Looks like more Oden means less Outlaw

So, my mom bought me a floating basketball hoop for my swimming pool 2 years ago. It had a little ball I can easily palm.

I set the hoop to one side of the pool, from the other side I did a somersault under the water and popped my arm up out of the pool and without looking swished the shot on the first try. My girlfriend was amazed. I wish I had it on video.

Then, I tried for about 20 minutes to do the same shot again. NO LUCK MAN.

LaMarcus Aldgridge should not be shooting these threes, Rudy or Travis is fine with me. Travis has played many more games for us to see a trend, I trust him in those situations. Rudy, I have a good feeling about just because of his form. And his attitude.

 

But LMA is making them over and over in practice, I assume. I'm all for him shooting threes if he makes 40% of them.

 

I would bet you that Rudy can make 70 percent in practice when he gets hot. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit nothing but net on 10-15 in a row if he is feeling it.

Here is the thing, you don't want your power forward shooting 40 percent on threes when you can have a guard shooting 40 percent. The other 60 percent of the time you will have guards trying to rebound if the power forward is shooting threes.

Each possession is about more than the actual shot.

If the guy can't post up and pass the ball if he doesn't get a good shot then something is wrong. If the coaching staff can't get him to move his game inside more then someone needs to go. I don't know why guys like Sheed and LaMarcus haven't utilized the pump fake more while facing the basket. Hook shots and fade aways are fine, but seeing a guy turn and face then get his man in the air and take two dribbles and dunk the damn ball are WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY more fun to me.

 

LMA is increasing his range but that three he took at a crucial time was horrible. Shoot 'em early, but not in crunch time.

 

I have a hard time deciding if I like this idea. I have thought about it a bit but can't decide. I know that the game is supposed to be fun for the guys, so part of me agrees. The other part thinks that crunch time is 48 minutes long. Kinda like saving for retirement, you shouldn't wait until you are 60 to start.

Every hoop counts....but I don't know. I would at least rather see him shoot from the top of the key instead of the corners. Doing so makes it easier to judge the rebound as well as make it easier for him to get back on D.

I mean, if people think he is going to shoot the ball, he can pump and drive...even from three. Take two dribbles and pull the defense from Oden and pass it to him and dunk city.

 

Not necessarily. It is situational. That is a great lineup but there are some PG's that require someone smaller and quicker to be able to stay with them. I don't know that Roy could stay with Paul but perhaps Rudy could.

With Oden getting more minutes, I think you'll see Frye and Outlaw both get fewer minutes.

Outlaw has played very well and has some good skills. However, he is not as complete a player as Rudy. Both have their strengths and I think that as Oden works his way into the lineup, there will be some experimentation by Nate to determine which lineups work best. In some cases it may include both Outlaw and Rudy and in others in may involve only one or the other.

Just because Oden is back doesn't make one or the other irrelevant, but it may mean fewer minutes for one or both.

Gramps...

 

Very true. We should have traded Outlaw by now. His value is dropping.

 

How is his value dropping? He's having a great season and he's one of the top three point shooters in the league.

 

This is a bigger experimental stage for the team than we have seen so far in the season - Greg changes the complex of the game so much that it is a whole new ballgame for the coaching staff to figure out how to structure the rotation around him. I am willing to bet that they will not be set on the right way to solve it for another week or two - so you are going to see different uses for the different players as the time goes on.

Portland used to have 2 or 3 ball handlers at the end of a game - usually Roy / Jack / Blake / Travis / LMA last year or Roy / Jack / Jones / Travis / LMA: This year it was Roy / Rudy / Blake / Travis / LMA.

Having Oden in means that we are either going with one less scorer or one less ball handler and they experimented with Travis out. I suspect that this was a problem - since Travis can create a shot for himself at the end of the game no matter what - he should probably be in there at the end of the game - so the next question is - will Nate take Blake (a guy who can hit the long ball) or LMA out. I am willing to bet we will see some experimentation with these two out of the lineup for a little bit. Without Blake we are down to just Roy and Rudy handling the ball (not too bad against most teams, but could be a problem against teams that press the ball handlers well). Without LMA we are down a rebounder and a guy that can set a pick and pop for a face-up.

It is going to take a little bit for the team to figure out how they are doing it. Oden is a big adjustment for everyone, including us. But, once we get used to playing with him - the problem will be for the opposing team to adjust - and you will see the Blazers win more.

By the time the team figure it out - we might be getting JayBay into the rotation and they might have to rethink this thing again - probably not at the end of the games, however.

 

It depends on what kind of lineup Nate wants on the floor late in the games.
I wouldn't mind seeing Outlaw playing with Roy, Rudy, LaMarcus and Greg. But I think Nate prefers having either Blake or Sergio out on the floor to have more ball handling.
But I think it'd be interesting to see a bigger lineup out there, have Roy and Rudy in the back court, Outlaw or Martell at SF, and Aldridge and Oden up front.
There's a lot of combos we can go with.

 

TO must GO!!!

 

I think that the big number crunch will come when Webster is back.

 

The main problem with Outlaw in end-game situations is that his defense is poor. So, ideally, if the team has plenty of timeouts, you can do offense/defense substitutions. He's a definite and big plus on offense at the end of the game.

 

Poor defense or not, the team has won 18 out of the last 23 5 point games he has finished on the court.

 

Yes, that's nice trivia. Maybe it would be 23 of 23 with a better player. Or maybe not. But correlation doesn't imply causation. The team has also won 7 of the last 7 games within 5 points that I've watched. But I wouldn't yet say that Portland should pay me millions to watch their games, so that they win. (I'm not turning it down, either, if they choose to go that direction.)

In any case, I'm not saying Outlaw is a net negative. Just that he's not a complete positive in end-game situations, so it's definitely worth considering that there may be better choices than Outlaw at the ends of games.

 

That doesn't matter. Maybe your opinion on his defense isn't valid? I don't know, all I can go on in terms of definitives are the actual results. The results tell me Outlaw, for whatever reason, is on the court as the team wins a disproportionate portion of close games.

 

I assume you are trying to be funny? When the facts ruin your argument, make stuff up? That sorta thing?

 

The "results" are that they've won; it takes more than a simple correlation to tie those results to Outlaw's presence on the court. Maybe they win those games despite Outlaw, and with a better defensive player, they'd have won them more easily.

Simply saying that they've won a high percentage of close games with him on the floor isn't terribly valid statistical analysis, because it's not a one-on-one sport. Results aren't fueled entirely by Outlaw...there are tons of confounding factors, like the performances of all the other players, the quality of the opposition and the lack of a control (how would the team have done with other players...if they would have won all the same games, Outlaw didn't add anything).

I'm not saying Outlaw wasn't part of it, but the factoid you're using is simply too crude to tell us much. Maybe my evaluation of his defense is off...or maybe it isn't and the team would be better off in close games with someone who plays better defense.

Just pointing out that correlation doesn't imply causation, a maxim of statistical and logical analysis.

 

you came up just short of thinking this all the way through. When you have a versatile Big who has to be respected from the outside, he pulls the Big guy guarding him out of the paint too. Your guards are rebounding vs other guards and Oden is rebounding vs somebody less likely to get the board then him. If Rudy and Roy are the two guards in at the end when the club needs a hoop, I really like the PTB's chances of garnering a rebound/loose ball.

Here's a quote for you from last night which echos this...

"With Rasheed Wallace at the 5, and his ability to stretch the floor, it opened up the lanes for the guards," Bryant said.

If LA can pop 3's at a 40% clip in games, I'm all for him taking them when he gets a good look.

btw... back in the day on separate occasions I saw Drazen and Paxson shooting with a ball boy in a gym I was playing pickup in. Believe me, 70% is nothing for these guys once they get in a rhythm. Petro was especially amazing... he'd hit 50+, clang! and then make the next 30 before the next miss over and over. Heck, I've made fifteen 3's* in a row practicing more then a few times.

STOMP

*college 3's