Politics Indiana: Trump in a romp, Sanders ahead of Clinton, CNN reports Cruz dropping out, Kasich too

The polls have not pegged Trump pretty perfectly all along.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politics/indiana-primary-what-to-watch/



Actual:



Off by ~10%, underestimated Cruz, too.

 

49% vs 53%

That's off by ~10%.

It's not accurate.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/03/u...on-donald-trump-heres-what-it-means.html?_r=0

Polls Were Way Off on Donald Trump. Here’s What It Means.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-ohio-republican-presidential-primary

Polls: Kasich 40.1%, Trump 37.1%
Actual: Kasich 47%, Trump 36%

It's not so good for Hiiar/Sanders.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/

Why The Polls Missed Bernie Sanders’s Michigan Upset

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-how-bernie-sanders-won-indiana-20160503-story.html

How Bernie Sanders beat the polls and won Indiana

 

How much is Mags paying you to post about Trump?

 

Maddow. Take it for what it's worth (not much).

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/new-polling-points-raised-ceiling-republican-frontrunner

New polling points to a raised ceiling for Republican frontrunner

As the race for the Republican presidential nomination has unfolded, there’s been ample talk about Donald Trump’s “ceiling.” The argument has long been that the New York developer may enjoy support from some modest contingent within the GOP, but there’s a limit to his appeal. The question is when Trump would reach that cap and where it stands.

But the campaign season progressed, and Trump’s national support grew, there was a near-constant reevaluation of what, exactly, this ceiling might be. As of late yesterday, it appears we’ll have to adjust our assumptions about the limits of his Republican backing once again.

 

I'm posting against Hiliar.

 

Utah.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/utah-republican/

 

If polls are no good and shouldn't be believed, Denny, why are you constantly posting them?

barfo

 

Mags is paying him $2 per post.

 

It's the best we have, as far as the "current score" is concerned. It's useful, but not gospel.

 

He pays $5 for cute memes he can post on twitter.

 

So we should look at them, but believe in them only to the extent that they agree with your preferences.

barfo

 

You do that.

I look at them and look for trends. You can have polls from 2 pollsters that are different. The RCP average isn't an accurate picture of the peoples' sentiment - it's just an average of poll results where the polls are radically different types. Some polls are likely voters, some are registered voters, some are just the population at large. What the RCP average does tell you is the most recent polls favor whichever candidates and an indication of the strength of the sentiment. Not accurate.

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders/481389/

The 'Never Clinton' Campaign
Meet the Bernie Sanders supporters who say they won’t switch allegiances, no matter what happens in the general election.

 

Americans’ Distaste For Both Trump And Clinton Is Record-Breaking

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...or-both-trump-and-clinton-is-record-breaking/

 

If there were EVER a year for a strong centrist third-party candidate to make a run, this would be it. If the Libertarians could put forth somebody who's socially progressive, fiscally conservative, and not crazy, that person would stand a great chance.

Not gonna happen though.