith (F) 83. Larry Hughes (G) 84. Rafer Alston (G) 85. Tyson Chandler (F) 86. Tayshaun Prince (F) 87. Mike Dunleavy (F) 88. Gerald Wallace (F) 89. Voshon Lenard (G) 90. Shareef Abdur-Rahim (F) 91. Kenny Thomas (F) 92. Doug Christie (G) 93. Mehmet Okur (FC) 94. Stephen Jackson (GF) 95. Ben Gordon (G) 96. Jerry Stackhouse (GF) 97. Dwight Howard (F) 98. Mark Blount © 99. Carlos Arroyo (G) 100. Ricky Davis (GF)
I didn't check out the whole thing, but Marion and AK should be top 5, and Brand should be higher too.
I projected J.O'Neal higher than Brand. Both are stars on their teams, but J.O. has a great edge in blocks and turnovers. In addition, even though Indiana is better, O'Neal has a bigger role on than Brand; Brand has a very promising backup in Wilcox and plays alongside a growing Kaman, while when J.O. sits, he'll probably have Croshere behind him (Bender will play alongside him, most likely) and Foster, who only rebounds, plays alongside him. I could easily rotate AK to 5th, but he's tied with Shaq, and Shaq gets a "best player on a bad team" bonus. He's bound to get more overall points and rebounds, and while he won't fill up the rest of the categories as well, this will carry him over unless he plays less than 70 games while AK plays all 82, according to my numbers. Marion gets downgraded despite being arguably the #1 best fantasy player two years ago and top 5 last year. His role on the team is changing and he may be asked to focus on defense and sharing the ball rather than being the sole go-to-guy. Thus, just like when looking at a changing businesses, I've moved his stock rating to "hold."
This is a pretty old list. I've altered it several times even before the season, and obviously have to adjust it slightly every week based on more information. I didn't update it because I have to put a blurb by each one and to be honest, since there wasn't much feedback, I wasn't too interested in updating it. Vince went up to #31 on my last list before the season, among changes for nearly every single other player not in the top 2.
